I think Canada needs to understand that the CUSMA negotiations are likely doomed.
Trump no longer has the mental capacity to handle "the art of the deal" - as Iran and the rest of the world are now finding out. And Trump will always blame his victims, as his erratic meltdowns tank any agreements or understandings that anyone might have thought he might agree to.
So I think we're stuck with the existing CUSMA agreement, plus those additional tariffs not turfed by SCOTUS (35% on steel and aluminum, 25% on autos and furniture, plus 10% more on energy/potash, lumber and steel.)
As I said in a comment on my previous post, I fully expect Trump will announce he is "ending" CUSMA, even though it will actually stay in effect until 2036.
So I think we're stuck with the existing CUSMA agreement, plus those additional tariffs not turfed by SCOTUS (35% on steel and aluminum, 25% on autos and furniture, plus 10% more on energy/potash, lumber and steel.)
As I said in a comment on my previous post, I fully expect Trump will announce he is "ending" CUSMA, even though it will actually stay in effect until 2036.
But such an announcement will threaten to destabilize long-term corporate investment in Canadian business, and that's going to be a problem -- I think Carney's Advisory Committee is actually intended to help the government maintain investor confidence in Canada.
On Wednesday, Radio-Canada broke a major story about the upcoming CUSMA negotiations. Reporters Laurence Martin, Fannie Olivier and Daniel Thibeault reported that the US wants an "entry fee" bribe to start talks:
Now, we all understand that just ain't gonna happen.
And the more the United States tries to throw their weight around, the further away from reality they get: Canada's decision to take American liquor and wine off its shelves seems to drive them completely mad:
In a lengthy post on Between The Lines Canada, journalist Leni Spooner analyzes Canada's trade positions and opportunities, including this comparison of 2026 to 2017, when CUSMA was written:
On a side note, the CPC is still frothing about the floor-crossings:
This Hike for Hope initiative looks positive:
..."[U.S. President Donald] Trump wants us to make a lot of concessions before we sit down at the table," Charest told Radio-Canada. "Meanwhile, he wouldn’t make any."But nine months ago was way back in 2025 -- in the good old days when Trump was talking all the time about all the trade deals he wanted to make, and when the world still believed that maybe Trump could "be reasonable".
On the U.S. side, there are suggestions that Canada should try to get Trump’s attention by making an immediate concession, especially since the president is juggling several major issues right now.
However, Canadian sources said they have twice offered concessions to the U.S. administration without receiving anything in return.
...Last spring, Ottawa dropped a significant portion of the reciprocal counter-tariffs it had put forward as a retaliatory measure against the tariffs on steel and aluminum imposed by Washington.
At the end of June, Canada also scrapped the digital services tax, which would have imposed a three per cent levy on the Canadian revenues of digital giants such as Amazon, Apple and Meta.
"The repeal of the digital services tax will significantly advance negotiations on a new economic and security partnership with the United States," Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne said at the time.
More than nine months later however, negotiations do not appear to have made any progress...
Now, we all understand that just ain't gonna happen.
And the more the United States tries to throw their weight around, the further away from reality they get: Canada's decision to take American liquor and wine off its shelves seems to drive them completely mad:
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In a lengthy post on Between The Lines Canada, journalist Leni Spooner analyzes Canada's trade positions and opportunities, including this comparison of 2026 to 2017, when CUSMA was written:
...-The stakes of failure are clearer. In 2017, the risk was a new deal with bad terms. In 2026, the risk is that talks stall entirely and CUSMA drifts into a decade of annual reviews, creating persistent uncertainty for every business and supply chain that crosses the Canada-U.S. border. The Bank of Canada has flagged this as a base-case risk to the economic outlook.I get the feeling that Carney has decided he will no longer suffer fools:
-The U.S. appears to want the review to be ongoing, not concluded. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has signalled the U.S. may prefer annual reviews over a clean 16-year extension, which would keep Canada under continuous pressure. This is a different strategic posture than 2017, when the U.S. ultimately wanted a concluded deal it could claim as a win.
-Canada has fewer goodwill gestures left to give. Ottawa has already repealed the digital services tax and rolled back retaliatory tariffs. The cupboard of easy concessions is not empty, but it is considerably barer than it was when negotiations began. Each remaining concession carries more political and economic weight.
-The political context on both sides is compressed, but in meaningfully different ways. Canada is a year into a government that has since achieved a slim majority through by-elections and floor crossings, giving the Carney government a mandate that now runs to 2029 without the threat of a confidence vote cutting it short. That political stability is not nothing at a negotiating table: Ottawa can afford to be patient in a way a minority government could not. The United States, by contrast, faces midterm elections in late 2026. Ottawa’s strategy of “playing for time” may be partly calibrated to those midterm pressures, hoping that U.S. congressional nervousness about trade disruption eventually creates pressure on the White House to conclude a deal, as it did in 2018 and 2019....
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On a side note, the CPC is still frothing about the floor-crossings:
I can hardly wait until we get the CPC reaction to MacKinnon's motion for Liberal majorities on Commons committees - no more click bait hearings and grandstanding delays:View on Threads
Canada Good News - a few stories I found about good things happening:Government House Leader Steven MacKinnon announces motion to take control of committees
— Jeff's Fact Checker (@thunderbayed.bsky.social) April 22, 2026 at 7:07 PM
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Good stuff for Canada. An example of the how the world is slowly but surely pivoting away from the USA. ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/canada-...
— Phil (@try-logic.bsky.social) April 20, 2026 at 7:41 AM
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This Earth Day, we’re highlighting how biodiversity genomics is deepening our understanding of life in Canada. 🇨🇦🧬 Powered by CGEn’s sequencing centres in Vancouver, Toronto, and Montréal, this work is accelerating discovery and strengthening Canada’s role in global genome science. #EarthDay2026
— Canadian BioGenome Project 🇨🇦 (@canadianbiogenome.bsky.social) April 22, 2026 at 11:09 AM
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This Hike for Hope initiative looks positive:
We can't keep this secret any longer. The first-ever Jane Goodall Hike for Hope takes place across Canada this October 3rd and 4th, and you can sign up now at HikeForHope.ca. Watch this video from Dr. Jane – the last message she recorded for Canadians — to learn more about the #HikeForHope.
— Jane Goodall Institute of Canada (@janegoodallcan.bsky.social) April 22, 2026 at 6:46 AM
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With this new national campaign, we're inviting people to connect with the natural world and raise funds to support the work that Dr. Jane long championed. Everyone is encouraged to participate – you are invited to hike wherever you feel most comfortable.
— Jane Goodall Institute of Canada (@janegoodallcan.bsky.social) April 22, 2026 at 7:05 AM
Take your first step today and sign up now at HikeForHope.ca. Let's walk in Dr. Jane's footsteps – and keep her work moving forward – together. And to our inaugural Hike for Hope sponsors – G Adventures, GoodLife Fitness, Sinking Ship Entertainment, and VIA Rail Canada – thank you!
— Jane Goodall Institute of Canada (@janegoodallcan.bsky.social) April 22, 2026 at 7:05 AM
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