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Saturday, October 26, 2024

Wrapping up the week with some great news for the Sask NDP and Carla Beck


Carla Beck may well be Saskatchewan's new premier, according to today's Mainstreet poll:

This is such great news:
I have been reading news snippets over the last week or so about how Carla Beck and the NDP are moving ahead of Scott Moe's tired old Saskatchewan Party but I couldn't really believe it. 
The Mainstreet poll highlighted above finally puts Beck ahead by more than the margin of error, from surveys completed two days ago.
Not only that, but hey...Carla Beck will make a great premier!

 
Now, we don't know yet exactly where all that NDP support is coming from -- if Saskatoon and Regina all go NDP but the rural seats and the smaller cities go Sask Party, or mostly SP, then Moe may still be able to achieve a majority government. The NDP has to flip 15 seats to achieve a majority.
But one thing notable about Saskatchewan now is that we have several far right parties --- Buffalo, Saskatchewan United -- who are the 15% "other party" in the Mainstreet poll, and who might take enough support away from the Sask Party in some ridings to allow the NDP to slide up the middle and win a few crucial seats. 
I saw an Insightrix poll from last week that also showed this good news, but I wasn't sure whether to believe it.
Now, it looks like maybe its true.
The final day for voting is next Monday -- so I'll be keeping my fingers crossed.
Tom Parkin, who did the bar graph in the tweet above, also has a substack post where he draws some broader conclusions about why the Conservatives aren't winning provincial elections now: Conservatives served with third straight provincial loss. Is Saskatchewan next?
...There is a clear thirst for change in Canada. Federal polling and provincial election results show it. But it seems conservatives are not trusted agents of change.
Poilievre might want to take note. It’s true the desire for change in BC was not as high as it is against the Trudeau Liberals. But there existed a majority constituency for change. But not John Rustad change.
And many of the reasons voters didn’t trust Rustad are also on offer from Poilievre. The convoy connection. Conspiracy theories. Bigoted tweets. No economic plan. An unrealistic platform hiding cuts. Not trusted with health care.
Like Rustad, Poilievre appears to think he doesn’t owe it to voters to provide candidates or a plan that can be trusted. And to that arrogance Poilievre adds the mysterious secret about foreign meddling in his Conservative Party that he doesn’t want to know about.
The string of conservative losses suggests that as it becomes time for Canadians to give a closer inspection, Poilievre may have wished he had built a stronger base of trust rather than relying on an aura of inevitability to put him in the prime minister’s office.
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