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Tuesday, June 29, 2004

Some more random thoughts on the election 

Next election - 2006 - I think it will be a long time (like two years or more) before we go to the polls again unless the Liberals decide to go.
The Bloc won't want another election any time soon -- they have nowhere to go except down now. Basically, the Liberals want 25 more seats in Quebec, which they can only get from the Bloc. Bloc support in Quebec is soft -- it was based on Quebec anger over the sponsorship scandal. Once that is over (and presuming that Martin himself doesn't get tainted with it)the Bloc has no issues to win on next time. So they will want to hang onto their seats now as long as they can by supporting the Liberals as often as possible. Martin is in a position of strength with the Bloc, not a position of weakness.
The NDP won't want a quick election, either. They did pretty badly, really, in spite of Layton's rhetoric, and they need to regroup -- their vote went to the Liberals, and even more will go if Martin does a half-decent job.
And the Conservatives won't want a quick election -- they need time to find an Ontario leader who can speak French (sorry, Brenda). The long knives will be out for Harper now.
Proportional referendum? Even if Layton gets a national referundum on proportional representation, who will vote for it? I would predict 65-35 against. Look at how resentful people were when the party leaders picked even a few candidates - I think the CBC said Martin picked 8, out of 308 ridings, and we had losers crying all over the place. So imagine how people would feel if the party leaders picked everyone in the government? I think its just too gigantic a step, in a country as diverse and individualistic as ours, to expect that people will not want to pick their own representative, however flawed the first-past-the-post system is, rather than have a representative picked for them somehow from a slate.
Sask outcome - In Saskatchewan, Liberal support picked up quite a bit -- this is why the NDP lost their two seats here --the usual NDP vote went to the liberals instead. It was not enough for either the liberals or NDP to win, so conservatives took the seats. So it will be interesting to see what happens next time.
And thank you Jesus - Jim Pankiw is gone, gone, gone! After all the local concern about whether he would win again by dividing his opponents, in the end he finished FOURTH, behind the Conservatives, the Liberals AND the NDP. This only proves there is a God.

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