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Monday, October 14, 2024

Today's News: Freaking Out about the Presidential Polls

 
https://www.270towin.com/mp

Three weeks to go and the Presidential polls are freaking everyone out:
"Hurricane Sharpie Land"

i am convinced they are showing him photoshopped polls that he can win NY state because he wants to win NY, this is hurricane sharpie land

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— Shiv Ramdas (@nameshiv.bsky.social) October 11, 2024 at 8:03 AM
Why is this happening? 
So that, on Nov 6, irregardless of the vote totals, Trump can announce he won the election and "prove" this by claiming the polls showed he would win, so Harris must be trying to steal the election just like Biden did:
  
For more info about polling: 
From Talking Points Memo, Josh Marshall describes how pollsters "herd" together: 

From the New York Times, an article about "weighting on recalled vote": 

From The American Prospect, an article about how presidential polls in history have never been right:
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2 comments:

  1. Anonymous7:52 am

    LV's (likely voers ) are those who voted in the last electin and are concidered the gold standard by pollsters. This method ignores the cohort of 18 to 22 year old who are voting for the first time. Normally their turnout is low but I think Roberts and the Roe decision may motivate this group ( especially the young women ). There could be a surprise from them in three weeks.

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  2. Anonymous6:01 pm

    The only vote that counts is the one on voting day/days.
    here in BC some years ago it was a foregone conclusion that the NDP would replace Christy Clarks Liberals; until they didn't.
    That said, most of the USA electorate have already made up their minds and hundreds of millions of $$dollars is been spent on a fickle 5% or so of undecided voters!
    The act of voting is a strange affair?
    TB

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