Sunday, April 25, 2004

Crazy like a fox 

Buzzflash thinks Kerry should take the offensive on the smear campaign Editorial: Galling smears But I think Kerry is running a Matrix campaign -- he is letting his opponents exhaust themselves, and, by their increasingly bizarre smear campaigns, make themselves look ridiculous. I think Kerry knows its a long, long time to November, and the majority of the American public won't really be paying a lot of attention to politics until mid-September.
By then, I think it is likely that Bush will be defeating himself:
- the situation in Iraq will likely have continued to deteriorate, with another 200 to 300 soldiers dead, more cities declaring themselves "free", more car bombs, more pipeline fires, more talk of a military draft, etc, and Bush will have been forced to go to Congress for more money for Iraq and Afganistan
- the 9/11 Commission report will produce a public howl for high-profile resignations at the FBI and the CIA
- the Phlame investigation will do likewise to Cheney's staff
- interest rates will have risen enough to endanger any economic recovery, there will be another few million unemployed, and the housing market in the States will begin a freefall.
- the lack of progress on any of the Bush "initiatives" like the gay marriage amendment, the Mexican immigration plan, the trip to Mars etc will be even more glaringly obvious
- And Bush will continue to try to run as the "war president", a position which may become increasingly hollow when he is no longer technically "in charge" in Iraq. And I'll bet Kerry is hoping that Bush succeeds in capturing Bin Laden, which would further undercut the "war president" image -- the public will ask who he is still "at war" against once Bin Laden is gone.

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