"Popular" vote? Not so much

Here is the vote result in Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta:
Liberals: 500,000 votes - 4 seats
NDP: 466,000 votes - 4 seats
Conservatives: 2 million votes - 54 seats
So don't talk to me about the "popular vote"! On that basis, the Cons are extremely over-represented in western Canada.
 And here's some info about the rest of the country:

When Canadians have swung 66% in favour of climate action, hard to see how the CPC can form even a minority govt in the foreseeable future.

Their path to power depends on making huge gains in that ROC where they got 28% of the vote. 2/

— Sandy Garossino (@Garossino) October 27, 2019

Rats behind the wheel!

Check this out, and don't miss the comments:

Rats are capable of driving tiny cars, researchers found. It eases their anxiety. https://t.co/Gsn4sg1ufO pic.twitter.com/0WjEJpByug

— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) October 24, 2019

Great tweet of the day

What does Andrew Sheer, Stephen Harper and I have in common? None of us could beat Justin Trudeau! Lol

— Patrick Brazeau -Algonquin 🇨🇦 (@senatorbrazeau) October 24, 2019

When you come to the end of a perfect day

I didn't hear it myself, but I guess Singh was taking too long with his concession speech and Scheer started his concession speech before Singh finished,  then Trudeau started HIS victory speech before Scheer finished. 

And the Canadian media were just thrilled.

Nobody ever seems to turn down an opportunity to inflate a controversy out of nothing, issue twitter tut-tuts, clutch pearls, come down with the vapours, and chatter about how PMJT was behaving so RUDELY!
I rather liked Jason Cherniak's reaction:

In hindsight, it’s too bad Trudeau didn’t just tell everybody last night that Scheer was refusing to try to work together. Maybe it wasn’t the sort of thing you rush into at 2am after 40 days of election 2/2 #elxn43

— Cherniak (@Cherniak) October 22, 2019

He explained how he told Trudeau last night something to the effect that he had lost the confidence of Canadians

— Cherniak (@Cherniak) October 22, 2019

Is it bad that I’m kinda loving Petty Trudeau and his speech move? Like, Scheer cuts off Singh and Trudeau says “hold my beer” 🤣🤣🤣

Love it.

#elxn43

— Lexa Doig (@LexaDoig) October 22, 2019

One Canadian who does NOT sound pissed off is Ontario Premier Doug Ford :

Ford issued a statement Tuesday morning congratulating Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on his victory and applauding all federal leaders for a “hard fought campaign.”
He says he looks forward to working with Ottawa to address “shared priorities,” including infrastructure, internal trade and mental health

And the Toronto Sun adds:

Ford’s statement stands out for its conciliatory tone

Yeah, I'll say.  The Conservative Brain Trust behind Scheer convinced Ford to spend the entire campaign at an Undisclosed Location, but it didn't help Scheer do better in Ontario, so I would think that this morning Ford is furious at Scheer.

Russia moves in to the Middle East

So Russia is moving in to the Middle East, now that Trump has abandoned the field:

The negotiations ended in a victory for Mr. Putin: Russian and Turkish troops will take joint control over a vast swath of formerly Kurdish-held territory in northern Syria, in a move that cements the rapid expansion of Russian influence in Syria at the expense of the United States and its Kurdish former allies. Under terms of the agreement, Syrian Kurdish forces have six days to retreat more than 20 miles from the border, abandoning land that they had controlled uncontested until earlier this month — when their protectors, the American military, suddenly began to withdraw from the region.

This is, I think, the first time this has ever happened to the United States. But with Trump, likely not the last time.  What an embarrassment.

Moscow is now the powerbroker in the Middle East as Trump has rendered the US irrelevant. Putin has temporarily ceded Erdogan a buffer zone from which he can displace Kurdish inhabitants (aka ethnic cleansing) in return for recognition of Moscow's diktat. https://t.co/Ki4Gbokw4w

— Michael Carpenter (@mikercarpenter) October 22, 2019

There is gonna be SO much Hillary stuff on Fox News tonight

— Ben Wexler (@mrbenwexler) October 22, 2019

Dueling crowd sizes

So CBC's Katie Simpson was impressed that Andrew Scheer's speech in Richmond Hill Ontario last night attracted 1,500 people, she calls it his biggest crowd so far:

Biggest crowd I’ve seen so far for Andrew Scheer. We’ll do a rough count and ask party for numbers as we do. The rally is being held in a Richmond Hill, Ontario, banquet hall. pic.twitter.com/F1oVNAqc7s

— Katie Simpson (@CBCKatie) October 20, 2019

Well, Justin Trudeau attracted 1,500 people yesterday too. In Calgary.  At midnight:

Saturday night in #Calgary, nearly midnight — at least 1,500 supporters waited HOURS in the cold to see @JustinTrudeau & @NirmalaNaidoo. Amazing.#ChooseForward #elxn43 #cdnpoli #abpoli pic.twitter.com/Urhoy4M1FD

— Cameron Ahmad (@CameronAhmad) October 20, 2019

When the story of this campaign is written, it must include the number of times federal leaders were thrown off their message by the hurly-burly of news and events -- for Trudeau, it was the blackface scandal three weeks ago; now for Scheer it is the Kinsella secret smear scandal, which couldn't have some at a worse time for him.

But the measure of leadership is not whether such scandals happen, but how a real leader handles it. 

For Trudeau, he immediately admitted he had done it, apologized profusely, and also volunteered that there had been other times he had worn blackface when in high school. This all immediately tooe the wind out of any follow-up stories, and ended any "gotcha" questions from reporters. Everybody moved on.

While over several days now Scheer has been robotically repeating stupid war room talking points about how some mythical CPC "rules" prevent him from talking about "vendors" at all -- thereby creating the #ScheerVendors hashtag trending this morning, extending the scandal right into election day itself, making it the only thing reporters are asking him about (except for a few questions about why in the world he would tell such a stupid lie about the Liberals raising the GST). And all at a time in the campaign when there is no time for moving on at all.

I hope Canadians are making note of who is handling problems well, and who is not.

Great tweet of the day

Andrew Scheer seemed doomed to finish his first (and perhaps last) election campaign as CPC leader without having accomplished anything of significance. Then, he managed the impossible: He ceded the moral high ground to Maxime Bernier. #KinsellaGate #MaximeBernier #cdnpoli

— Sir Francis (@Dred_Tory) October 19, 2019

Wow - tonight Ekos predicts a Liberal govt

NOTE: I just edited this post title to clarify that EKOS is predicting a Liberal government, but isn't yet predicting a Liberal MAJORITY - depends on how some of the close seats go.

Here's the latest tweet from EKOS:

Flash! For all those still up I have just received my latest numbers from today . Adding to the most recent I can say with confidence that the LPC are going to win Elxn 43. The only question is whether it will be a majority or minority and it is looking like the former

— Frank Graves (@VoiceOfFranky) October 20, 2019

I was hoping for this kind of news today, because attendance at Trudeau rallies is getting large and enthusiastic:

📍 Milton #ChooseForward pic.twitter.com/PaLgfO7Xqe

— Justin Trudeau (@JustinTrudeau) October 19, 2019

Whoa! This is a massive group of people to see @JustinTrudeau in #Winnipeg. All are here to #ChooseForward. #LPC #cdnpoli #elxn43 pic.twitter.com/pM4wrVrVUi

— KSP_Libs (@KSP_Libs) October 19, 2019

— Justin Trudeau (@JustinTrudeau) October 19, 2019

Trudeau uses the "sing louder and paddle harder" line to huge cheers from the crowd. Things seem to be coming together for the Liberals, just as they are falling apart for the Conservatives. "Good event, really good event,' says one man leaving the Milton rally.

— John Ivison (@IvisonJ) October 19, 2019

Worst tweet of the day

Two days to go, and we may well have a winner for worst media tweet of this election.  

Here it is, from CBC's Rosemary Barton, along with my somewhat snarky reply:

Rosemary I did not realize there were 1000s of activist Canadians who were just waiting for election of a Liberal govt with a compliant leader so they could pass private members bills to raise the GST. Quel suprise!

— Cathie from Canada 🇨🇦 (@CathieCanada) October 19, 2019

For one thing, these issues are not comparable in the least. Accusing the Liberals of wanting to raise the GST is a completely baseless and out-of-the-blue lie of desperation from Andrew Scheer.  Accusing Conservatives of wanting to criminalize abortion recognizes that this is exactly what thousands of Canadian "right to life" activists want Scheer to do.  While Harper didn't knuckle under to these elements, I believe it is now a serious risk considering Scheer's base of support and the types of CPC candidates he has recruited.  He doesn't even need to pass an abortion law at the federal level as such; rather, he could just pass a private members bill permitting provincial legislatures to decide whether to allow abortions and under what conditions, thus creating a patchwork mess across the country.

It surprises me that Barton doesn't appear to understand the difference at all.  But the hundreds of comments about this tweet show that Canadians understand it very well.

Edmonton ❤ Greta

Here are some photos of  Climate Change/Greta Thunberg rally in Edmonton.  

Climate Justice Edmonton says there were 10,000 at the rally.

I guess United We Roll was there too with counter-protestors in trucks, but they aren't visible in these photos:

I don't think the counter-protestors are playing a winning hand.  Here's a tweet that sort of sums it up:

Pretty much. #UnitedWeRoll #GretaInAlberta #Ableg pic.twitter.com/RWSeSMU6jt

— Handmaids For Kenney (@HandmaidAlberta) October 18, 2019

And apparently Kenny's office blocked his windows so he didn't have to see what is going on.  Sorta prophetic, don't you think -- climate change deniers don't want to see what is going on in the world.  There are none so blind as those who will not see.

⁦.⁦@jkenney⁩ Premier’s Office blocks all the windows while tens of thousands of youth in front of the Legislature want to send him a message. Closed minds. Closed windows. #ableg #cdnpoli #EarPlugs pic.twitter.com/NJrdtGRpRO

— Thomas A. Lukaszuk (@LukaszukAB) October 18, 2019

Meghan Markle and the racist British press

I knew the British tabloids were racist, but I had no idea how cruel they had been throughout Meghan Markle's pregnancy.  I guess there is a documentary being done about it, and here is an excerpt:

Jesus. This just broke my heart. pic.twitter.com/13KsROklv9

— Greg Hogben (@MyDaughtersArmy) October 18, 2019

#WeLoveYouMeghan is trending today on Twitter. And its about time. Here is some of the garbage that has been selling newspapers in Britain. It reminds me of some of the crap that Michelle Obama had to put up with:

And for comparison purposes, here is how they covered Kate Middleton or other celebrities, compared to exactly the same stories about Meghan Markle.

Liberal minority govt predicted

Forum Research predicts Liberal minority govt -- Liberal 133 seats, Conservative 121, NDP 46, BQ 37, Green 1.
FYI, Forum was the only pollster 2015 to correctly predict the Lib Majority, so I am going to hope that their prediction is good this time, too.
What is will come down to, as it always does, is whether the Liberals can get their vote out.
 Here's two threads from Ed the Sock - one about Trudeau, and one about Scheer. Iits worthwhile reading the whole thing:

I'm voting #Liberal & #IStandwithTrudeau. Not because he's perfect but because he tries & his govt has been good for Canada. You make your own choice. But if you want to know who JT is from someone who's actually known him (received not a single perk or benefit), I just told you.

— Ed the Sock (@EdtheSock) October 15, 2019

No matter the outcome Monday I will never forgive #Scheer, #HamishMarshall & their cadre who have acted like pondscum, knowing they had nothing of substance - ir they couldn't hit the #Libs on economic record - they opted for a very American campaign of unrelenting lies

— Ed the Sock (@EdtheSock) October 17, 2019

Just a little funny stuff

Make sure you watch to the end:

The Liberals are just a hot mess. #Compromise2019 pic.twitter.com/uJP5MaJrv7

— 22Minutes (@22_Minutes) October 16, 2019

And this one:

The Nobel Prize in Chemistry has been awarded to the inventor of rechargeable batteries. But he doesn't know it yet because his phone is dead.

— 22Minutes (@22_Minutes) October 15, 2019

And now for something completely different:

- awesome 👍 👏 pic.twitter.com/up8Ur4XmI1

— Köksal Akın (@newworlddd555) October 15, 2019

Great Tweet of the Day

Via the inimitable Dick King-Smith - you owe it to yourself to follow his tweets.  Make sure to have the sound on for this one:

Teddy the talking porcupine enjoys an autumnal treat.
Sound on, if you please. pic.twitter.com/PuQmCN3Srv

— Dick King-Smith HQ (@DickKingSmith) October 4, 2019

Commander in Least

I haven't checked because I don't want to ruin my amateur standing, but as far as I can remember, the US Constitution gives only one real job to a U.S. President -- being Commander in Chief of their armed forces.

And for someone who hardly works at all, Trump is really screwing up that job lately.  

His most recent ignorant stunt was to knuckle under to Turkey and abandon the Syrian Kurds, which he announced all of a sudden last Sunday night, without preamble, planning or rationale.  Taking Care of (Putin's) Business, I guess, before he gets impeached.

Of course Turkey invaded Syria immediately -- which everybody knew would happen and which Trump even green-lit in his statement -- though the Senate has now passed sanctions on Turkey and Trump is going along with the tut-tutting.  

The invasion forced the Kurds to ally with Syria to survive.  ISIS prison camps are being abandoned, and US troops were pulled out so quickly they apparently didn't make arrangements to evacuate 50 US nuclear weapons stored at an airbase in the region (and why were they there anyway? Oops!)  

The winners in this clusterfuck will be Turkey, Syria and Russia, with Iran apparently benefiting somehow as well.  

At the same time as Trump is trying to justify abandoning the Kurds by saying he wants to get the US out of the Middle East, he also announced he is sending 2,800 troops to Saudi Arabia, to protect their oil fields apparently -- but in this case the Saudis are paying for these troops, thus making the largest and best equipped armed force in the world into mercenaries-for-hire.  Whether they are supposed to  follow the orders of Trump or of MBS, I don't think Trump even knows -- or understands there might be a difference. 

Last weekend was also supposed to mark some kind of resumption of negotiations between North Korea and the USA regarding denuclearization. But if you blinked you missed it, because the negotiations lasted only a few hours before being suspended again, likely until 2020.  Chances are Pompeo will be gone by then, and maybe Trump too.  So that means starting over with North Korea.

And last week as well, Trump pulled out of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty with Russia -- even Putin wasn't happy about that.  At least the START treaty doesn't expire until 2021.

And even though Trump said there was a new trade deal with China, he lied, as usual.