Just one damn thing after another

Pete's comment in my Gore post speculates on another historical accident -- the near-election of Henry Clay as President in 1844, instead of James Polk, meaning there would likely have been no Mexican American war, possibly no Civil War, etc etc.
This brings up the whole fascinating discussion of Alternative History. Someone once described history as "just one damn thing after another". Once we all get over the childish belief that god or the pope or the telephone company is actually running things and therefore everything that happens is by fate or plan, then we can realize that the specific sequence of things we call history was not inevitable at all. And then we can analyze the extent to which our history was either accidental or purposeful, for the clues it may provide as to how our future can be directed.
For example, it could be argued that Churchill being PM of Britain during WWII was a happy accident of history, resulting from the resignation of King Edward VIII in 1936, who, if he had been king in 1939, might well have been stubborn enough to pick Lord Halifax to form a government instead of Churchill (even King George wanted Halifax but was willing to be disuaded by Chamberlain).
Then again, however, an argument for purposeful direction could also be made, that because Churchill continued to serve in the House of Commons throughout the 20s and 30s, when lesser men might well have quit politics after such a disasterous term as First Lord of the Admiralty during WWI, so therefore Churchill put himself in the right place at the right time to become PM when England needed him most.
When historians look at the first quarter of the 21st Century, I wonder what will be considered an accident, and what might turn out to be purposeful direction.
The main theme, I think, will be the analysis of the decline and fall of the United States as the world's economic and political leader. Whether this will be ascribed to the disasterous outcome of the historical accident of 911 or to the disasterous outcome of the lurking neocons who waiting to seize on such an opportunity to start unwinnable wars will depend, I suppose, on whether it is the Chinese or the Europeans who will be writing this story. History, of course, is always written by the winners.

The best President they never had

Robert Stanfield was often described as the best prime minister Canada never had.
Well, I think its fairly clear that the United States also has a near-miss best president. There have been lots of losing presidential candidates in the US over the last 50 years, from Hubert Humphery to Bob Dole. But the one that stands head and shoulders above the rest, the one they missed by a single vote, was Al Gore.
His recent speech, An American Heresy, just demonstrates again how much they missed. Gore has a rare political ability to frame issues in a way the media and the public accept without even recognizing who is doing them this service -- the politics of fear speech, the global warming speech, the ideological Bushspeech. Now, he is doing it again with the heresy speech:

. . . if the justices who formed the majority in Bush v. Gore had not only all been nominated to the Court by a Republican president, but had also been confirmed by only Republican Senators in party-line votes, America would not have accepted that court's decision. Moreover, if the confirmation of those justices in the majority had been forced through by running roughshod over 200 years of Senate precedents and engineered by a crass partisan decision on a narrow party line vote to break the Senate's rules of procedure—then no speech imaginable could have calmed the passions aroused in our country. As Aristotle once said of virtue, respect for the rule of law is "one thing." It is indivisible. And so long as it remains indivisible, so will our country. But if either major political party is ever so beguiled by a lust for power that it abandons this unifying principle, then the fabric of our democracy will be torn. The survival of freedom depends upon the rule of law. The rule of law depends, in turn, upon the respect each generation of Americans has for the integrity with which our laws are written, interpreted and enforced.

Yes, Al, that's exactly what is at stake.

Great moments in Canadian blogging

RossK points us to this great post on a blog I had not read before called Inside the Hotdog Factory CEO stands for Cheat Every One. Hotdog's Matt St. Amand writes: "My question is -- when C.E.O.s have finally succeeded in laying off the entire North American economy, forcing everyone to become a McJob holding Wal-Mart wage slave, who the fuck will be able to afford your products? Are former Ford employees going to buy Fords? Are Hewlett-Packard employees who have been screwed around by HP going to buy HP products? Are people with no jobs, or poverty-level waged jobs, going to be able to afford anything? Maybe when that time comes, the corporations will begin importing consumers. C.E.O.s -- may you pierce a testicle sitting on your golden billfolds."
And when you have finished this one, click back to Ross to read "When Wingnuttery Knocks" about the Minutemen who are going to be protecting Amerca's northern border from the poutine-crazed Canadians. Ross says "bring 'em on! . . .we could take care of these Minutemaid Men in about, well, 15 minutes, by massing our own homegrown, hockey stick-assisted V-group within spitting distance of the line on our side of the border in southern Manitoba. We could call it 'The McSorely Project', fronted by the man himself, with chief lieutenants Dave Semenko and Todd Bertuzzi. Of course, the head of the propaganda unit will be a guy Bill O'Reilly will go absolutely bonkers over, Dave 'Flapping Gums' Williams."

If it limps like a duck . . .

"Bush didn't become a nobody overnight last night. But he did become a smaller, less imposing figure, with a weaker grasp on the nation's political agenda."
LiberalOasis sums up the Bush press conference last night.
I didn't watch it, because I just cannot stand the smug drawl he uses to state the bleedin' obvious -- like, Listen up, yu-all jest can't expect the sky to turn red right away, because its blue (heh-heh) but Ah beleeve red is on th' march.
(I don't know how Jimbobby does it -- I just can't write with a drawl!)
But apparently he didn't say much of anything except he has to kill social secutiry to save it, and isn't it too bad that gas prices are high. I did hear some admiring commentator talking about how courageous he was to admit that he couldn't do anything about that and really, its all Clinton's fault.
Funny, I don't think the public will be too impressed.

Ah ha!

Just as I suspected: Poll puts Liberals in front: Martin's wait-for-Gomery campaign appears to strike a chord with voters
The story says the liberals are coming back because people support Martin's idea of a January election. Well, yes.
But I also think the pollsters are underrating the positive impact of the Liberal/NDP alliance (which, between them, got 52 per cent of the vote last year), and the anger at Harpers 'deal with the devil' insult. Far down in the story comes this sentence "Liberal supporters are twice as likely to switch to the NDP as to the Conservatives, the poll found."
If Harper lets loose with a few more religious-toned insults to both the NDP and the Liberals, he won't pick up anybody this time around.

Missing the chance

Anglican bishops call moratorium on same-sex blessings
This is sad news -- the Canadian Anglican bishops have missed an opportunity for leadership.
And of course, while slapping gay people in the face, they also include the meaningless pat on the back -- the article ends with a sentence about how the bishops "affirmed the place of gays and lesbians in the church, offering thanks for their contribution to its life and witness."
Oh really -- how Christian of them.
The bishops have made it very clear that the place of gays in the Anglican church is out in the hallway, where they are welcome to put a few dollars into the collection plate but cannot actually come into the santuary and sit with all the "real" Anglicans.

What the people think

Voices: PM's deal with the NDP
Here's the Toronto Star article quoting letters about the Liberal/NDP deal -- and Harper had better watch his mouth and quell the rhetoric, because the public is not amused:
"Only last week Stephen Harper was complaining that the minority government was behaving like it was a majority. Now that they are behaving like a minority - taking the policies of the other parties on board, Harper complains its a disgrace and a "deal with the devil". He can't have it both ways, and to call the NDP the Devil is simply inappropriate behaviour for any politician who thinks he's Prime Minister material. "
"Stephan Harper threatens to bring down the government over their deal with the NDP. The arrogance of the man is breathtaking."
". . . if the Conservatives think that a very large proportion of the Canadian voting public are devils, then it sounds like they're the ones with the problem.
"I didn't realize the "devil" was the working class, students, and the environment. "
"This deal is political genius on behalf of Layton and Martin. When Harper pulls the plug, he will effectively begin the campaign as the champion of corporate tax breaks."
"I voted NDP . . . Why would I . . . find it a bad thing for Layton to gain a little ground?"
and finally, this one:
"Having spent the past four months in the USA, I would elect the devil incarnate before I would risk letting a group of religious extremists, market economy fanatics, gun nuts, and warmongers take over in Ottawa."

I read the news today oh boy

Here's a batch of recent "news" stories from Iraq which I simply do not believe:
Iraq Leader Says Cabinet Is Ready After Long Delay - well, almost, maybe. Juan Cole said that if the interim government in Iraq actually gives up power to an elected government, then democracy will have happened in Iraq in spite of all the problems. Well, it hasn't happened yet.
UPDATE -- it just did -- hooray!
Politics threaten end of road for Iraq's shock troops - oh, sure, they're going to send 12,000 Iraqi troops home because they aren't Shiites. Yeah, and they'll go quietly, too, I'm sure
Official: Zarqawi Eluded U.S. in Feb. Raid -- about every six months, there's another news story about how they almost got him this time.
Myers: Insurgency same as year ago - what, but I thought things were so much better? Actually, of course, it is worse -- the resistance is now mounting substantial attacks directly on American bases.
Pentagon: Soldiers not at fault in Italian's death - the Italians won't forgive and forget this one.
Top Army Officers Are Cleared in Abuse Cases -- and in relation to this last one, Phil Carter writes in Intel Dump:

Based on the evidence contained in the Taguba report, Schlesinger report, Fay-Jones report, and the Church report, as well as the volume of documents obtained by the ACLU's FOIA litigation, I believe there to be sufficient evidence . . .that these senior officers committed criminal failures of leadership. One of the worst scandals in American military history happened on their watch, under their direction, at least partly due to conditions under their control and yet, the highest-ranking individual to see prosecution so far for these abuses is a Staff Sergeant. . . . In wartime, the military must send a better message to the troops, that it will hold their leaders accountable for everything their units do or fail to do.

Thanks to Today in Iraq for most of these links.

Donald, where's your troosers?

In Michelle Malkin is making sense, the Poorman raises the veil on a risky immigration problem for America, one that could affect the very future of both Canada and the United States. No more skirting the issue -- the root of the problem is not those hairy-chested Mexicans, says Poorman. No, its much more low-down than that -- "I could write whole treatises on how these degenerate potato-people are working ceaselessly to take over America, under the upturned noses of our open borders capitulationist and stability fetishist elites"
And here's their hidden "agenda", revealed at last:

Let the wind blow high and the wind blow low
Through the streets in my kilt I go
All the lassies cry, "Hello!
Donald, where's your troosers?"

Well, personally, I'll be in no position to care

Cemetery to Begin Vertical Burials: "Some people will think it's great but other people might prefer a traditional burial."

Hey, Frogsdong --

Have you seen this?Exploding toads in a Hamburg pond baffle scientists
Well, all I can conclude is that maybe NOW we know what happened to the Weapons of Mass Destruction.

52% to 42%

Harper vows to topple Liberals: This story quotes Harper as saying "I will be asking our caucus to put this government out of its misery at the earliest possible opportunity" and it says Harper "reserved an especially aggressive attack for Layton's willingness to prop up the government in exchange for a revised budget that would divert billions of dollars in tax cuts into social programs such as child care and the environment. The NDP, he suggested, had prostituted its values . . ." In desribing the budget deal, Harper is quoted as saying "What the Liberals don't steal, the NDP gets to spend."
I think Harper needs to remember one thing before he lets rip with any more heated hyperbole -- less than a year ago, the Liberals and the NDP between them got 52 per cent of the Canadian vote, while the Conservatives and the Bloc together got 42 per cent.

That's the way a minority government governs

The Globe and Mail: Harper blasts NDP-Liberal deal
The Globe is editorializing its outrage because Martin gave up the corporate tax cuts to sign the budget deal with Layton.
What part of "minority government" doesn't the Globe understand?
Boys, those tax cuts were toast anyway -- and this was Harper's choice, not Martins. Since Martin could no longer count on Harper to pass the budget, he had to turn to Layton.
At least Martin saved the rest of it -- the extra money for cities and the military. And I like the changes that Layton made. At least our freeway overpass construction won't have to come to a grinding halt because the budget didn't get approved.
And now Martin has said these corporate tax cuts will be coming to the Commons anyway, in a separate bill -- which Harper can vote against, if he wants. So if he wants to defeat the government, he'll still have his chance.
Now Harper says he's "flabbergasted". In his eagerness to rush to the polls, he fails to comprehend is that a majority of Canadians WANT THE BUDGET TO PASS and DO NOT WANT AN ELECTION NOW.
So Martin is just trying to do what Canadians want.
You didn't think Martin was this tricky, did you?

What do they think they have to prove?

How stupid is the Bush administration? Having nominated a yahoo like John Bolton to the UN, now Bush and Cheney are allowing his confirmation to turn into a do-or-die moment for their whole administration -- Senate Panel Is Widening Its Review on Nominee to U.N.
Has anyone else noticed that the Bush administration and the UN are like the Sherrif of Nottingham in a swordfight with Robin Hood? The US says 'Touche, you bandit -- I've got you on the run now!' and the UN replies 'You spoke too soon, Sherrif. Watch me turn the tables on you!'
The Bush administration seems to keep thinking it has the UN on the ropes, when actually it is US influence which is weakening around the world. The US thought the Security Council would be broken when it went to war against Iraq without a second resolution, and then later they had to get a resolution before they could export Iraq's oil. They thought they could get rid of ElBaradei at the IAEA, and Kofi Annan over the oil-for-food investigation, but the rest of the world didn't get behind them. The next battle will be over the continued refusal of the Security Council to pass a resolution sanctioning Iran's nuclear ambitions, because the Council doesn't want to give the US another excuse to start a war. Yes, I'm sure that John Bolton will be able to convince them!

Torture is on the march

Human Rights Watch has released a new summary about how the Bush Administration is torturing people not just in Iraq and Guantanamo, but around the globeU.S.: Abu Ghraib Only the "Tip of the Iceberg"
In fact, one could say that torture is on the march. This is the legacy that the world will remember about the Bush administration.