The future of Iraq? Here's what Juan Cole thinks

Juan Cole draws a scenario for Iraq -- oil at $500 a barrel, Iraq split in three, the Kurds at war with Turkey and Iran, the Shiites and AlQuaeda at war on several borders and with Israel, and major conflicts at the Straits of Hormuz and in Saudi Arabia.
In the Comments to his post, Cole says "It is exaggerated for effect, and intended to show the worst-case end point of current policies."

Save this and lets see what happens.
What concerns me now is this -- what could STOP this scenario from happening? The United Nations? The Arab League?