First, cartoons!
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Meidas provides the full text of the MOU. Here is a summary of what is to happen immediately, and what is to happen by the end of August:
To be implemented immediately:From the world's point of view, I can understand why Carney was positive about many of the components off this deal. He may well be correct that the MOU could work. In the CNN interview I wrote about yesterday, Carney called the MOU "well structured", "a game changer", "performance-based", and said that "everyone in the G7 is behind it".
-America and Iran and their allies in the current war are signing this MOU to declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon...
-Immediately upon signing, America will begin the removal of its naval blockade and any disturbances or impediments against Iran, and will fully end the naval blockade within 30 days. ...America further undertakes to remove its forces from the proximity of Iran within 30 days after the final deal.
-Upon signing the MOU, Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge, for 60 days only, from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa. The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start, and considering the need for removing the technical and military obstacles, and demining by Iran will be instated within 30 days. Iran will conduct dialog with Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz in discussion with other Persian Gulf states...
-Immediately upon the signing and until the termination of sanctions, US Department of Treasury will issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products and derivatives, and all associated services, including banking transactions, insurances, transportation, etc.
-America undertakes to make fully available for use the frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran upon the implementation of this MOU. America and Iran will mutually agree on the procedures related to the release of these funds during negotiations. Such funds, whether retained in the original account or transferred, shall be made fully usable for payment to any ultimate beneficiary designated by the Central Bank of Iran. America undertakes to issue all necessary licenses and authorizations accordingly.
Also agreed but may still need to be negotiated:
- America and Iran undertake to respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and to refrain from interfering in each other’s internal affairs.
— America and Iran commit to negotiating and achieving the final deal in maximum 60 days, extendable with mutual consent.
— America undertakes with regional partners to develop a definitive, mutually agreed plan with at least USD 300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of Iran. The mechanism for the implementation of this plan will be finalized as part of a final deal within 60 days. All required licenses, waivers and permissions needed for the relevant financial transactions will be granted by America.
— America undertakes to terminate all types of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the United Nations Security Council resolutions, IAEA Board of Governors resolutions, and all unilateral US sanctions, primary and secondary, in an agreed upon schedule as part of the final deal.
— Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons. America and Iran have agreed to resolve the disposition of stockpiled enriched material pursuant to a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon in accordance with the schedule mentioned in paragraph seven, with the minimum methodology to be down blended on site under the supervision of the IAEA. The two parties also agreed to discuss the issue of enrichment and other mutually agreed matters related to the Islamic Republic of Iran’s nuclear needs, based on a satisfactory framework being agreed upon in the final deal. The final deal will confirm the provisions of this paragraph. America and Iran acknowledge the critical importance of the nuclear issues above mentioned. They express their intention to immediately address these issues in the negotiations in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.
— Pending the final deal, America and Iran agree to maintain the status quo. Iran will maintain the current status quo of its nuclear program, and America will not impose any new sanctions and will not deploy additional forces in the region. — America and Iran agree that an executive mechanism will be established to monitor the successful implementation of this MOU and the future compliance of the final deal.
— After signing this MOU, and subject to the beginning of the implementation of paragraphs 1, 4, 5, 10 and 11 of this MOU, and the continuing implementation of these measures, America and Iran will start negotiations regarding the final deal exclusively on the other paragraphs. — The final deal will be endorsed by a binding UNSC resolution.
Here is a New York Times analysis of the MOU [gift link] and I have pulled out some of their commentary relating to Carney's statements:
...The references to Lebanon here amount to remarkable rejections by the United States of Israel’s concerns about the threat posed by Hezbollah, the Iran-aligned militia group based in Lebanon....I also checked Phillips O'Brien's substack tonight, and he also had many comments. O'Brien says:
By removing the blockade, the United States is freeing Iran to export again from its ports — and to have goods delivered to the country as well. That is a critical, immediate win for the Iranians, whose exports go overwhelmingly to China....
Relief from crushing economic sanctions may be the only thing that can persuade Iran to surrender its nuclear program....
[The agreement] requires Iran to “down-blend” — essentially dilute — the approximately 11 tons of enriched nuclear material in its possession, including 970 pounds that are enriched to 60 percent, just short of bomb grade...
For Iran, maintaining the “status quo” of its nuclear program amounts to leaving its bombed nuclear facilities in ruins and its uranium entombed beneath the rubble of air strikes....
Finalizing how a deal will be enforced is perhaps the most important part of any agreement. A U.S. official said the Americans want to make sure all Iranian commitments are “verifiable.”...
Iran’s nuclear program will be the primary focus of further negotiations....
The future agreement would get the imprimatur of the United Nations Security Council...
...The US has signed up to a deal which puts it in a far worse strategic position than it was in on February 27, 2026 (the day before the bombing started). It is not returning to the status quo ante: it is creating an entirely new, and much weaker, status quo (for the USA).I'm not so sure Carney should be hopeful that the world's concerns about Iran will be dealt with in the final deal - Trump is such an unreliable and mercurial negotiator that I suspect there may never be a permanent deal signed between America and Iran.
The USA is pledging to respect the Iranian regime, immediately restore some funding to it, immediately allow the Iranian regime to start trading oil freely, and not to interfere with its present nuclear capabilities. Moreover, the USA is tacitly recognizing that Iran will control shipping in the Strait (with Oman) going forward and has not ruled out the ability of Iran and Oman to charge tolls after 60 days.
In the near future, the US is pledging to help organize a massive reparations program for Iran, to pull back American forces from the vicinity of Iran, to end all sanctions on Iran, and to pledge its commitment to all of this with a UN Security Council Resolution.
And what has the US gotten in return?
Well, it has gotten a temporary reopening of the Strait of Hormuz (under significantly worse conditions than existed on February 27, 2026) and a restatement of a nuclear pledge that Iran has made for years and years.
It is hard to grasp just how humiliating this is for the USA (and Israel). They chose to start this war after great preparation, they used their most advanced technology, and they used up massive military stocks in bombing Iran for six weeks.
And they are in a much worse situation....
But when I saw this news story, I could understand better why Carney would throw his support behind the MOU. He talked to CNN just yesterday about the importance of not allowing economic "choke points" like the Strait of Hormuz to engander the world economy again, but I hadn't considered how this could positively affect Canada.
A trusted, reliable partner in a world that’s anything but.
— Mark Carney (@mark-carney.bsky.social) June 17, 2026 at 6:54 PM
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However, another point Carney discussed with CNN was his long-standing concern to see the world deal with Iran's destabilizing effect in the Middle East and its nuclear ambitions. I'm afraid he may end up disappointed in how Trump's MOU will work out in that goal.
In The Globe and Mail, Andrew Coyne made a prophetic point about the MOU disaster that I hadn't thought about before:
From America's view, the MOU is a surrender and they are furious with Trump's capitulation -ending the sanctions, giving back Iraq's money, promising not to demand regime change, maybe losing US bases in the region, finding $300 billion for Iran reconstruction, and no nuclear deal yet.
Trump is already blaming the MOU on Vance.
But he can't stop himself from babbling about the MOU later:
So as anger in America grows, I suspect Iran and the G7 will discover, as Canada already has, that "signed deals" mean nothing to Trump.
Other things that make me say hmmmm.....
Maybe we're also going to see the end of the G7 as such. Here's an interesting thread from a scientist who calls himself Somnambulist Observer:
Here is some good news for Canada from the G7
Meanwhile, back in Canada: A perceptive piece by Alberta teacher Vince Hill: The Politics of Permanent Contempt: Why Poilievre’s Strategy Will Be His Undoing
Why does the whole CPC act like their little world in Ottawa is the only place where anything important to Canadians happens?
It would be very satisfying for Canada to see Carney bash Trump on the international stage the way we all want to. But of course it would ruin the country, so Carney will never, ever do it.
Yeah, I feel this way too:
I thought it was remarkable that the Alberta Chiefs took this step:
Premier Smith is, of course, upset at their "lack of respect" even though she showed none to them to begin with.
I agree with Picard about the importance of MAID
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John Cleese posts Monty Python's Philosophers Match - hilarious:
Today's Pride Update
...Far from regime change, the mullahs look more entrenched than ever. Having survived the worst that America and Israel could throw at them, they are tougher, more radicalized, more convinced of their divine mission.
Most of all, they are, as it were, freed. Before the war, Iran might have hesitated to take this or that action – for example, seizing the Strait of Hormuz – for fear of the military response that would surely follow. But the military response having come and gone, what now is there to deter them?
...What else is in the deal? Nothing, so far as anyone can tell, on Iran’s ballistic missile program. Nothing on reining in its proxy groups, Hezbollah and Hamas. Oh, and the U.S. agrees to lift its own blockade on the Strait, allowing Iran to earn more export revenues, while the talks and talks about talks drag on.
If you are looking for the silver lining, the “yes, but,” you can stop looking. This is Mr. Trump, after all. He is a simpleton, surrounded by fools and lunatics. They had no idea of what they were getting into with this war, no plan to prosecute it, and no clue as to what would come after. A few days’ bombing, a decapitated leadership, and they’d leave everyone else to clean up the mess...
The world isn't as afraid of America's military anymore, either - I'm seeing joke posts like that first cartoon, with countries betting on how much they could get from a Trump war.
Here's an interesting view of what Carney and the world mean by "game-changer":
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From America's view, the MOU is a surrender and they are furious with Trump's capitulation -ending the sanctions, giving back Iraq's money, promising not to demand regime change, maybe losing US bases in the region, finding $300 billion for Iran reconstruction, and no nuclear deal yet.
Trump is already blaming the MOU on Vance.
He is delighted to throw Vance under the bus, at the end of an off-the-wall press conference. Some clips, if you can bear them:View on Threads
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But he can't stop himself from babbling about the MOU later:
Trump endorses Iran having ballistic missiles: "I'm saying that if other countries have them, it's a little unfair for them not to have some"
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) June 17, 2026 at 1:14 PM
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So as anger in America grows, I suspect Iran and the G7 will discover, as Canada already has, that "signed deals" mean nothing to Trump.
Other things that make me say hmmmm.....
Maybe we're also going to see the end of the G7 as such. Here's an interesting thread from a scientist who calls himself Somnambulist Observer:
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Here is some good news for Canada from the G7
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Meanwhile, back in Canada: A perceptive piece by Alberta teacher Vince Hill: The Politics of Permanent Contempt: Why Poilievre’s Strategy Will Be His Undoing
...Poilievre is skilled at one thing above all else: fixating on the negative and making it sound like clarity. “Everything is broken.” “Justinflation.” Now, barely a year into Mark Carney’s government, the same machine has simply swapped targets. Carney is a hypocrite. Carney failed to get a trade deal with Trump, as if there exists some alternate-universe negotiator who could have walked away with a better outcome from an erratic American administration that has bullied allies across the board. The script doesn’t change because the script isn’t really about Carney, or Trudeau, or whoever’s in the chair. It’s about manufacturing a permanent enemy, because grievance is what built the audience in the first place.I think Canadians know an empty suit when they see one:
And it works, for a while. There’s a real constituency for it, because a lot of people genuinely feel like they’ve been failed by government, by the economy, by institutions that were supposed to look out for them. That feeling is legitimate. The pain is legitimate. But Poilievre’s answer to that pain isn’t a vision, it’s a target. Find someone to blame, point at them, repeat. It’s effective retail politics. It is not leadership....
... But a single sentence about unity, wrapped in paragraphs about Ottawa’s culpability, isn’t a pivot. It’s the old message with a softer opening. And Albertans, especially the ones flirting with separatism, the ones he says want “different policies in Ottawa,” not a different country, can tell the difference between a leader offering them a shared future and a leader offering them a more sophisticated reason to stay angry.
That’s the tell. A leader who actually wants to govern a country has to, at some point, start talking about the country as something worth holding together, full stop, without the asterisk. Poilievre has spent so long telling Canadians the place is broken that he’s lost the ability to make the pivot stick. Hope is not in his toolkit, because hope doesn’t generate the same engagement as outrage. But hope is what builds governing coalitions. Outrage builds followings....
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Why does the whole CPC act like their little world in Ottawa is the only place where anything important to Canadians happens?
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It would be very satisfying for Canada to see Carney bash Trump on the international stage the way we all want to. But of course it would ruin the country, so Carney will never, ever do it.
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Yeah, I feel this way too:
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I thought it was remarkable that the Alberta Chiefs took this step:
Amazing!! Assembly of Treaty Chiefs is demanding an investigation into Premier Danielle Smith and UPC potential TREASON! 👏👏We will cover this on Thursday’s 🇨🇦 OShow Scandal Panel! #cndpoli #Ableg #Alberta #ABpoli
— Laura Babcock 🇨🇦 (@laura-babcock.bsky.social) June 17, 2026 at 12:29 PM
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Premier Smith is, of course, upset at their "lack of respect" even though she showed none to them to begin with.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith fired back at First Nations chiefs for accusing her of treason saying it was "disgraceful." The chiefs voted unanimously at a Calgary meeting to call for an RCMP investigation into Smith and the UCP on a fall separatism vote.
— APTN News (@aptnnews.bsky.social) June 17, 2026 at 5:42 PM
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Morin says chiefs are doing something "very admirable" in Alberta by fighting for treaties and for Canadian unity.
— APTN News (@aptnnews.bsky.social) June 3, 2026 at 3:25 PM
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I agree with Picard about the importance of MAID
In The Globe and Mail, Andre Picard writes:On MAID, the dean of 🇨🇦Canadian health care journalists, Mr. Picard, administers a necessary corrective to the wild-eyed claims of professional hysterics like Ms Urback who offered a nutbar pack of lies in last weekend’s @TheGlobeandMail.com.
— David Hamer (@davidhamer1951.bsky.social) June 16, 2026 at 7:43 AM
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...As we mark the 10th anniversary of Bill C-14, Medical Assistance in Dying, on June 17, we should be celebrating, not hand-wringing.
The culture of dying has changed fundamentally, for the better. About one in every 20 deaths is now medically assisted.
...MAID is a modern term for an ancient desire – to have some agency at end-of-life, to minimize suffering.
Those who oppose choice seem to believe suffering is a necessary part of the human condition, an unavoidable part of life and death.
It’s fine to embrace that worldview, but you should not be allowed to impose that belief on others, especially in the legislation of a secular society.
For many Canadians, MAID has become a ritual and ceremony, like marriage, or childbirth. In most cases, it is a celebration of life.
There are tears, laughs, music and all manner of deeply personal gestures, from carefully curated final meals to deeply deliberated musical choices to mark the passage. These are the kind of rituals that can only exist when death comes at the time and place of your choosing.
When abortion was legalized, anti-choice activists issued dire warnings about fetal slaughter run amok. Never happened.
In fact, Canada hasn’t had an abortion law for almost 40 years and things function as they should, with women making deeply personal reproductive choices in concert with health care providers.
We’ve had endless warnings about the “slippery slope” of MAID as well, frightening claims that we will see the culling of the elderly, of people with disabilities, those suffering from mental illness, and those who live in poverty.
Hasn’t happened, and it won’t. Not all slopes are slippery. The cases that push the boundaries are a path to better legislation, and better care. ...People are living much longer, but they want to live better. They also want to die better.
The public has always been way ahead of the academics and politicians on these issues. Canada has been a world leader, and we should be proud of it...
World Cup stories
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John Cleese posts Monty Python's Philosophers Match - hilarious:
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Today's Pride Update
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