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Wednesday, July 21, 2004

Kerry by a nose, so far 

I don't get it. I keep reading news stories about how poorly Kerry/Edwards are doing in the polls. When I checked the July polls at the Polling Report WH2004: General for the Kerry/Edwards vs Bush/Cheney match ups, this is what I found:
Pew (1,568 surveyed July 8-18): Kerry 46% Bush 44%
Christian Science monitor (842 surveyed July 12-17) Kerry 44% Bush 41%
Marist College (938 surveyed July 12-15) Kerry 47% Bush 46%
CBS/NYT (823 surveyed July 11-15) Kerry 49% Bush 44%
Democracy Corps (1,010 surveyed July 10-13) Kerry 52% Bush 45%
WP (721 surveyed July 8-11) Kerry 46% Bush 46%
CNN/USA Today (705 surveyed July 8-11) Kerry 50% Bush 46%
Newsweek (1,001 surveyed July 8-9) Kerry 47% Bush 44%
Time (774 surveyed July 6-8) Kerry 49% Bush 45%
Zooby (1,008 surveyed July 6-7) Kerry 48% Bush 46%
AP Ipsos (804 surveyed July 5-7) Bush 50% Kerry 46%
NBC (504 surveyed July 6) Kerry 49% Bush 41%
American Research Group (773 surveyed July 1-3) Kerry 49% Bush 45%

So Kerry led every one except AP.
Now, I know that many of these are within the poll's own margin of error. But the tilt toward Kerry/Edwards has been unmistakable for the last two weeks, leading toward the Democratic convention. And Kerry is raising more money than Bush, which is another kind of poll I guess. So obviously lots and lots of people want Kerry/Edwards to win.
Two other poll results worth mentioning: Newsweek also reports that only 43% want to see Bush reelected, while 52% do not. Zooby also reports that 43% said Bush deserves reelection, while 53% think its time for someone new.
(Note that Nader wasn't a factor in any of these polls, really -- I didn't bother reporting these stats as well, but though the percentages were a little lower when Nader was included, the gap between Kerry and Bush remained virtually the same.)

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