Bush tries The Martingale

There's a betting system called The Martingale that if you lose, you wager double the next time and the next time and the next time, until eventually you win and so get all your losses back.
Sounds like a plan -- after all, you're bound to win eventually, aren't you?
It is the Gambler's Fallacy to think that you're ever due to win any time, no matter how many in a row you 've lost - cards have no memory and neither does the roulette wheel. After doubling your bet a few times, you are risking a huge amount of money against a miniscule benefit -- even if you do win, all you have is your first investment back.
But the Bush administration appears bound and determined to try a Martingale in the Middle East -- either by escalating the war in Iraq, or widening it to Iran, or both.
They're playing Viva Las Vegas with real people's lives. The Martingale doesn't turn losers into winners, it only makes bigger losers.

Great line of the day

From Attytood via Today in Iraq:

. . . it all gets intellectually tangled when you try to compare a one-day terrorist attack, which deliberately targeted civilians in a way that any civilized human should find repulsive, with three and a half years of combat and collateral damage.
Tangled -- and yet I do believe in my gut that the killing fields in Iraq flow directly from the senseless violence of 9/11, and so I believe that stories and blog posts that compare the death tolls are worthwhile -- because for one day they make us think, a little harder and a little more out loud than usual, what Americans should be thinking every single day.
Just what in God's name are we doing over there?

Emphasis mine.

Stick with Canada

Reading about war on today of all days, one thought occured to me -- America should stay out of any war that Canada doesn't want to fight.
Look at the record-
WWI, WWII, Korea, Gulf War, Kosovo: Canada supported, and the allies, including America, won.
Vietnam, Iraq: Canada did not support, and America lost
Afghanistan: Still a toss-up.
But if Canada pulls out, it's likely safe to assume that America will lose that one, too.

John Williams conducts Handel's Messiah

A number of years ago I participated in a "sing-along" Messiah -- great fun and a great Christmas experience.

Claymation "We three kings"

Claymation "Angels we have heard on high"

Claymation "Carol of the Bells"

David Bowie and Bing Crosby

singing together in one of the most unique Christmas specials ever made.

Great line of the day

Speaking for everyone who has ever had to work with the public, hairy fish nuts says:

I love all my clients and not just because they pay me but because they're human and that means one day they'll die.

And ya just gotta love anonomyous blogging, too.

Rhetorical bullets

Our Steven, another Profile in Courage:

Harper told a Calgary-based radio program that the United Nations and the entire international community want Canadian troops in the war-torn country. And he said the soldiers still believe in the mission. "If they're willing to take the real bullets, we can take the rhetorical bullets back here at home," Harper said.

Meanwhile, Canada's own General Hillier is firing a few of those rhetorical bullets himself, making statements about how he is apparently shivering at the prospect of another federal election. God forbid, I guess, that the Canadian people might vote this time based on their feelings about our Afghanistan adventure.

I read the news today, oh boy

What a balls-up this turned into. The player was kicked off the hockey team for not signing a Canadian flag, but now he says he never intended not to sign it. Now the coach has been suspended for kicking the player off the team and for making rude remarks about him. But the league commissioner now says the player was suspended for his poor performance on ice -- apparently he's not actually the team's top scorer, he's only tied for that title. It all makes perfect sense, doesn't it. But here's the kicker:

The Sea Dogs are last place in the east division.

And no wonder.

And another front has opened in the War on Christmas, this time in Ontario's courts. Of course Justice Cohen shouldn't have made such a dumb ruling, but everyone else needs to just chill out -- remember "peace on earth and goodwill to men"?

Why does Bush act like it was someone else's idea to send 20,000 or 30,000 or 40,000 more troops to Iraq? Now he's reassuring everyone that of course he couldn't possibly do it "unless they have a specific mission".
I don't think "win the war" is specific enough, George.

Apropos, The Onion reports "Thousands More Dead in Continuing Iraq Victory".

BAG News Notes has an interesting take on how Hezbollah is spinning its image in Lebanon. This is a website I don't read often enough -- it analyzes the sub-text behind news photos, demonstrating how they are easily worth a thousand words.

Loyalty to a culture

For the story behind these treasures and the personal courage which saved them -- a true story more fascinating than any Indiana Jones movie ever made -- read Galloping Beaver's The Keyholders of Afghanistan and follow the links at the end.

Ask the farmers what they want

Imagine, after 32 years, being fired by a man who won't even talk to you.
That's what happened to Wheat Board president Adrian Measner:

Measner said [Agriculture minister Chuck] Strahl never spoke with him directly about his firing. "It isn't a very professional way to operate, but it is the method of operation that the minister has chosen," he said from his home near Winnipeg.

Now we'll see whether Strahl, who has never been a farmer, is also afraid to seek farmer opinion about ending the Wheat Board marketing monopoly. Will he hold a plebicite -- or if he is so ideologically driven that he doesn't care what the grain farmers want?
Here's another surprising quote from this story:

Carl Siemens, who grows grains and oilseeds near Rush Lake, Sask., said Tuesday's announcement could cost the Conservatives votes in the next election. "Although a goodly number of (farmers) actually voted for the Conservative government in the last federal election, they did so with no knowledge that this government was going to move in this fashion to remove the Canadian Wheat Board," he said.

Have they been living in caves? Why would any farmer not know already that the Conservatives wanted to dump the Wheat Board? They're been talking about it for years.
Of course, maybe they just assumed that the Conservatives wouldn't dare do such a thing without a producer vote.

Yeah, right!

Bushistas are saying that Bush can copy the success of Vietnam with 40,000 extra troops.
Sorry about the mess on your computer -- I should have waited for you to swallow before I told you that.

Great line of the day

Suburban Guerrilla:

Does anything say Christmas quite like giant inflatable snow globes?