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Monday, November 01, 2004

Kerry - EV 290 

Well, here's the CathiefromCanada prediction. Not mathematically precise, I know, but I think it will be 290 or higher for Kerry.
Today's electoral vote predictor has Kerry at 298, not including New Mexico.
I was talking today with an American professor who had voted absentee and was worried that Kerry hadn't "closed the deal". Well, its always easier to vote for someone who is 60-40 rather than 48-48, of course -- but I remembered something that either Churchill or Eisenhower said before D-Day -- that the chance of D-Day success was about 50-50, and it had taken four years and the combined might of the free world to get that single 50-50 chance.
Various bloggers have said this already, but let me chime in -- what Democrats and progressives have achieved, in less than two years, is magnificent.
Following the mid-terms, Democrats were in total disarray, demoralized, disorganized, half-caught by Bush's charm, impressed by his political performance at the UN and in Congress, and ensnared by the patriotic idea that anyAmerican Leader should be supported after 9/11. Then came Howard Dean, proving that the Beltway pundits were getting it wrong about how Bush and his war in Iraq were universally beloved and supported. Then came the nine Democrats, who had to vie for the nomination by out-democrating each other. Finally out of the pack came John Kerry, a fighter, principled, a leader. And his Democrats are organized, on message, enthusiastic, and getting to the polls already in record numbers.
So maybe its still a 50-50 chance, but you created that chance for yourselves with your hard work and dedication to democracy. I congratulate you and I will be cheering for you tomorrow.

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