Thursday, January 30, 2025

Turn-around? The Liberals are rebounding

 
Yes, I know, I know, the Foreign Interference Commission report is more important than a polling bump - and if you want some good reporting on that report, see Dale Smith and Wesley Wark and Scrimshaw. And the tariff questions. And the Ontario election.  All way more important.
But I just had to share about this polling - it's so delicious.  
Because the Liberals are turning it around:

Major and Straight-Line Decline in Conservative Advantage over Past Month 
Rising national anxiety lifting Liberal fortunes? 
...The lead initially started narrowing after Justin Trudeau announced his retirement. The acceleration of this trend became clear in our polling about two weeks ago. It was contemporaneous with the entry of Mark Carney to the race which appears to be a factor. It was also reinforced by the dramatic announcements of potential 25 per cent tariffs from newly inaugurated Trump and repeated discussion of annexation of Canada. This seems to have captured the attention of Canadians, particularly the more recent recruits to the Conservative fold. Since then, that trend has continued and, in a roll-up of the past six days (since our last report), this gap has narrowed further to a remarkably thin three points. 
This dramatic and perhaps unprecedented movement has been focussed among women (where the Liberals now lead handily), the university-educated, and self-defined middle-class voters. Perhaps more importantly, the Liberals have erased a 20-point gap in Ontario and now have a slight lead. They are also much more competitive in Quebec, they lead in the Atlantic, and they are faring much better in British Columbia. In short, the race has morphed from a pro forma Conservative coronation to a highly unpredictable horse race....

4 comments:

Cap said...

While I enjoy a PP setback as much as you do, I'm mindful of all those polls showing Harris leading Trump only to have the Dems concede after the election that their internal polling never showed Harris or Biden leading. One swallow doesn't make a summer.

Purple library guy said...

As Churchy la Femme said in Pogo, depends what you swallow.

Cathie from Canada said...

Good one, PLG!
And yes, Cap, I know it might not last -- but its delightful anyway, for as long as it lasts.
Actually, I wouldn't expect to see Poilievre rebound against Carney, but I suppose its possible if they dig up some dirt or something.

lungta said...

"One swallow doesn't make ..........a summer"
Really didn't see it going that way. May my scepticism and realism be rewarded again. Electorally with the demise of tiny ax da tax.