Not with a bang, but a whimper

Sounds like the one-day Russia Civil War remained pretty civil and wasn't much of a war. 

In his Saturday Balloon Juice column, Adam Silverman writes War for Ukraine Day 486: Da Fuq They Doin Ova Der? Part II

...The charges against Prigozhin are cancelled. Supposedly guarantees were given regarding Wagner and its ability to continue. Prigozhin is supposedly headed to Minsk, but who knows how long that lasts if it happens at all. He’s got air bases in Libya, Latakia in Syria, Mali, and he completely controls the Central African Republic on behalf of Putin’s and Russia’s Africa strategy. And he’s got his own Ilyushins to transport his personnel, equipment, and material around. I’ve seen lots of speculation that Shoigu was to be arrested and charged as part of this deal, but that doesen’t seem to have happened.

What we actually watched was about 36 hours of a true, albeit quite limited, civil war, not a coup. A challenge was made for the rule of Russia. It was well planned, and appeared to be long planned, and Prigozhin’s forces appeared to be making progress towards Moscow. I expect that whatever it was that Putin told Lukashenko to say to Prigozhin will eventually leak out. And then we’ll have a better idea of what the carrots and sticks were that brought this to an end. The only part of this that isn’t surprising is that it ended with a negotiated settlement...

My professional take is that this is not over. ... Prigozhin and his Wagner mercenaries embarrassed the Russian military, security services, and police forces. I’ve written repeatedly that Putin will be strong and in control and look strong and in control until he is not. Over the past 36 hours or so he has not looked strong and in control.

A Ukrainian military officer who tweets under the name of @Tatarigami_UA said this on Saturday:

...Though Putin still wields undeniable power, it is evident that he has lost control over the situation, resulting in a significant crack in his perceived ability to exert authority and manage internal affairs. Additionally, Putin had to rely on the intervention of a foreign leader (Belarus) to resolve the internal conflict.

These events highlight the potential use of military force against Putin's government as a means to coerce acceptance of terms, although the details of the arrangement between Prigozhin and Putin-Lukashenko remain undisclosed. If a replacement occurs within the top military command, it would only reinforce such behavior.

Furthermore, this upheaval exposes the inherent weakness within the system itself. Numerous senior officers responsible for decision-making chose to abstain from issuing orders or making decisive moves, opting to wait for the outcome.

At The Atlantic, Tom Nichols writes The Coup Is Over But Putin Is In Truoble

...Prigozhin and his men came within 125 miles of the capital—that is, closer to Moscow than Philadelphia is to Washington, D.C. He then said that a deal had been struck and that Wagner’s forces were turning around to avoid bloodshed. Apparently, however, the blood Prigozhin saved from being shed was his own.

...Prigozhin drew blood and then walked away from a man who never, ever lets such a personal offense go unavenged. Putin, however, may have had no choice, which is yet another sign of his precarious situation....

two things appear certain. First, Putin has suffered a huge political blow, and he has survived by making deals both with Prigozhin and with his own colleagues in the Kremlin that are, by any definition, a humiliation. And second, Yevgeny Prigozhin has changed the Russian political environment surrounding Putin’s war in Ukraine.

The problem with generating an army of amoral criminal mercenaries is you end up with an army of amoral criminal mercenaries.

— David W Grebstad 🇺🇦 (@DavidGrebstad) June 23, 2023

And this is worth remembering:

Apropos of nothing, the 1991 coup attempt against Gorbachev lasted only 3 days and the people who perpetrated it were sidelined for good, but Gorbachev never recovered politically, alternative elites started planning/negotiating behind his back, and he was out of power 4mo later.

— Maria Popova (@PopovaProf) June 24, 2023