Monday, March 28, 2022

Today's News: "a war that defies reason"

 

This photo of a broken Russian tank illustrates Hunter's story tonight on Daily Kos -- "Making sense of a battlefield that defies logic in a war that defies reason":

Anyone who says they know what will happen next is lying; there are simply too many moving parts. Russia faces massive logistical challenges, but still has an enormous military and, possibly, enormous stockpiles. A single advance by either side could fundamentally change the shape of the war. The Russian economy is in utter shambles—but Putin may have more reasons to escalate the war, drawing in NATO itself, than he does to retreat. And during all of it, Ukraine's civilians are dying.
Earlier today, Hunter wrote another article about why Russia is torturing Ukraine with pointless shelling of its cities, and concludes the reason is basic cowardice: 
Why are Russian generals firing into Ukrainian cities, at targets that can't and won't fire back? Because it's one of the few logistical operations the grift-riddled, impossibly corrupt military infrastructure can still execute. 
If you're a Russian general looking to show that you're working hard to achieve implausible Kremlin objectives, parking yourself outside Mariupol or Kharkiv and shelling neighborhoods into wastelands of broken concrete is a no-muss path to, if not glory, at least not being called back to Russia in preparation for your fatal "heart attack." 
It's where Russian generals attempt to do almost anything else that the system breaks down. But hunkering down in one place, with a static defensive perimeter and a direct rail, road, or major port to provide supplies and ammunition? That, the generals can still do. 
Some signs also that Russian units may be starting to withdraw:
More discussion today about Biden's speech -- I think we will realize at some point that Biden has been far ahead of many of us in understanding the the war outcome, and he is working to teach us what needs to happen: At Progress Pond, Martin Longman writes Biden knows what he's doing: 
...Russia is now an isolated, pariah state. It will remain so as long as Putin is in power.  
There can be no lifting of sanctions or concessions of territory (unless Ukraine insists on conceding it), and no reward or face-saving whatsoever for what Putin has done....
This isn’t just some didactic position of America or NATO or the West. Putin is not a viable future leader of Russia from a Russian perspective. He has brought complete disaster upon his country and the only way the country can begin a process of recovery is with fresh leadership. 
They have to bring it about, and hearing the U.S. president make this point clear will help clarify things....
The goal here is for Russia to leave Ukraine entirely, including Crimea and Dombas, and pay serious reparations. The second goal is for Russia to rejoin the community of nations, which means normal diplomatic and economic relationships, and this is simply never going to be possible with Putin in charge. 
Russian business leaders probably understand this. Russian military leadership probably understands this. And they are the ones who will have to remove Putin from power and negotiate the peace.... 
when foreign policy experts get upset that Putin now has less incentive to negotiate, you have to consider how ridiculous it is to think Putin would make the necessary concessions. If he were somehow willing, which is laughable, he’d have to resign in disgrace the next day. What Biden said didn’t change that. 
  And a fascinating interview here: This is brilliant: A remarkable performance at the championships by Ukrainian figure skaters Oleksandra Nazarova and Maksym Nikitin, who prepared in just a month and could not have costumes made: And in other news today: We switched over to the Oscars just as the "Slap Heard 'Round The World" was being broadcast and wow, what a way to derail the entire show. Thousands of tweets later, I saw this one:
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