Friday, April 24, 2026

Today's News: Watching the Dunning-Kruger Effect in real time. Plus an Epstein-gate Update

The Dunning-Kruger effect is when incompetent people do not have enough knowledge to know that they are incompetent, nor do they recognize competency in others. They don’t know what they don’t know.
Right now, we're seeing the Dunning-Kruger Effect in real time.
Now basically, it usually doesn't matter what someone like this believes.
But because they can talk a good game, and aren't tethered to inconvenient realities, people like this can get themselves elected to public office.
And then, its a problem for all of us.
Here is Poilievre taking a leaf from Trump's book and just blatantly lying about how he can easily give Canadians what we want - a good deal with the US and no tarrifs on anything:

“Poilievre claims he can get a trade deal with the US with no tariffs” One had to wonder just what kind of hallucinogens he’s been taking.

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— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) April 23, 2026 at 10:32 AM
Yeah, sure, PP -- its the Dunning-Kruger Effect.
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And here is Poilievre blithely big-footing his way into the a complex decade-long Langley BC property issue dispute that will likely end up in the supreme court:

This is weird in the way Poilievre is essentially giving one of his MPs a public mandate letter, but it's also full of misinformation and is part of his ongoing dangerous attempt to escalate a confrontation with First Nations in BC.

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— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) April 23, 2026 at 10:58 AM
This is the very definition of "risable":
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Even the CBC At Issue panel on Thursday found itself just parroting Poilievre's easy solutions:

TL,DW (too long, didn't watch): I must say I wasn't impressed this week. They chatted about the CUMSA trade negotiations, Carney's video, and the move to increase Liberal members on parliamentary committees, and in all cases they really just echoed Poilievre talking points - why doesn't Carney start negotiations right away? why does Carney do videos when he could do press interviews? and maybe the Liberals don't really deserve to have more members on committees? Basically, like reporters everywhere, they just want Carney to call another election so they have something to talk about - I guess because waiting until 2029 would be really boring for them.
The CBC Power and Politics Reporter Roundup, also on Thursday, gave us a better discussion, I thought:

TL,DW (too long, didn't watch): Joel-Denis Bellavance from LaPresse, Mia Robson from CP and Bob Fife from the Globe and Mail had a wide-ranging discussion with David Cochrane about the pros and cons of negotiating with Trump, with additional information about the Washington politics around Lutnik and Wilkinson. Cochrane's best line "I need to stop being shocked by Americans being shocked by the consequences of their actions." Their advice to Carney was that he needs to show Canadians he is doing more for Canada than just negotiating with Trump, while the Americans need to stop trying to play us. And it was in this discussion that Bob Fife said Poilievre couldn't even manage his caucus.
So now it's time for a reality check:
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In his Fly Straight substack, journalist John Ivison summarizes Poilievre's problems:
...Since the Liberals gained their majority, Poilievre appears to have abandoned his efforts to reframe himself as a conventional consensus politician looking to work with the government during a time of national crisis, which seemed to be his gameplan for about five minutes.
Insiders credit the calming influence of communications director, Katy Merrifield, for instilling a degree of common sense into the Conservative operation. But she has resigned and Poilievre has reverted to his default setting.
We are back to polarizing rhetoric, leveraging anti-establishment sentiment and…attacking democratic checks and balances like the judiciary and the media.
Poilievre is the leader of the opposition - of course he should be pointing out to Canadians the impact of inflation, soaring deficits and the absence of any progress on major projects. “Illusions are not reality,” is a good line.
But the leader appears as bitter as Scheer; that the prize that was once within their grasp has been snatched away unfairly, perhaps forever.
...“They keep leaning into crazy. It’s the most bizarre thing I have ever seen. And I’ve seen a lot,” said one prominent Conservative MP. “I don’t think Pierre can wrap his head around the fact that Mark Carney isn’t Justin.”
The majority has given the Conservatives a year or two to sort themselves out. Carney’s agenda is ambitious and, inevitably, parts of it will fail.
The Conservative platform should write itself by the end of 2027.
But there are conspicuous signs it will be delivered by a new messenger. ...
...Large numbers of distressed Conservatives are holding out for a hero. The political equivalent of the Bat signal is projecting into the cloudy night skies of Ottawa, in the hope it will end the bat-shit craziness. It remains to be seen whether anyone answers.
Moving on to Trump, we see that the Dunning-Kruger Effect is strong. Here's the most recent example from Trump, whose Fantasyland is now crumbling everywhere:

“Mr. Trump insisted that he had helped design the new class of ships that bear his name.” 😱

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— hilzoy (@hilzoy.bsky.social) April 23, 2026 at 7:46 PM
The New York Times story reports:
...Presidents rarely pay close attention to military procurement [gift link], but Mr. Trump has spoken repeatedly about his plans for a new “Trump-class” battleship. In a February speech to soldiers at Fort Bragg, N.C., Mr. Trump insisted that he had helped design the new class of ships that bear his name.
“I put a little more spirit in the hull,” Mr. Trump told the troops. “I want that ship to look gorgeous, you know.”
...In Mr. Trump’s imagination the new warship would be massive, weighing as much as 40,000 tons, and would be packed with new high-tech weapons, like lasers, hypersonic missiles and electric rail guns, most of which are still in development and years from being deployed.
...In recent weeks, it had become clear to Mr. Phelan that the Navy and the U.S. shipbuilding industry did not have the ability to deliver on Mr. Trump’s vision....
Trump didn't want to hear this news, so he fired the messenger. Easy peasy!
The consensus is that the United States is losing the Iran War and who knows what will happen next:

I guess I appreciate a good Trump is losing it piece in a conservative rag. But you always end up with stuff like below. He's acting like he always acts, and it's a ratcheting up. But that's what he's always does. The problem is now he can't be stopped. www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/4533...

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— 🗽LOLGOP🗽 (@thefarce.org) April 21, 2026 at 7:10 PM
Historian Timothy Snyder sums it up:

Superpower suicide: Timothy Snyder, on why Trump is the dumbest, most reckless and incompetent president in history. Some of us predicted America would be destroyed from within — and while the lemmings didn't listen, the billionaires could only think of their own self-enrichment.

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— Bill Madden (@maddenifico.bsky.social) April 23, 2026 at 1:57 PM
Epstein-gate Update 
Lots of talk today about Ghislaine Maxwell getting pardoned - absolutely disgusting!

It’s not hard to understand. Maxwell is blackmailing Trump and Melania by threatening to release her discovery files. Trump has to pardon her. He’s asked republicans in congress to provide him an excuse to do so. (This is all speculation on my part. But it seems pretty obvious.)

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— Mueller, She Wrote (@muellershewrote.com) April 23, 2026 at 3:08 PM
On his substack Narativ, journalist Zev Shalev writes
...Ghislaine Maxwell has three doors out of federal prison, and all three are opening this week. Donald Trump is weighing a pardon. House Oversight Republicans are floating immunity. The Southern District of New York is holding her amended motion to vacate her conviction. Never before have the forces of injustice been marshaled with such force for such a clearly immoral outcome as Ghislaine’s freedom.
On April 17, her attorney, David Oscar Markus, told Politico there is “a good chance” Trump will pardon her. On April 23, MSNBC’s Katie Phang broke that Oversight Republicans are openly trading votes on a pardon-for-testimony deal Comer’s caucus rejected nine months ago. CNN’s Jake Tapper aired an Epstein-survivor attorney calling it “deeply offensive.” Maxwell’s amended Section 2255 motion to vacate — shipped by FedEx USB drive from her Tallahassee cell — sits on Judge Paul Engelmayer’s docket. Trump’s U.S. Attorney for SDNY, Jay Clayton, filed a letter calling it “meritless.” Fourteen pages went missing from her December original. The DOJ Inspector General also announced an audit of DOJ compliance with the Epstein Files Transparency Act. The IG reports to the Acting Attorney General. The Acting Attorney General is the man who interviewed Maxwell in her cell.
Everyone working towards freeing Ghislaine Maxwell. Absolutely no one working towards justice for the survivors...

For those attending the White House Correspondents' Dinner this weekend, a small question: When you're sitting there at your table, do you think it'll cross your mind that the guest of honor is actively covering up his role in a massive child sex trafficking operation?

- Charlotte Clymer

Read on Substack

And I thought this was interesting too

⚖️ Rep Thomas Massie (R-KY) says it’s time to question Todd Blanche about the Epstein files release @macfarlanenews.bsky.social

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— Chris⚖️Justice (@chrisjustice01.bsky.social) April 24, 2026 at 2:12 AM
Hmmm....he's a republican too.

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