The rumour mill is buzzing about Trudeau tonight

   

The rumour is that Trudeau will resign today.

That typing you hear tonight is dozens of Canadian political journalists getting a jump on their "end of an era" political obits. 

But doesn't it strike you as odd that there is nothing - NOTHING - actually causing Trudeau to resign except for increasingly inexplicable "Trudeau fatigue" and falling poll numbers -- for a leader that crowds of Canadians still greet with enthusiasm? A leader respected around the world? And he is feared by Maple MAGA. And Elon. And Putin. And Trump. Who all worked so hard to undermine him.

Trudeau hasn't always been right, but he has always tried to be.

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I just hope Trudeau doesn't leave right away -- the usual Canadian pattern would be for him to announce a leadership convention in April or May, then stay on as Prime Minister until then. 

There is no particular reason for him to rush off right away -- no health issue, no scandal. 

And better to stay as PM until a new leader has a chance to get better known across the country. Also,

Trudeau really needs to stick around until the Foreign Interference report comes out the end of January. And until we see what happens with Trump's tariff threats. The longer we avoid an election, the more the Liberal programs (dental care, pharmacare, daycare, school lunches, Indigenous reconciliation, plus Ukraine support) will be entrenched, reducing the risk that a new Conservative government would immediately dismantle them.

The stupid, it burns!

Oh, we're in trouble now. 

Trump is babbling about windmills again:

I’m normally against high taxes but I think we could balance the budget here via a 100-percent levy on morons

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— George Conway (@gtconway.bsky.social) January 4, 2025 at 11:39 AM

And Musk is obsessed with UK politics now:

Musk has been tweeting relentlessly about the UK govt for 7 hours straight

This is an incoming adviser to the US admin lest we forget, who basically lives in Mar-a-Lago

Musk’s radicalisation is intensifying, and still little sign Trump will dislodge him from his inner circle pic.twitter.com/ZlM99pkR1W

— Josh Self (@Josh_Self_) January 3, 2025

Writing I love: "We're All Made of Horrible, Beautiful Scars"

I found this piece of great writing last summer, when we were in the midst of our own heartbreak, and it was just so thoughtful and meaningful: 

Cole Haddon / 5 am Story Talk 

We're All Made of Horrible, Beautiful Scars 

Australian rocker Nick Cave, Native American activist/poet John Trudell, and a 14th-century Japanese shogun have thoughts about how to put ourselves back together through art 

It is a story told in anecdotes, about a teenager who fell off a cliff, about a fire that killed a man's whole family, about a 14th century Shogun, about Japanese philosophy, about the death of Haddon's father. I can't excerpt it - it needs to be read as a complete piece -- except I can explain this:

 ...  Kintsugi, or “golden joiner”, is the Japanese art of repairing broken pottery with lacquer that’s been mixed with powdered gold, silver, or platinum. It treats breakage — but, really, repair — as part of the history of an object. No attempt is made to disguise the “scar”, so to say. The cracks and repairs are, instead, part of the life of the object.... 

 In their own ways, all of the people in Haddon's stories found how to continue:  

My heart doesn't hurt anymore 

But my soul does, maybe 

That's what souls are for, to 

Take the hurt the heart can't take 

The heart can't take 

...But really, the act of putting ourselves back together through our art. The breakages, the scars, the hanging on lines on full display. Because nothing remains the same forever.

"Good Luck Trudeau"

Well, I don't know whether Trudeau will leave or not, but I for one would really miss him:

Genuinely one the funniest jokes I’ve seen played on Trudeau.

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— Steve Boots (@steveboots.bsky.social) January 1, 2025 at 10:49 AM

If Trudeau was only going to do one year-end interview, I'm glad it was with Mark Critch:

   

Epic!

An epic book forward, by Caimh McDonnell in his book Disaster.

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Getting ready for 2025

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Actually, this probably applies to 2025 also:

The eerie strip I published at the end of 2019, just before the pandemic. pic.twitter.com/uqbgCxQEpa

— Stephan Pastis (@stephanpastis) December 29, 2024

Crime-washing the Trump presidency: "We're finally on our own..."

I've been calling Trump's presidency "Trump 2: The Revenge Tour" and that is exactly what it will be. 

There is nothing so trivial that Trump can't feel insulted about it. 

This is a guy who insisted the National Parks Service endorse his "biggest presidential inauguration ever" claim in 2016. This is the guy who marked up a map with a felt pen then tried to get the press to report on how the National Weather Service actually HAD given him map showing Georgia would be affected by a hurricane - that was in 2018 I think. It was nuts. 

So imagine how angry he is now about the convictions for sexual assault and for his business shenanigans, the 34 felony convictions, the January 6 investigation, the Jack Smith investigation, the Georgia prosecutions, the Florida charges.  And this time, he is making sure that he will have subservient leadership in the FBI, the CIA and the Department of Justice, so he can sic them on everyone who "dissed" him over the last four years. 

So far it appears the American press is just going to go along with it. 

The reporters are likely scared too, of course. And we've already seen plenty of evidence that media ownership is terrified -- looking at you, LA Times, ABC News, the New York Times, the Washington Post...

Weekend funnies

Here's some funny stuff I found recently, as I was looking for something else:

   

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Playing the long game

Trudeau is speaking softly, playing the long game with Trump. This is his only response to all the "51s5 State" bluster from Trump:

Some information about Canada for Americans:https://t.co/EnI8CrF4cB

— Justin Trudeau (@JustinTrudeau) December 26, 2024

I’m still going to maintain Trudeau is right to not engage with the 51st State stuff, and as much as it would make us happy to issue a capital-T Takedown of Trump it’s pretty clear Trump’s trying to bait a reaction and it’s driving him nutty Trudeau isn’t biting

— Evan Scrimshaw (@EScrimshaw) December 25, 2024

"People think that boxing is all about how hard you can hit your opponent. It's not. Boxing is about how hard you can take a hit and keep going. "
-Justin Trudeau #goingthedistance pic.twitter.com/UEEUbsC9Mr

— Bill Rice 🦋 (@2muchfun4me) December 27, 2024

Christmas cartoons and videos and stories. Enjoy!

In honour of Canada's posties - I'm so glad they're back, but I hope they can get the deal they deserve:

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Today's News: Could there be a method to Trump's madness?

So now Trump is talking about the United States invading Mexico, buying Greenland and taking over the Panama Canal as well as Canada. 

Its nuts.

For one thing, this:

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It seems like a joke:

Trump thinks he can buy Greenland, annex Canada, and is picking a fight with Panama. I can’t believe so many people decided they weren’t embarrassed enough the first time and wanted this fucking moron to be president again. 🤦‍♂️

— 😱 Scary Larry 😱 🇺🇦✊🏻🇺🇸🗽 (@aintscarylarry) December 23, 2024

But maybe he's not just babbling, maybe there is reason for this craziness.

Jeff Tiedrich / Everyone is entitled to my own opinion

oh look, Elderly Golfer is a geopolitical madman

Panama, Greenland, Canada and Mexico are all on Donny’s shopping list

...well, shove over, George, and make room — there’s a new worst president ever in town

Donny Convict is also being advised to achieve dominance by fucking shit up on a global scale — but he’s not listening to the neocons, who at least had some level of experience in foreign policy.

no, Donny has surrounded himself with a fucktangle of vainglorious lunatics who have no idea what they’re talking about, and no earthly clue how to achieve their batshit goals.

...on Saturday, Donny threatened to invade Panama and take back the Canal. we all had fun mocking the shit out Donny’s bluster, but he didn’t come up with the idea all by his lonesome.

this clusterfuck-to-come has the ketamine-addled cortex of President-Elect Elon Musk all over it — because you know who depends on global shipping lanes, don’t you?

...last night, Donny took to his failing app to announce that Ken Howery was to be his pick for Ambassador to Denmark — and deep down in the post was an ominous threat. “For purposes of National Security and Freedom throughout the World, the United States of America feels that the ownership and control of Greenland is an absolute necessity.”

so now Donny’s not just asking Denmark to sell us Greenland — he’s demanding it. that’s nice.

this time around, there’s a reason for Donny’s northern land-grab: eventually, climate change is going to make all the Arctic ice go fuckity-bye, opening up new shipping routes at the top of the world. controlling Greenland would put the United States right in the thick of this new profit center.

...so when Donny “jokes” about annexing Canada, you have to wonder — is he really joking? because Canada is also going to be jockeying for primacy as new Arctic shipping lanes open.

...here where we stand today: a demented megalomaniac who will soon have access to a nuclear arsenal — and who would love nothing more than to crown himself King of the World — is being manipulated by one or more greedy plutocrats who have their own business interests at heart.

what could possibly go wrong?

our saving grace, once again, will be that the Sewer Cons are delusional clownfuckers with a track record of failure after failure, and have no idea what they’re doing.

Today's News: "President Musk" memes, Poilievre sell-out, Trump bald, Mangione fade

America fucked around and they're already finding out what they really elected:

Can we just start using WTYS for “We told you so” to save character space over the next 4 years?

— Ron Filipkowski (@RonFilipkowski) December 19, 2024

They thought they were voting for cheaper bacon and they got new conflicts with the EU, Mexico, Canada and Panama.

— Ron Filipkowski (@ronfilipkowski.bsky.social) December 21, 2024 at 8:07 PM

Paul Krugman / Krugman Wonks Out

The Chaos Monkeys Have Already Taken Over the Zoo

The peddlers of misinformation are high on their own supply

...antics like the potential shutdown will do much more damage to the Musk/Trump administration than they realize. (There’s also this other guy — JV Dance or something? — but he clearly doesn’t matter.)

First, since the election financial markets have clearly been betting that Trump will do very little of what he promised during the campaign — that we won’t really have a trade war, just some minor trade skirmishes, that we’ll have symbolic deportations rather than a mass roundup of immigrants, and so on. Markets have, in effect, discounted the disastrous consequences that would follow if Trump honored his own promises.

But a government shutdown in response to completely false claims about what’s in an innocuous short-term funding measure suggests that the peddlers of misinformation are high on their own supply. Trump may really believe that foreigners will pay tariffs, that U.S. trade deficits subsidize the rest of the world, that there’s a reserve army of American workers available to fill the gaps deportation would create. I don’t want to put too much weight on the latest market fluctuations, but it is starting to look as if investors are questioning their own complacency

Second, many, probably most people who voted for Trump believed that he really is the character he played on The Apprentice — a highly competent manager. ...Trump’s edge depended entirely on support from voters who don’t pay much attention to politics

How will these voters react if, as seems all too likely, the second Trump administration is instead marked by rolling chaos?

Anyway, it’s pretty remarkable. Inauguration Day is still a month away, yet the chaos monkeys have already taken over.

Today's News: #IStandWithTrudeau is trending

#IStandWithTrudeau2025 is trending tonight:

Good job. Now carry on fighting the good fight at least until we see where we’re at with the Trump/Musk situation by Inauguration Day and have the foreign interference report in hand at the end of January. No resignation! #IStandWithTrudeau2025

— Charles Prepolec (@sherlockeditor) December 20, 2024

Here's some good news -- the Trudeau GST cuts appear to be working to give the economy a boost:

I work in a restaurant ~ everyone is talking about the tax break.

It is a definite boost for restaurants and the first policy move that I’ve seen truly break through to average people in a long time.

— Jenny-P 🇨🇦 🌻 (@Jenn_Pastrak) December 20, 2024

Today's News: Weakness all around

The government shutdown talk in the United States shows Trump for what he really is -- 

a weak clown

 Oliver Willis / Daily Kos 

Billionaires lead GOP revolt against critical spending bill 

...Led by billionaires who have been appointed by Donald Trump to wield massive influence over his incoming administration, Republican members of Congress are rejecting a last-ditch spending bill just days before a possible government shutdown. 

 House Speaker Mike Johnson has had to reach across the aisle for Democratic assistance to pass the continuing resolution legislation ahead of Friday, the last day before funding dries up. But hard-line Republicans in his own party have voiced their opposition to the bill, which contains economic aid for those hit by recent hurricanes and some relief for farmers. 

 It looks like they’re taking their cues from the likes of failed presidential candidate and billionaire Vivek Ramaswamy, who Trump appointed to lead the advisory (and completely unofficial) Department of Government Efficiency alongside multibillionaire Elon Musk. The obscenely wealthy duo wants the bill killed. 

Canada is giving Trump lots of coverage this week as he has tweeted about Freeland resigning and Canada becoming a US state.

It appears Trump is suffering from CDS, Canadian Deragement Syndrome.

I know you want us, but we're just not that into you.

— J Hunter🍁 (@MrJoKeR604) December 18, 2024

In Canada, Trudeau seems to be going from bad to worse. Grenier gives an excellent summary of the slide in Liberal fortunes since July 2023:

Éric Grenier / The Writ 

Weekly Writ 12/18: After a tough 18 months, will this week end Trudeau? 

How the cycle of bad polling and unforced errors has brought the Liberals where they are today. 

...[Trudeau]seems to have three options available to him, none of them good: he can try to hold on, call an election or resign. The least-bad option for him and his party would seem to be a resignation. A competitive leadership race that names a new prime minister early next year would give the Liberals a fighting (if still long-shot) chance in the next election. By comparison, sacrificing himself on the electoral altar in a snap vote would do little good for the Liberal Party and trying to hold on as prime minister for as long as possible would likely do even more harm. 

Whether or not an election now is the right call for the country as a whole is another matter entirely. Depending on how one views what the Conservatives would do once in office, one could debate that Trudeau giving a successor a chance in the next election later is better than handing over the reins of power to Pierre Poilievre now, but it is increasingly untenable for Trudeau to believe that staying on in his weakened state is the better option for Canada, especially in the context of the looming tariff threat south of the border. 

 Of course, this week’s bombshell didn’t occur in isolation. It’s the culmination of a cycle of series of decisions and events spanning Trudeau’s time in office since 2015 that has been accelerated by the Liberals’ more recent slide in the polls. Attempts to halt that slide resulted in unforced errors, further driving the cycle of bad polls, unforced errors and caucus (and, now, cabinet) unrest.

While the catalyst for the slide might not have explicitly been the cabinet shuffle of July 26, 2023, it certainly seems to have been an inflection point for the government. It was presented as a reset for the Liberals but seemed to many voters to have simply been more of the same. 

Umm....about that deficit? Actually, it's not as bad as we thought.

I was shocked - SHOCKED - when I saw how much the deficit has increased according to the Fall Economic Statement yesterday.  Lots of people were freaking out.

Turns out, it sounds much worse than it actually is. 

Rough math, Canada’s deficit is at like 2.1% of gdp….. A little context: The U.S is at like 6%, The EU guardrail is 3%. The sky is in fact; not falling #Cdnpoli

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— booth4scartown.bsky.social (@booth4scartown.bsky.social) December 16, 2024 at 1:36 PM

Correct, don't let anyone tell you $61B is a terrible deficit. Canada has a larger population and much higher GDP than when Harper was PM. There are reasons for Trudeau to step down. The budget isn't one of them. #cdnpoli #bcpoli #onpoli

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— elcanaco.bsky.social (@elcanaco.bsky.social) December 16, 2024 at 7:59 PM

Dale Smith explains: 

 ...last year’s deficit was larger than expected because the government booked a bunch of legal settlements—primarily for the Indigenous communities—onto last year’s books (which is probably also why the Public Accounts have been delayed). These were one-time costs, so that means the deficit can continue to decline in the future, and economist Armine Yalnizyan noted that this was essentially a gift to the next government because it’s off their books, and they can make it look like they were more prudent managers when that’s not necessarily the case. Nevertheless, the government didn’t try to tease or hint that this was coming, which really makes you wonder about whoever is trying to decide on their communications strategy.