Thursday, August 20, 2026

Just waiting for the other shoe to drop




While everyone waiting and wondering what kind of deal Canada will be making with Trump, here's some speculation, some cartoons, and some other news.

Waiting for The Deal
Here are some comments about the deal when we don't know what it is yet


Dear PM Carney and M. Leblanc: Make whatever short-term concessions Canada requires to protect our workers and industries while we look to move to non-U.S. markets and solutions. We know any deal Trump makes with Canada this weekend isn’t worth the price of the Sharpie he signs it with. Sincerely, -Maritimer

- A Letter from a Maritimer

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Maybe provinces will let American alcohol back on their shelves. Who will buy it? I don't know.
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At his Citizenship Matters substack, Ken Chapman writes Canadians Are Contemplating Trump’s Tariffs We are stiffening our resolve to not be bullied and to move on.
... Prudence and serious political leadership (a.k.a. Carney) are awaiting the final text, agreed to in writing and then affirmed by both sides. Next is the signing of any deal. That may be done by the end of the day Friday, or not. Canadians can expect Trump to put some last-minute flies in the ointment to try an lev erage more out of Canada. Carney will not be indifferent to such tactics, but he will undoubtedly ignore them.
What are Canadoians thinking and feeling about the state of play on Trump’s 50% tariff terrorism tantrum? The Abacus poll [released Monday] suggests we are highly engaged and very aware of the issues and implications of the negotiations. There are 91% of us who have at least “seen, heard or read something about them.” 70% of us believe the 50% tariff proposal would damage local economies. That’s not so true in Alberta and Saskatchewan, where only softwood lumber would be impacted. That is a small portion of each province’s exports. It would be devastating to those towns in the boreal forest where forestry industries are the mainstay of local economies. About 29% say the new tariffs would be devastating or do severe damage.
This is not some forward-loaded implication either. 74% of households have already felt immediate impacts, and 30% say the impacts have already been “major.” This is true in all regions and age groups all across Canada. Even so, we are very firm against easing restrictions on American dairy and booze....

Evan Scrimshaw writes Carney’s Deal A (Tentative) Home Run A Seeming Success (So Far)
...Trump’s not playing 4D chess, he’s playing checkers badly.
There are respected members of the Canadian commentariat who are acting like idiots. The plain and simple truth is that reacting to Americans’ boastfulness is not a real way to judge the deal, it’s on the specific terms that are specifically agreed in the coming hours and days. Look, there’s every chance I’m being too optimistic about how little Carney had to give up to get a very good thing - sectoral tariff relief - and if that ends up being true I’ll rip Carney to shreds tomorrow. But outside of Keystone - which is definitionally not a give because it was already policy (and also Danielle Smith would go correctly ballistic if we didn’t agree to it) - they don’t have a concrete win they can leak yet. Nothing. And that’s probably for a reason.
The other point worth making is that if you’re upset with making any concession, then it comes back to what I started this column with. In an ideal world we’d be compensated for having to deal with this asshole, but we’re not. Unfortunately, when you’re the global hegemon, you get to be assholes and we have to take it. It’s an unsatisfying experience, but it’s true. And it’s reasonable to not want to give him even the fig leaf of success. But that’s how how you run a country, as satisfying as it’d be.
Carney’s not an idiot, and the team negotiating this isn’t one either...
Here's a good point

No matter what the specifics of this new ‘deal’ turn out to be, there is a stark new reality as of last night. For 30-odd years we had free trade more or less, but for some sectors, with the United States and managed trade with much of the rest of the world. Now, we’re going to have managed trade with the US - including tariff schedules, export caps, etc. - and we’ll scramble to secure free trade with as many others as possible (and practically desirable). It won’t offset. At least not for a long time. And yes, Trump will one day be gone from our lives (thank Christ for that day when it arrives). But this new managed trade relationship is likely to be our reality for a long time - with all the attendant standard of living and national income implications.

- Scott Reid

Read on Substack

So apparently there is a deal, or at least a deal is expected this week. Good. Not because I expect that Trump will honour this deal, or any deal, or because I think Canada would collapse without one - because we would not - but because it buys us time. Contrary to what Mr. Poilievre and the bleating critics on social media would have you believe, turning around an economy as large as Canada’s, which has been overly dependent upon a single market for over 40 years, is not something that can be accomplished in a single year or even five. It is realistically going to take 10-15 years to fully develop new markets, build infrastructure and then see the positive results from that. Personally I think that Carney is on the right track with almost everything. “Building Big” is exactly what we need. Creating the conditions for home-grown businesses to be established and succeed is an important function of the government, and I believe that it will pay dividends - both literally and figuratively - for decades to come. Where I see danger is that there will be a large constituency in Canada who will be eager to quickly “declare victory” and revert to the status quo ante. That would be foolish. Even when Donald Trump is no longer in office, and even if he is replaced by a Democrat who is less hostile to us in general, that will not remove the underlying xenophobic and protectionist “America first, everyone else last” mindset from their political landscape. America may - and I hope will - return to being a free nation which respects international rules and norms. But it will never again be the leader of the free world. The American Century is over, and we must look forward to the next century rather than pining for the last one. https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/new-trump-tariffs-deadline-9.7311125

- Canadian Centrist

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And in other news

Amaze Amaze Amaze! Here's the biggest news of the day - a vaccine for cancer!

Moderna and Merck said that a personalized mRNA cancer vaccine reduced the risk of recurrence and spread of melanoma in a late-stage trial, a major success in a new field of cancer treatment that sent Moderna's shares surging as much as 160%. Michele Gershberg has more.

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— Reuters (@reuters.com) August 19, 2026 at 7:57 PM

Moderna, Merck breakthrough could usher in wave of cancer vaccines reut.rs/4x9tv5M

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— Reuters (@reuters.com) August 19, 2026 at 3:10 PM
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The news of the successful mRNA melanoma vaccine trial is incredible. I lost my beautiful best friend to melanoma on Christmas Eve 2011, when she was 29. That anyone would try to limit research on such life-saving technology infuriates me like nothing else.

— Jen , the MT liberal bird lady (@liberal-jen.bsky.social) August 19, 2026 at 2:27 PM
We have all lost people we loved to cancer.
It is amazing to hope that Randall Munroe's Lanes comic explaining cancer in 2010 following his wife's cancer treatment might not be true anymore.

The US Bond Market Sell-off I have no idea what is happening, or what it means, but apparently its TB:Too Bad, NG:Not Good


Personal heuristic: If the lead story on the NY Times website is about the bond market, things are not going well with the economy.

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— Matthew Gertz (@mattgertz.bsky.social) August 18, 2026 at 12:30 PM

US debt hits $40T. Last week, Bessent had to prop up the yen to prevent US bond sell off. This week he’s playing 3 card monte in the bond market (announced to last until 11/3/26 - interesting date). Sounds like economic D Day is happening here.

— independent56.bsky.social (@independent56.bsky.social) August 19, 2026 at 9:00 PM

Markets Today   U.S. government bond yields fell after the Treasury Department said it would ramp up bond repurchases. The 30-year bond yield fell 0.09 percentage point to 5.19%, its biggest one-day drop since October. The 10-year Treasury yield slipped to 4.65%.

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— Walter Arauz (@walterarauz.bsky.social) August 19, 2026 at 6:46 PM

Paul Krugman says Don't Panic

Whew!

- Cathie from Canada

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Wars and rumours of war
The blustering never ends

I was explaining to a skeptical friend why the Iran War was a bigger strategic blunder for the US than the Vietnam War and Trump just...tweets it.

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— Katherine Alejandra Cross (@quinnae.com) August 20, 2026 at 2:30 AM


That floating hellhole of an aircraft carrier is a metaphor for how Trump and Hegseth have handled the entire Iran War now, isn't it.




As the United States sinks into quagmire in Iran, the world worries about whether Russia, China and North Korea will take advantage of America's weakness.
This is, quite frankly, terrifying

NATO forces are holding major military ‘activities’ in the Baltic Sea near Kaliningrad, as a show of force to show Putin that NATO is prepared for an attack or invasion. So what’s going on, and why is Putin doing this? Kaliningrad is Russian territory, a small Baltic coast country of 1 million Russians sandwiched between Lithuania and Poland, both of which are EU and NATO countries. It is heavily militarised and serves as the base for Russia’s Baltic Fleet. But it has no direct territorial link with Russia, and all supplies have to go through Lithuania, an obvious choke-point. Why is Putin trying to escalate, even as he is losing the war against Ukraine? Because if Putin can escalate his war into a Russia- Nato war, he can say to the Russian people that NATO is attacking Russia, and that this was NATO’s plan all along, and that Ukraine is just a front for NATO aggression. He can then declare war, military control, and call up a million Russian conscripts to fight NATO’s ‘aggression’. So far NATO has refused to play Putin’s game-plan, and avoided military responses to Russia’s increasingly blatant attacks on NATO countries and allies, and these current exercises are more of the same - a warning that Putin can expect full resistance if/when he makes a move. I don’t think this will stop Putin, because he has run out of personal choices; Ukraine (with substantial European help) is effectively demolishing the Russian economy, making Russian-occupied territories unliveable, and making Putin’s political (and perhaps personal) life expectancy shorter by the day. I therefore expect Putin to act out of desperation, a last roll of the dice, and if he does, it will be very soon because he is unlikely to last the coming Russian winter of fuel and food shortages and battlefield losses. My own view, for what it’s worth, is that NATO now needs to show that it will not just respond proportionately to whatever Russia tries to do in the Baltic, but will respond disproportionally with overwhelming force. What would such a response look like? Ukraine has created the game plan in Crimea; destroy the entire military, energy, transit and communications infrastructure of Kaliningrad, ideally using Ukrainian drone and missile techniques, ending it’s status as Russia’s military and naval base, but without attacks in Russia’s mainland territory itself. This denies Putin’s storyline of NATO troops in Russia, and minimises the ever-present threat of Russian nuclear escalation. Whatever happens, I think this will escalate before this winter. Read this ‘Unmasking Russia’ repost below for more info. And worth watching closely for what happens next!

- Alternative Lives R Available

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Who is Natalie, what is she? When Jon Ossoff mentioned Natalie Harp in a campaign speech, MAGA went crazy and turned it into a national story and now everyone is wondering about Trump's assistant and greatest fan

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Harp's brother shared some lurid stories

Natalie Harp is basically Trump's human pacifier feeding him specially curated stories of how everyone loves him and everything is going great in America to keep him happy and less frenetic. It's no surprise that foreign leaders would use her to feed Trump what they want him to hear.

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— #VeryAsian Eric (@ektaka.bsky.social) August 19, 2026 at 11:17 PM

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Harry and Meghan are moving back to England.

Guess who's back? UK media and royalist racists are about to have an aneurysm. Prince Harry, Duke of Sussex, and Meghan Markle have returned as King Charles battles cancer, trading sunny California for the cold, grey misery of England.

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— Anonymous (@youranoncentral.bsky.social) August 19, 2026 at 9:41 PM
I think they're bringing the grandchildren to England right away because King Charles is dying. I just hope Piers Morgan will back off on the Meghan-hate.

BBC News report that Harry and Megan are to relocate back to the UK 🤓

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— Farrukh (@implausibleblog.bsky.social) August 19, 2026 at 3:41 PM
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