Monday, April 05, 2004

No elections 

In discussing the violence today in Iraq, Josh Marshall writes that the Shia are thinking "why not let their American and Sunni enemies bloody each other into exhaustion in the central Iraq and sit back and wait on the day -- not too distant, certainly -- when they would inherit the new Iraqi state? "
For once, I disagree with Josh. The Shia know, better than anyone, how unlikely it is that they will inherit Iraq -- they know they will have to fight for it. Chalabi or some other man with a mustache will take over as soon as the Americans let him. And because he know he could never be elected, he will find one reason after another to cancel any votes, until his milia (previously known as the Saddam Fedayeen) are strong enough for a military takeover.
My prediction -- there will never be actual elections (as we know the term) in Iraq. The only question is whether we will have a military dictatorship under Chalabi, or a theorcratic dictatorship under an iman.

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