Harper + Duceppe="several years of rule"

An article "Grit Removal" in today's American Spectator blog, John Tabin writes:

. . . It's possible, though not likely, that the Conservatives will win an outright majority in Parliament. But even if they don't, and need to form a coalition government, they will have more of a chance to move an agenda than one would expect. As a political consultant explained to me in Washington a few months ago before heading north to work for the Conservatives, the leaders of the Tories' prospective coalition partner, the separatist Bloc Quebecois, are willing to give Harper several years of rule (but expect lots of Tory reforms to exempt Quebec) . . .

Emphasis mine.

My son, the candidate

Mike is running for the Greens in Blackstrap. What an experience it has been for Mike -- I know it would never ever have occured to me to run for federal office at the age of 22. We're very proud parents, of course, and we've been helping out wherever we can.
Mike is his own person, with his own political ideas, running his own campaign, and filming everything as he goes. His film project will be unique.
In the last election, the Green candidate in Blackstrap got a thousand votes, compared to the winner's 15,000. But Mike's argument is this: if Blackstrap elects Canada's first Green MP, then tens of thousands of Greens from across Canada will want to move here, and that will be great for the constituency and the province.
Mike has a point, doesn't he?
His sister wrote this about him:

. . . his approach is novel. He's seeking to bring an important aspect of Canadian society into the lime-light, so to speak. Our political processes are often a complete mystery to those who are not involved directly and many have no idea what it takes, who to talk with, or how to go about becoming a Member of Parliament in this country. One thing I have always appreciated about Mike is his unique vision for the world, his ability to sort through the political BS to the core of the issue, and more than anything his unending sense of humor - which I believe to be the most important for a candidate in his position. And you may write this off as a proud, perhap boastful, sister of similar political mind - but when it comes to the seriousness of the leadership hopefuls in this country I make no false claims. Mike Fornssler is going to change the face of politics in this country, one film, one election, one speech, one interview at a time.

Good and hard

First, Brian Gable from Friday's Globe and Mail:


Now, here are a few apt H. L. Mencken quotes about politics and democracy:

A national political campaign is better than the best circus ever heard of, with a mass baptism and a couple of hangings thrown in.

Democracy is the art and science of running the circus from the monkey cage.

And finally, my personal favorite:

Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want and deserve to get it, good and hard.

Hello, breakfast!

I haven't been keeping up with Oddball News lately -- though with the amount of blogging I am doing about the election, my reader could beg to differ.
Anyway, here's one of the stories I missed -- Hamster, snake make a strange pair:

Zookeepers at Tokyo's Mutsugoro Okoku zoo presented the hamster - whose name [Gohan] means meal in Japanese - to Aochan [a Japanese rat snake] as a tasty morsel in October, after the snake refused to eat frozen mice. But instead of indulging, Aochan decided to make friends with the furry rodent, according to keeper Kazuya Yamamoto. The pair have shared a cage since. "I've never seen anything like it. Gohan sometimes even climbs onto Aochan to take a nap on his back," Yamamoto said.

Oh, if only our politicians could get along so well, eh?
(AP Photo/Mutsugoro Okoku Zoo, Kyota Nomura)

Conservatives + Bloc = Government

Remember -- the magic number is 156 (including the Speaker).
Jason Cherniak has got a much better handle than I have on what is happening in the ridings across the country. Here is his best-case/worst-case scenario, which provides us with the likely range of results:

. . . in the best case scenario, a Liberal loss of 13 in Atlantic and Quebec, a Tory gain of 10 in Atlantic and Quebec and a BQ gain of 3 in Quebec . . .
Lib - 120
Con - 108
BQ - 56
NDP - 24
At worst for the Liberals, they lose 8 in Atlantic, 10 in Quebec and 20 in Ontario. That would give approximate numbers of:
Con - 130
Lib - 94
BQ - 56
NDP - 28

This prediction is also quite close to the Canadian Election Project numbers, which presently predict:
Con - 108
Lib - 93
NDP - 23
BQ - 58
Other - 1
Too close to call - 25
So the question of the day is - what happens next?
Only in the Cherniak best case scenario is there a chance that Martin remains as Prime Minister, and even then he would need NDP support plus some of the Bloc or Conservatives to vote with him.
In either of Cherniak's scenarios, if the Conservativea and the Bloc form an alliance then Harper would be Prime Minister. So does anyone think Harper wouldn't do exactly this -- work out a deal with Duceppe so that Harper can be PM and Quebec can be de facto independent?
Is this the government that Canada actually wants?
Well, if you vote Conservative on Monday, this is the government you will get.

Great line of the day

In Comments, The Rev referred us to his election post, and it was certainly worthwhile to click the link. Here is some of what he says:

Given the state of the polls in Canada at the moment, it would appear that Canadian voters, having seen how things have gone south of the border for the last six months, have said to themselves, "enough of the this solid economic development and sane, sensible, progressive social policy - gimme some incompetent bible-thumping yahoos who want to disassemble the government and fast, before its too late for us to get in on all the fun and games in Iraq." They appear to have decided that because Paul Martin and the Liberals are 'arrogant' and the previous Liberal administration probably skimmed some money from the till, they are going to vote for the Bush-Lite Conservatives.
Great idea Canada. Very clever.
Babies and bathwater, amputated noses and spite-worthy faces - pick your similie my fellow Canucks, but the bottom line is that you're making a horrible mistake.

Emphasis mine. Read the whole thing -- it gets even better after this part.

In the stars

Now a psychic is predicting a Liberal minority:

A psychic and an astrologer who claim to have predicted past political winners and losers say Martin is destined for a second minority government. "I look at him and I see his aura. It is so strong that it is clear this election is meant to be his,' said Marra, a psychic at the Psychic Boutique at Yonge St. and Wilson Ave. . . . In his 35 years as an astrologer, Robin Armstrong, who works in Aurora, said he has rarely seen an election where the media opinion of who is going to win has contrasted so much with the star charts. Armstrong also predicted a Liberal minority . . .

And just for fun, here are the horoscopes for Monday that I found on the net:

Paul Martin's horoscope : You will be the focus of attention today and, yes, you'll like it. There is, however, a danger that the suspicious side of your nature will get the upper hand and instead of just enjoying being everyone's pet you will try to rationalize why you are so popular. Put your mind in neutral for the next 24 hours and let your feelings guide you.
Stephen Harper: What's done is done and cannot be undone, so stop looking back and wishing things had been different because it is a total waste of your time and energy. The only things that matter are where you are now and where you intend to be in the very near future. Mars in your birth sign will provide the momentum you need.

Jack Layton and Gilles Duceppe are both Cancers and have the same intriguing horoscope for Monday:

Venus, planet of love, in your opposite sign of Capricorn brings relationship issues to the fore, and because Venus links with Mars, planet of passion, today you will leave the object of your affection in no doubt at all how much you care for them. But don't go overboard about it -- love is one thing, emotionalism quite another.

And for Jim Harris, well, he's an Aquarius:
When the moon is in the Seventh House
And Jupiter aligns with Mars
Then peace will guide the planets
And love will steer the stars
This is the dawning of the age of Aquarius . . .

Take a guess

Is DarkSyde describing the Christian Right, or fundamentalist Wahhabism?

They are vehemently against abortion, they resist progressive woman's rights. They view homosexuality as a crime against nature and God, some advocate the death penalty as an option for it. Separation of Church and State is despised by these folks; they insist the nation is founded on the principles of their religion, and they work hard to bring that de facto theocracy about. They deplore strong language, gay characters, and sexual content on TV and in the media. And they ignore the Geneva Convention when it suits their ideological purposes, including provisions against torture or due process. They're anti-stem cell research, pro-creationism, and generally distrustful of science. These folks are easily whipped into a state of frenzy with ideological manipulation to the point where they will commit violence, or at least tacitly endorse that violence is acceptable, if it advances their Divine agenda. They then take great pains to justify that violence, including unprovoked attack of civilian areas, under certain conditions, with convoluted theological gymnastics. They are almost to the man pro-death penalty . . .

You'll have to click the link to find out which group DarkSyde is referring to, I think. Its a scary thought, too.

Quid pro quo?

The Gazetteer informs us that The Washington Times had chimed in again on the Canadian election. And it looks like John Reynolds is now making Canadian foreign policy:

. . . John Reynolds, official opposition house leader, said while trade disputes between Canada and the United States will remain, the tone of political discourse will change. "We had a government that for 12 years in Canada has called [Americans] words like 'coward' and 'stupid,' " said Mr. Reynolds, who co-chairs the Conservative elections campaign. "That would change. Our party is not filled with anti-American people like it is within the Liberal Party."
Mr. Reynolds, who spoke to The Washington Times after a boisterous rally of Conservative sympathizers in a downtown Montreal hotel Wednesday, said Conservative leader Stephen Harper and President Bush should sit down and work out the trade problems.
"We've been friends and neighbors for a long, long time," Mr. Reynolds said. "We are major trading partners in the world, we've got a lot to offer each other and we have to get that friendship back on track just like you'd have with your next-door neighbor."
Mr. Reynolds said the first practical step in improving security cooperation between Canada and the United States would be to restart discussions about joining the anti-ballistic missile program.
"We've got to sit down and discuss this. There is a quid pro quo for everything," he said.
But how far the Conservatives push their social, political and economic agenda will depend on whether they manage to gain a majority in Canada's 308-seat House of Commons, or will have a minority government . . . On the foreign policy front Mr. Harper has promised to improve Canada's relations with the United States, but also to take "a tougher stand on international trade disputes."
Prime Minister Paul Martin, on the other hand, has run an uninspired campaign full of gaffes. And his attack ads trying to paint Mr. Harper as a religious zealot with a hidden agenda, or as an American lapdog, have backfired. One of the ads quoted from a Washington Times opinion piece by Patrick Basham where he claims that, "If elected, Mr. Harper will quickly become Mr. Bush's new best friend internationally and the poster boy for his ideal foreign leader."
Speaking to reporters Thursday Mr. Martin again went on attack. "We've never seen a major political party with such a conservative agenda as this one, an agenda which has really been taken from the extreme right in the United States," said Mr. Martin.

The Gazetteer asks what the quid quo pro is going to be. I wonder too.

An unnamed whale

We can be grateful for small mercies -- at least the whale wasn't around London long enough for some newspaper to give him a name!
That said, I always find it remarkable how much people can care about the fate of an animal in trouble, how quickly we come to their aid, and how much effort we can put into trying to save them.
The BBC reported that "As the rescuers moved the whale applause broke out among the 3,000 onlookers . . . as the whale passed beneath." Yes, I would have applauded, too.
(AP Photo/Tom Hevezi)

Fun with Fotos

Martin leaps over barriers:

Photo by Paul Chiasson,CP

while Harper runs into brick walls:

Photo by REUTERS/Andy Clark

"Its not him, its us"

Its like the old break-up line "Its not you, its me."
I fear a Harper election partly because of what he would do, but mainly because of what such a victory would say about us as Canadians.
Here is a description about what has happened to people in the United States over the last decade, which purports to explain why they vote for Republicans. It is what I DON'T want to see happening in Canada:

Looking at the data from 1992 to 2004, Shellenberger and Nordhaus found a country whose citizens are increasingly authoritarian while at the same time feeling evermore adrift, isolated, and nihilistic. They found a society at once more libertine and more puritanical than in the past, a society where solidarity among citizens was deteriorating, and, most worrisomely to them, a progressive clock that seemed to be unwinding backward on broad questions of social equity. Between 1992 and 2004, for example, the percentage of people who said they agree that "the father of the family must be the master in his own house" increased ten points, from 42 to 52 percent, in the 2,500-person Environics survey. The percentage agreeing that "men are naturally superior to women" increased from 30 percent to 40 percent. Meanwhile, the fraction that said they discussed local problems with people they knew plummeted from 66 percent to 39 percent. Survey respondents were also increasingly accepting of the value that "violence is a normal part of life" -- and that figure had doubled even before the al-Qaeda terrorist attacks.

And when we also get the news that American conservatives are licking their chops about a Harper victory, that scares me too.

Great line of the day

Michael Moore speaks out on the Canadian election:

. . . Far be it from me, as an American, to suggest what you should do. You already have too many Americans telling you what to do. Well, actually, you've got just one American who keeps telling you to roll over and fetch and sit. I hope you don't feel this appeal of mine is too intrusive but I just couldn't sit by, as your friend, and say nothing. Yes, I agree, the Liberals have some 'splainin' to do. And yes, one party in power for more than a decade gets a little... long. But . . . There are ways at the polls to have your voices heard other than throwing the baby out with the bath water.
These are no ordinary times, and as you go to the polls on Monday, you do so while a man running the nation to the south of you is hoping you can lend him a hand by picking Stephen Harper because he's a man who shares his world view. Do you want to help George Bush by turning Canada into his latest conquest? Is that how you want millions of us down here to see you from now on? The next notch in the cowboy belt? C'mon, where's your Canadian pride? I mean,
if you're going to reduce Canada to a cheap download of Bush & Co., then at least don't surrender so easily. Can't you wait until he threatens to bomb Regina? Make him work for it, for Pete's sake . . .

Emphasis mine.
Well, Michael, thanks for noticing, and we're trying our best.
Thanks to From the Heartland for noticing this story.

Cerberus sums it up

In The Final Weekend: Final Thoughts, Cerberus writes exactly what I was thinking -- how did they know?
Anyway, go read it if you want a concise summary of just about everything important for this election..

Where have these people been? (Part Two)

Part One is here.
And its about time people started speaking out.
Here's the most recent list of Conservative opponents, from the :Toronto Star:

- The Canadian Climate Coalition complained that the Tories were the only party that refused to respond to a questionnaire on the Kyoto Protocol, and accused Harper of moving Canada 'into the same camp as U.S. President George W. Bush.'
- The Council of Canadians expressed concern about recent comments by Conservative MP James Lunney favouring bulk exports of Canadian water, and called on Harper to clarify his position on the issue.
- Sixty-six economists signed a joint statement warning that the tax breaks being offered by the major parties would leave a huge deficit in social services and hurt the poor. They took special aim at the Conservative proposal to eliminate taxes on reinvested capital gains, saying it would 'deliver very large tax savings to a tiny group of high-income Canadians.'
- Phil Fontaine, national chief of the Assembly of First Nations, said he's not satisfied by recent comments by Harper that the party supports the principles of the Kelowna native deal, but not the final agreement and dollar amount. 'Any suggestion that one supports the objectives and the targets but not the approximately $5 billion allocated to these targets is of great concern to us because we won't be able to meet the targets without money,' he said.
- The gay-rights group Egale warned: 'Stephen Harper goes ahead with his plan to reopen the divisive equal marriage debate, it will lead Canada into a legal swamp.' On Monday, 104 law professors wrote an open letter to Harper saying that his plan to reopen the equal marriage debate would lead to "legal confusion, a lack of uniformity, and unnecessary, protracted and costly litigation."
- Harper also faced questions from reporters Tuesday on claims that the Tories harbour a secret agenda to reopen the abortion debate. On Monday, Dr. Henry Morgentaler, the father of the pro-choice movement in Canada, had said Conservatives can't be trusted on the abortion issue. But Harper maintained he "won't be initiating or supporting abortion legislation." "I'll use whatever influence I have in Parliament to be sure that such a matter doesn't come to a vote," he added.

Yeah, Stephen, sure. Surprisingly, I'm sure, your influence just may not be quite enough...
And if you need any more talking points, Rabble associate publisher Duncan Cameron provides this concise summary of why the Conservatives would be a bad choice for Canada:

On policy, Conservative leader Stephen Harper is clear. He is not bound by a parliamentary decision to approve same sex marriage. Nor would his government support the international convention on climate change known as the Kyoto Accord, or the federal-provincial agreement on aboriginal issues reached recently at Kelowna.
He is ready to re-start negotiations to make Canada a partner in the American first strike missile system known perversely as missile defence.
The reason Harper favours the so-called traditional definition of marriage is not just to ensure that gay and lesbian Canadians are made to feel insulted and demeaned. He also wants to prove to the courts that the House of Commons is not bound by legal decisions Conservatives do not agree with.
Similarly, with the Kyoto accord, he can demonstrate how a Conservative government can step down, and walk away from an international treaty ratified by Canada, in order to show solidarity with the Bush Republicans, and the U.S. . . . Just in case anybody missed it, under a Harper government, payment of the capital gains tax will be waived if you “re-invest” the gain within six months by buying a summer cottage, a speculative property to rent out, or some more stocks.
This capital gains holiday is super expensive to implement, and worthless to society. It could, however be dangerous, having the power to provoke speculative booms, and accelerate busts. Since it will favour the wealthy greatly, it has not been subject to rigorous examination in the media
Announced for the first time with the rest of the Conservative program last Friday, the capital gains measure far overshadows the attention-getting proposed one per cent reduction in the GST, trumpeted at the outset of the election campaign as a measure of social justice. It turns out the Conservatives do favour the rich even when they pretend to be looking out for working families. Their tax policy proves it.

If the Conservatives win, its time to get into the house flipping business, I guess.