Operation Big Swinging Dick

Throwing another 20,000 troops into Iraq should be called "Operation Big Swinging Dick" -- because that's whose idea it was, and that's what the idea is.
It's a typical Dick Cheney balls-up, and the purpose is really just to show the Democrats and the GOP doubters that Bush is still the boss.
If you want to understand Iraq, read Juan Cole and Today in Iraq for the details and Steve Gilliard for the big picture. Here is Gilliard's summary of what has gone wrong for the Americans in Iraq:

. . . here's a brief explaination of why the Iraq war failed.
1)Iraq is not an artificial state, but one with distinct interest groups. Saddam spent much of his time protecting himself from, and catering to them. Some people, the Talibanis, the Sadrs, were never happy, but others were. If you try to fracture Iraq, no state will be strong enough to survive.
2) Exiles sold their fantasies of being conquering heroes and instead were met with contempt from the survivors of Saddam. They were weaker compared to the prevailing forces, the Sunni shieks, B'aathists, Sadrists and Sistani. All would define what would happen in Iraq far more than any exile.
3) There were two different plans for Iraq, both doomed to fail. The first was to hand the country over to Chalabi, which would have resulted in anarchy within days, or to establish a colonial regime. Since the infighting was so intense, neither plan was fully hatched until Viceroy Bremer was sent to bring order.
4)The Bush Administration had no respect for the complications of establishing order in a colony, so they sent the young and untrained to run Iraq. Few ever saw what they were supposed to be changing. The Americans neither trusted nor respected the Iraqis they were supposed to serve. Having no training in foreign service matters, they were more hinderance than help.
5)Combat never stopped. The US was unable to ever establish order in the streets of Baghdad, which meant their word was useless. Soon, those who worked with the Americans became targets. The Iraqis had a much better sense of how to manipulate the Americans than vice versa.
6) Despite all their blather, few people realized what this war was quickly turning into. They talked about Al Qaeda and dead enders, but in less than a year, the Shia were running major attacks on them. Only Sistani's intervention prevented a full scale war on the Americans. The US was falling into the trap of fighting a colonial war, while all the warbloggers talked about Islamofascism. While they were attacking Cindy Sheehan, they forgot one thing: her son was killed by the Sadrists. Which went against the narrative we had been fed.
7) By the time the Iraqis finally had elections, what you had was all the factions, excluding the Sunnis, in parliment, and they wanted revenge. The government forces quickly fell under the spell of various militias and while we trained them, they didn't improve their effectiveness. But the Mahdi Army did. SCIRI did, the guerrillas in Anbar Province did.
While there was a great deal of rhetoric about a united Iraq, the US was playing the game of divide and conquer. Their trump move was to install Hakim's puppet over Maliki. Until Sistani said no, and left the power in the hands of Sadr. The exact opposite of their plans.
It wasn't bungled execution.
No Iraqi government not controlled by the Sadrists could have survived. Because they are the majority. They had no interest in sharing anything or a democratic government. Because this is a colonial war, and no structure set up by the US would have had any credibility.

So 20,000 troops aren't going to make any difference at all. Apparently the Iraqi government is saying it will bring in Kurdish pesh merga units to disarm the militias - oh, sure -- while the Americans troops fight the Sunnis. Gilliard describes what is actually going to happen next:

. . . someone better realize that the Saddam execution and the Sistani quashing of the coup means the last man standing is the guy with the funny teeth and black turban.
Bush is so clueless and desperate that he doesn't realize he's being coopted into assisting ethnic cleansing. At the end of this, Sadr will be in near total control of most of Iraq's population.
Petraeus should know better. While US troops are getting killed killing Sunnis, Sadr will increase his control over the military and police. He thinks they're going to disarm the Mahdi Army? Hell no. The Mahdi Army are the real protectors of the Shia population, they have won support on the ground by saving lives and feeding people. The government is subordinate to Sadr and his supporters, and Sistani made that happen.
Bush and his supporters live in a cloud cuckoo land where they don't understand how they have been manuvered into this mess. Americans troops are being asked to die to establish a Shia theocracy in Iraq.

War 2, the Sequel*

Dave at Galloping Beaver picks up a number of key points about the American plan for War 2, the Sequel* otherwise known as war with Iran, including this very significant piece to the puzzle:

Would Bush do it?
Do we really need to ask that?
He would if he could get away with it. The truth is, he has the authority under two umbrellas: The Authorization for the Use Of Military Force which flowed from the September 2001 attacks and the War Powers Act of 1973, which gives him 60 days to do whatever he wants. The AUMF is weak in that it specifies the power is to be used to go after the perpetrators of the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks.
That would be why Lieberman is suddenly making linkages between al Qaeda and Iran. It was the same lie that got Bush his war in Iraq.

Emphasis mine.
* And yes, I am deliberately using a movie title parody for this war, because I think it is being promoted by Cheney and Abrams and the other Washington chickenhawks as a John Wayne movie where the hero always gets the girl and the Americans always win in the end.
Apparently none of them have ever seen Dr. Strangelove.
Or Platoon.

Great line of the day

From Molly Irwins in the Chicago Tribune - Bush won't end Iraq war on his own:

The president of the United States does not have the sense God gave a duck--so it's up to us. You and me.

Attack of the Amazon Women

Wild speculation? But wouldn't it be interesting, if true. So here's my scenario:
Dick Cheney resigns and Condi Rice is appointed VP.
Then Bush is impeached and Rice becomes President.
Then, in a fit of absoultely insane bipartisanship, Rice appoints Hillary as her VP.
So there you have it -- Rice, Clinton and Pelosi in charge of the United States.
Wouldn't that be a party? Oh, well, dare to dream...

There's a man with a gun over there

There's something happening here
What it is ain't exactly clear . . .

Bush to name new general to oversee Iraq:

. . . Admiral Fallon would be the first Navy officer to serve as the senior officer of the Central Command, which is managing simultaneous ground wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Admiral Fallon is regarded within the military as one of its stronger regional combat commanders, and his possible appointment also reflects a greater emphasis on countering Iranian power, a mission that relies heavily on naval forces and combat airpower to project American influence in the Persian Gulf.

There's a man with a gun over there
Telling me I got to beware . . .

Arianna Huffington:

. . . [Wes] Clark was really angry about what he'd read in this column by UPI Editor at Large Arnaud de Borchgrave . . . de Borchgrave details Bibi Netanyahu leading the charge to lobby the Bush administration to take out Iran's nuclear facilities, and paints U.S. air strikes against Iran in 2007/08 as all-but-a-done deal.
"How can you talk about bombing a country when you won't even talk to them?" said Clark. "It's outrageous. We're the United States of America; we don't do that. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying the military option is off the table -- but diplomacy is not what Jim Baker says it is. It's not, What will it take for you boys to support us on Iraq? It's sitting down for a couple of days and talking about our families and our hopes, and building relationships."
When we asked him what made him so sure the Bush administration was headed in this direction, he replied: "You just have to read what's in the Israeli press. The Jewish community is divided but there is so much pressure being channeled from the New York money people to the office seekers." . . . For Clark, this is the biggest foreign policy issue facing the U.S. "I'm worried about the surge," he said. "But I'm worried about this even more."

I think it's time we stop, children, what's that sound
Everybody look what's going down. . .

Exclusive: Iran War 'In 2 yrs':

CIA specialist on Iran Reuel Marc Gerecht said there had been a "tidal shift" of opinion towards military action, especially in Israel.
He added: "I think it has now become highly likely the Israelis will launch a strike before the end of George Bush's presidency."
An Israeli attack before the US election in November 2008 risks sparking a military explosion in the Middle East.
It is likely to be backed up by American and possibly British air support from Iraq.

Paranoia strikes deep
Into your life it will creep
It starts when you're always afraid
You step out of line, the man come and take you away . . .

Reveaked: Israel plans nuclear strike on Iran:

Israel has drawn up secret plans to destroy Iran’s uranium enrichment facilities with tactical nuclear weapons.
Two Israeli air force squadrons are training to blow up an Iranian facility using low-yield nuclear “bunker-busters”, according to several Israeli military sources. . . Israeli and American officials have met several times to consider military action. Military analysts said the disclosure of the plans could be intended to put pressure on Tehran to halt enrichment, cajole America into action or soften up world opinion in advance of an Israeli attack . . .

Stop, children, what's that sound
Everybody look what's going down . . .

Justice shuffle

I know the big news of the day was the replacement of Rona Ambrose as Environment minister, but I actually thought the replacement of Vic Toews as Justice Minister could turn out to be pretty significant, too.
What's going to happen to all the Conservative "let's send more Canadians to jail" law proposals, like the three-strikes idea (which is, I think, both contrary to natural justice and unnecessary), not to mention "let's staff our courts with more right-wing, ideological judges" and then"'let's tie their hands with more mandatory sentences".

"Regardless of gender"

Well, that's big of them:

A White House spokesman Thursday said President Bush is ready to work with incoming House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-California.
Pelosi will be considered "an equal leader in government," White House spokesman Tony Fratto told reporters when asked how he views her.
"There are no questions of whether they sit and talk as equals," he added. "I think it's impressive that no one has any questions of whether they can work together regardless of gender."

Emphasis mine. Are we supposed to give the Bush administration a big round of applause for treating Nancy Pelosi as though she was a real leader of government -- instead of just a mere woman?
Does this fellow have any idea how patronizing he sounds? I wonder if he would be so pleased if someone gave the White House credit for hiring him "regardless of being Italian."
(h/t TGW)

I read the news today, oh boy

Buh-bye, Rona: CP reports that Ambrose is gone from Environment. And I thought this was an interesting observation in the news story:

Ambrose's allies say her fierce loyalty to Harper ultimately hurt her, as she allowed some in his office to micromanage her portfolio in areas of both policy and communications.

She forgot that her job was to "minister" to her department, not to the PMO.

Whew! I hate shootouts but at least this time we won it.

Three parents? Well, why not? Sure, there may be complications, but this court decision resolves the inequity and unfairness of the existing law and, most importantly I think, revises the law to reflect Canadian reality (rather than contorting reality to fit into an outdated law). Beyond gay parents, there are many other situations where legal recognition of family responsibility and accountability could be appropriate, like grandparents and step-parents.

MSNBC's relentless promotion of its live coverage of Congress -- as though Nancy Pelosi is going to start passing legislation tomorrow morning -- sort of reminded me of this. And the Pearl-Clutching is right on schedule.

Jesus wept, part 2

I read Today in Iraq as often as I can bear it. Here is Tuesday's list of "security incidents" -- all from a single day!

The military announced the death of a U.S. soldier by a roadside bomb southwest of Baghdad. The blast Monday wounded three others, including an interpreter, as they talked with residents about sectarian violence, the military said.
This raises the number of American casualties in Iraq since the U.S.-led invasion in March 2003 to 3,003 killed and more than 22,000 wounded according to U.S. data.
OTHER SECURITY INCIDENTS Baghdad: U.S. forces killed the coach of Iraq's basketball team for the disabled in front of his house in the area of al-Mansour, western Baghdad, according to an official in Iraq's Paralympics Committee. A roadside bomb killed three civilians and wounded seven others in eastern Baghdad. Three of those injured were policemen. The bomb was hidden in a pile of garbage in the Camp Sarah neighborhood, a mixed area, police said. Iraqi police patrols found 17 unidentified bodies in separate parts of northern Baghdad district of al-Aazamiya. Police officials in Baghdad said 15 bodies were discovered in the mainly industrial Sheikh Omar district of northern Baghdad. U.S. forces raided the Imam al-Muntazhir mosque in Baghdad's al-Hurriya district and cordoned several streets in the area, eyewitnesses said. U.S. troops killed a suspected al-Qaida weapons dealer and two other people in Baghdad. Five armed men began firing at coalition forces when they approached a targeted building, the military said. "Coalition forces returned fire killing three armed men and wounding a fourth," it said. The building burst into flames. A roadside bomb went off at the Camp Sarah neighborhood in eastern Baghdad early in the morning, wounding six people. Seven Iraqi civilians were wounded when an explosive charge went off southeast of Baghdad, a police source said.
Diyala Prv: Gunmen shot dead Ali Majeed Salbokh, a member of the Diyala provincial council, and three of his aides, 20 km (12 miles) east of Baquba on Monday.
Fallujah: A roadside bomb exploded at a U.S. patrol in Falluja's district of Saqlawiya, destroying a Humvee vehicle, but it was not clear if there were casualties among troops, eyewitnesses said.
Madean: Gunmen forced a minibus to stop and kidnapped a family in the town of Madaen, 45 km (25 miles) south of Baghdad, Interior Ministry sources said. It was not known exactly how many people were missing. Unknown gunmen shot dead six people,including three children, from one family in south of Baghdad on Tuesday, an Interior Ministry source said. "Armed men stormed the house of a family in the Ja'arah village near Madain town early in the morning and opened fire, killing all the family members," the source told Xinhua on condition of anonymity.
Nahrawan: Police found five bodies bearing signs of torture and bullet wounds in the town of Nahrawan, 30 km (20 miles) southeast of Baghdad.
Mosul: The hospital in Mosul received the bullet-riddled bodies of three brothers on Monday, hospital and morgue sources said.

And meanwhile the Iraq government ordered the closure of the Baghdad office of a Dubai-based television station whose newscaster wore black mourning clothes while reporting on the hanging of Hussein. And they're going to investigate Saddam's tawdry execution.
Nice to know they're got their priorities straight.

Jesus wept

Anon Liberal, writing at Unclaimed Territory reports that Head War Cheerleader and Neocon Extraordinare Bill Kristol is going to be a columnist in Time magazine.
Kristol was just so pumped last summer by the prospect of a Middle East war that even Fox News thought he was mad:

You just want war, war, war, and you want us in more war. You wanted us in Iraq. Now you want us in Iran. Now you want us to get into the Middle East . . . You’re saying, why doesn’t the United States take this hard, unforgiving line? Well, the hard and unforgiving line has been, we don’t talk to anybody. We don’t talk to Hamas. We don’t talk to Hezbollah. We’re not going to talk to Iran. Where has it gotten us, Bill?

Great photo of the day

If I hadn't seen it, I wouldn't have believed it.
Alison at Creekside generously shares this fantastic, ridiculous, essence-of-pop-culture photo -- the Star Wars stormtroopers carry the flags of the world in the Rose Bowl parade.

Great line of the day

As the story of Saddam Hussein's cheap, hurried, ugly, and thuggish execution emerges, Josh Marshall asks the question about which many Americans will be wondering:

Is that what 3,000 Americans died for?

And just to hammer another nail into the coffin of American hopes in Iraq, now go read BBC reporter John Simpson on Saddam's new reputation as a martyr.

Follow the bouncing ball

Related to my post from a couple of days ago about how the world is not waiting for US leadership anymore, here is Richard Clarke writing the Washington Post about all of the world crises which the US should be doing something about, but isn't -- global warming, Russian retrenchment, Latin America's "leftist lurch", wars in Africa, arms control, international crime, and problems with the Pakinstan-Afghan border. Clark blames the Bush administration's distration with Iraq:

. . . with the nation involved in a messy war spiraling toward a bad conclusion, the key deputies and Cabinet members and advisers are all focusing on one issue, at the expense of all others: Iraq.
National Security Council veteran Rand Beers has called this the "7-year-old's soccer syndrome" -- just like little kids playing soccer, everyone forgets their particular positions and responsibilities and runs like a herd after the ball.

But on the other hand, given the Bush administration's record of failure, maybe we're safer if they all stay distracted.

Feud

I've been trying to decide on my response to the news that Saddam Hussein is dead -- he loomed so large in the US reasons for their invasion, yet in the end he was such a ridiculous figure.
So what does his death mean? Should we be glad? indifferent? hopeful? fearful? Will it lead to more violence or less?
Here is one response which will likely turn out to be accurate, from Juan Cole in Salon:

Saddam's hanging is just one more occasion for a blood feud in a country that now has thousands of them.

Greatest talking point ever!

It's the most billiant spin ever twisted, the best talking point ever produced. It's a phrase so fiendishly useful that we'll be hearing it again and again, from every government and corporation on earth.
Crooks and Liars quotes Homeland Security spokesperson Fran Townsend talking about the US failure to capture Osama Bin Laden. And really, it isn't a failure at all:

"It's a success that hasn't occurred yet."

Amazing! In one quick turn of phrase, a miserable present reality is converted into a glorious future achievement. How could anyone criticize this? Likewise, I suppose, one could describe just about any government or corporate failure.
Overspending? Government deficits? Naahh, those are just balanced budgets that haven't occured yet.
Election promises ignored or broken? Not at all, just fulfilment that hasn't occured yet.
Business decline? Inventory overstock? Real estate tanking? Nope, just a strong economy that hasn't occured yet.
Corruption and scandal? No such thing, just unimpeachable ethics that haven't occured yet.