Happening Now: a Liberal turn-around?

As Canada hunkers down to survive another Canadian winter, we may be starting to see some signs of a turn-around in Liberal fortunes. Liberals are trending a little higher in the polls:

(Support me by subscribing/donating) Federal Polling: CPC: 39% (+5) LPC: 29% (-5) NDP: 17% (-1) BQ: 7% (-1) GPC: 5% (+3) PPC: 3% (-2) Others: 2% EKOS / Nov 11, 2024 / n=1241 / MOE 2.8% / IVR (% Change With 2021 Federal Election) Check federal details on @338canada.bsky.social at: 338canada.com

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— Polling Canada (@canadianpolling.bsky.social) November 12, 2024 at 3:27 PM

Trudeau is able to remind Canadians now what a good job his government did in dealing with Trump 2016-2020, and would do again:

When I was researching my book on Trudeau, I was impressed by how broad the coalition was that helped Trudeau maintain our trade relationship with during Trump 1.0. 1/x

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— Stephen Maher (@stephenmaher.bsky.social) November 15, 2024 at 8:14 AM

I’m so grateful that @JustinTrudeau had the foresight to bring vaccine manufacturing back to Canada. I mean when RFK has the health file in America…..🤷‍♀️

— Carla Newfeld (@caninesrmysoul) November 6, 2024

“Trump’s team wants Trudeau out in favour of the populist Poilievre”

Exactly. They want someone who won’t fight for Canada and will capitulate easier to the American side. This is a huge compliment to the PM.https://t.co/um14x9jWAx

— Stephano Barberis (@HelloStephano) November 14, 2024

Trudeau's past experience with Trump in avoiding a prolonged tariff war and signing a new trilateral trade deal in 2026 has made him a valuable commodity at the 2 summits of world leaders he will attend over the next week. Justin Trudeau successfully handled Trump during his… https://t.co/xHbl0lOk1m

— timethief 🇨🇦 progressive centrist feminist (@timethief) November 15, 2024

Canada v. Trump: The "Revenge Tour" begins

Well, that didn't last long, did it? 

As much as I truly want to deny Trump any space in my head or in this blog, its just not going to be possible. 

I'm calling this presidency "Trump 2: The Revenge Tour" as his Cabinet appointments bring his priorities into focus, pointing toward some of the problems Canada will need to face during Trump's presidency: 

- how will we help thousands (or tens of thousands) of refugees escaping Trump's concentration camps? 

- how will we defend our resources of water, oil, and minerals from Trump's greedy grasp? 

- how will we support our industries to survive Trump's tariffs? 

- how can we avoid being sucked into Trump's wars? 

The CBC's weekly At Issue panel discussion last night discussed Trump. Naturally, Rosemary Barton trotted out the "well, we survived 2016 to 2020, didn't we" and Chantal Hebert shut that down right quick - she said there will not be any comparison between the path Canada was able to take in 2016 to slide through the first Trump administration, and the existential threat to the nation that we now will face with the second Trump administration. Specifically, the panel talked about the likely refugee crisis at the US border, but they didn't have any idea how Canada could or should handle it, except to agree that the "safe third country agreement" is now ludicrous. 

Today's News: Learning from the American nightmare

If we are going to save liberalism in Canada -- the federal Liberals and maybe even Justin Trudeau also -- then we have to reach Canadians and tell them the story of what Liberalism is. 

The more we learn about what went wrong with the Harris campaign, the more people are realizing that the Democrats have abysmal communications -- yes, Harris is a black woman, a disadvantage hard to overcome in a racist and misogynistic society - but mainly the Democratic brain-trust running her campaign didn't seem to realize that too many Americans had heard four solid years of lies about awful Democrats and Biden-bashing from their media sources, and a few enthusiastic rallys on television were not going to reverse that perception.

Kamala Harris didn't campaign on pronouns or white privilege or defunding the police. So why does it feel like she did?

— DougJBalloon (@nytpitchbot.bsky.social) November 12, 2024 at 9:19 AM

 

Today's News: Canadafornia, and other ways to survive the Trumpocalypse

As we watch the United States take a right turn and go sailing off the Trump cliff, I have been looking for articles and tweet threads that give advice on what for God's sake we can do about it. 

Here's the initial batch that I found: 

First of all, there might be something to this plan:

I could live there if Mr. Trudeau would rescue us.

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— segsig.bsky.social (@segsig.bsky.social) November 12, 2024 at 9:59 PM

And here are some other, mostly serious, ideas for surviving Trump.

Stories from the Internet: Two Horses' Asses

"Stories from the Internet" is an occasional series.

Here's a story I saw on Facebook: 

The US standard railroad gauge (distance between the rails) is 4 feet, 8.5 inches. That's an exceedingly odd number. Why was that gauge used? 

Well, because that's the way they built them in England, and English engineers designed the first US railroads. 

Why did the English build them like that? Because the first rail lines were built by the same people who built the wagon tramways, and that's the gauge they used. 

So, why did 'they' use that gauge then? Because the people who built the tramways used the same jigs and tools that they had used for building wagons, which used that same wheel spacing. 

Why did the wagons have that particular odd wheel spacing? Well, if they tried to use any other spacing, the wagon wheels would break more often on some of the old, long distance roads in England . You see, that's the spacing of the wheel ruts. 

So who built those old rutted roads? Imperial Rome built the first long distance roads in Europe (including England ) for their legions. Those roads have been used ever since. 

And what about the ruts in the roads? Roman war chariots formed the initial ruts, which everyone else had to match or run the risk of destroying their wagon wheels. Since the chariots were made for Imperial Rome , they were all alike in the matter of wheel spacing. 

Therefore the United States standard railroad gauge of 4 feet, 8.5 inches is derived from the original specifications for an Imperial Roman war chariot. 

Bureaucracies live forever. So the next time you are handed a specification/procedure/process and wonder 'What horse's ass came up with this?', you may be exactly right. Imperial Roman army chariots were made just wide enough to accommodate the rear ends of two war horses. (Two horses' asses.) 

Now, the twist to the story: When you see a Space Shuttle sitting on its launch pad, there are two big booster rockets attached to the sides of the main fuel tank. These are solid rocket boosters, or SRBs. The SRBs are made by Thiokol at their factory in Utah . The engineers who designed the SRBs would have preferred to make them a bit fatter, but the SRBs had to be shipped by train from the factory to the launch site. 

The railroad line from the factory happens to run through a tunnel in the mountains, and the SRBs had to fit through that tunnel. The tunnel is slightly wider than the railroad track, and the railroad track, as you now know, is about as wide as two horses' behinds. 

So, a major Space Shuttle design feature, of what is arguably the world's most advanced transportation system, was determined over two thousand years ago by the width of a horse's ass. 

And you thought being a horse's ass wasn't important? Ancient horse's asses control almost everything.

Today's News: Canada remembers.

The Taking of Vimy Ridge, Easter Monday 1917 by Richard Jack

...Supported by a creeping barrage, the Canadian Corps captured most of the ridge during the first day. The village of Thélus fell during the second day, as did the crest of the ridge, once the Canadian Corps overran a salient against considerable German resistance. The final objective, a fortified knoll outside the village of Givenchy-en-Gohelle, fell to the Canadians on 12 April. The German 6th Army then retreated to the Oppy–Méricourt line.

Historians attribute the success of the Canadian Corps to technical and tactical innovation, meticulous planning, powerful artillery support and extensive training, as well as the inability of the 6th Army to properly apply the new German defensive doctrine. The battle was the first occasion when the four divisions of the Canadian Expeditionary Force fought together and it was made a symbol of Canadian national achievement and sacrifice. ..

...By nightfall on 12 April 1917, the Canadian Corps was in firm control of the ridge, having suffered 10,602 casualties; 3,598 men had been killed and 7,004 wounded...

Canada remembers. pic.twitter.com/Cage2KbhBw

— Canadian Army (@CanadianArmy) November 9, 2024

Today's News: Refugees, and kindness

Remember this? 

That terrible photo of Alan Kurdi, age 3, washed up on a beach in Turkey when he and his family tried to escape Syria in 2015. That little drowned child is one of the main reasons Harper lost the 2015 election. Canadians were saddened and shocked to find out that maybe we could have saved him, because his aunt lived in Coquitlam. I have never forgotten that photo, and neither has the rest of Canada. 

 And here's another one, from two years later:

A luckier child finds help from a kind RCMP as her family runs across the border in 2017, escaping from Trump to claim refugee status. These types of irregular border crossing have been shut down now, apparently, though I suspect we'll see an increase in desperate people now that Trump is president again. 

And I expect that once again, Canadians will react with kindness.  Today I saw this story:

Cornwall, Ont. prepares for potential influx of asylum seekers following U.S. election https://t.co/FdlmGrtt6g

— CTV News (@CTVNews) November 10, 2024

Walking away from Trump's America

Well, I don't know if this feeling is just my own, or something others share. 

But I realized today that I just don't care what Donald Trump does anymore. 

In his first administration, every day there was a "he said WHAT??" news story and a "he's really THAT STUPID???" analysis story, and it was just exhausting.

This time, everybody already knows he is a stupid, cruel, ignorant, and violent man, profoundly undeserving of the office to which Americans elected him. He will continue to be an asshole, his administration will be a shitshow, and millions of Americans will suffer because of it, including the people who voted for him. 

But I just can't care anymore. 

So I have unsubscribed tonight from several substacks and columns. It doesn't really matter to me who the new Secretary of State might be, nor am I interested in Trump's pick for chief of staff or attorney general or head of the CIA any of the other make-weights and incompetents and grifters who will foul his administration. Obamacare repeal, tarriffs and tax cuts for the rich will mash the American economy. Hurricanes and fires and floods will strike with escalating fury and the federal government won't send help anymore. No point in getting outraged about any of it. So it doesn't matter to me anymore whether the Democrats keep the House (likely not) nor do I care whether scattered American mayors and governors will fight the good fight against Trump - maybe they can do something, or maybe they'll just get themselves arrested for not bending the knee.

For some perspective, I highly recommend reading LeGuin’s short story, “The Ones Who Walk Away From Omelas”.

— Nnedi Okorafor, PhD🕷️ (@Nnedi) November 9, 2024

[link to "The Ones Who Walk Away from Omelas"]

So tonight I'm walking away from Trump's America. The country I care about is Canada. And the issues that concern me now are how our country can survive the end of American democracy. 

Posting about all of this will be quite enough to keep me busy. In fact, there will likely be very little else of greater importance over the next decade than this battle all Canadians will have to fight -- to stand on guard for Canada, and to keep our Canada glorious and free.

Today's News: More comments on the Trump election - Jonathan Chait, Tom Scocca, Cooper Lund, Jimmy Kimmel, Mark Hamill, and Black Cloud Six

More comments about why the Trump election happened, and how to (maybe) survive it:

New York magazine, Jonathan Chait: Trump’s ‘Unprecedented and Powerful Mandate’ Is a Lie Do not surrender in advance.

...There is a quadrennial tradition in American politics for the winning party to insist its victory amounts to an endorsement of its entire platform by the American public, while the opponents chalk the results up to personality or fleeting events.

In part, the mandate talk reflects this familiar ritual. In the big picture, Trump won because literally every opposition party running for office anywhere in the world is winning right now. Every single governing party in the developed world that has stood for reelection in 2024 has lost, the Financial Times notes. This has never happened before in the 120 years of data it has followed.

Trump exploited economic discontent and, just as he did eight years before, will almost certainly rebrand the economic recovery he inherits as a booming wonderland of prosperity. The program that Trump claims America voted to implement is a combination of promises Trump never had the slightest intention of fulfilling (no taxes on tips or overtime pay), promises Trump will probably try to implement in some form but would be catastrophic if carried out in full (funding the government through tariffs, deporting every illegal migrant or asylum seeker), and promises Trump rarely talks about but will almost certainly pursue (giving rich people a huge tax cut, reducing health-care subsidies for the poor and people with preexisting conditions). The mandate rhetoric is in part a traditional effort to gull the opposition party into withholding criticism and treating the enactment of the president’s plans as a natural outcome of the election.

Yet the 2024 version of the mandate question has far more serious overtones because Trump’s highest priority has nothing to do with policy. Trump has made it plain that his highest priority in office is to take revenge upon his enemies and intimidate his critics. ...

... It is both the nature of human life in general and democracy in particular that sometimes bad guys win. Winning does not make them cease to be bad.

Never forget that, regardless of what he wants to do or tries to do, Trump will be utterly incompetent at his job, and will hire incompetent people too:

I keep saying this to remind myself it's real, since not one person in the legacy media mentioned this at all in the past year, but HE QUIT ON THE JOB LAST TIME, he gave up on bumbling through thing after thing he couldn't handle, just wrote "EXECUTIVE TIME" on the calendar, and watched TV all day

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— Tom Scocca (@tomscocca.bsky.social) November 7, 2024 at 8:27 PM

Of course, being incompetent also makes it easier for the Bannons of the world to manipulate him. But still, at least this time the American media and civil service won't be giving him or his flying monkeys the benefit of the doubt. "Slow-walk" may well be the word of the next four years. 

Today's News: What the hell happened, and what will happen next?

Here are some tweets and comments and blog posts, reading the tea leaves.

The election: 

No More Mister Nice Blog Steve M Trump is toxically masculine...

...Trump is seen by millions as a capable problem-solver because most Americans experienced at least the first three years of his presidency as a reasonably nice time, and because decades ago he was the main character in fictionalized books and a fake reality TV series that told us he has the magic power to make great deals without breaking a sweat. They don't know that he knows nothing and that he lucked into a good economy, and that he presided over a sustained period of relative stability because he'd surrounded himself with capable people of a kind he'll never hire again....

I have a friend. His mother is an undocumented immigrant. He admitted today that he voted for Trump due to concerns about inflation.

I just don't even know what to say anymore: he's college educated, but he still thinks Trump wasn't talking about his mom. https://t.co/EshJMSUwz2

— numbers fuckstein stan (@numfuksteinstan) November 6, 2024

Your parents green card just got revoked and the family across the street just got sent to a detainment camp but at least you owned the libs, good job. 👏

— Anonymous (@YourAnonCentral) November 6, 2024

Oh, dear....America has just Brexited itself

So sad.
America just Brexited itself.

— Cathie from Canada 🇨🇦 ✍🏻😷🏳️‍🌈 🇺🇦 🇮🇱 (@CathieCanada) November 6, 2024

And the impact of a Trump win on Canada is incalculable -- on tarrifs, cross-border manufacturing, refugees, Ukraine, Gaza, NATO...

Hope!

Beautiful photo of (I hope) President Harris and the First Gentleman.

“Hope is a dangerous thing. Hope can drive a man insane.” —Me right now

— Elie Mystal (@ElieNYC) November 2, 2024

 

Post by @sunday_driver_in_ny

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My fellow Americans-

If you do not have an emotional support Canadian, now is the time sign up before supplies run out.

There is a backlog of orders because of the hate rally today, so please be patient. A Canadian will be assigned to you shortly. pic.twitter.com/rltsUY4cD0

— Tom Chapman 🇺🇸🇨🇦 (@realTomChapman) October 28, 2024

Report: 90% of Canadians plan to spend U.S. election day rocking back and forth while moaning softly https://t.co/0E948YEmSL

— The Beaverton (@TheBeaverton) October 27, 2024

Friendly reminder that from now until Wednesday, we are living in the metaphorical equivalent of an airport lounge. Calories don't count. Money doesn't matter. No one will judge you for having a beer at 10am.

— Katie Howland (@katieshowland) November 4, 2024

Keep Kamala and Carry On-a-la

The closing moments:

The Next President of the United States #SNL #NailedIt

pic.twitter.com/tMl8iFdD5o

— Abraxsys (@Abraxsys) November 3, 2024

Kamala’s SNL hit was a Slamala Dunkala!

— Tea Pain (@TeaPainUSA) November 3, 2024

Trump's final campaign message? It seems to be "Hawk Tuah!"

Things are certainly weird in the Trump campaign these days: 

I grabbed this great photo combo from an X post

Trump seems to be unable to stop himself now from talking about sex all the time -- first it was Arnold Palmer's junk, then it was another "Grab her by the pussy" moment.

Donald Trump just made a “grab her by the pussy” reference on the stump just now.

TRUMP: “In the old days I would have said like you grab your…..now I don’t say that anymore.”

Really going out with bang. pic.twitter.com/MUUtDFYym7

— Keith Edwards (@keithedwards) November 2, 2024

Finally, there was his blow job with the microphone:

He's completely fucking lost it.
How will Fox News explain this away? pic.twitter.com/UvtRgvXf62

— CONVICT TRUMP AGAIN & LOCK THEM UP! (@Christo12919382) November 2, 2024

Today's News: It's FAFO time!

I think we're reaching "Fuck Around and Find Out" time: 

In Canada, Poilievre's blithe "Of course I'm going to cancel programs to fund a GST reduction on new houses" and his equally-blithe "of course I'm not going to get a security clearance" is starting to tank his favourables. 

Today's Ekos study found a drop of 12 points in Conservative voting intentions. They are still ahead of the Liberals, but not by as much as they used to be:

Combine this with Skippy's HORRIBLE favourability numbers we're seeing from other pollsters and... ruh roh.

So much for that big saccharine ad blitz, Pierre.

— David Brown (@OrbitStudios) November 1, 2024

No wonder Poilievre is desperate to get a non-confidence motion passed right away. 

Poilievre likely thought his bright idea to eliminate the GST on middle-class new houses would be a big winner and everybody would start talking about how much money the Cons would save them.

But then the media started asking PP how he would pay for the GST cut and he fumbled out something about how easy-peasy it would be to just cut some Liberal programs.

In a rare press conference, Pierre Poilievre was cornered on his cuts plan.

His answer?

"We're going to cut two programs for sure, and more beyond that."

Here’s what Conservatives will take away from your family:

Affordable childcare that saves a family in Pierre’s riding… pic.twitter.com/p3Kl0RlHxd

— MP Ryan Turnbull 🇨🇦🇺🇦 (@TurnbullWhitby) October 28, 2024

So instead of getting lots of publicity about his GST cut, Poilievre got complaints that he was threatening popular Liberal programs:

Canadian economist Mike Moffatt explains why Poilievre’s new housing GST tax cut on certain homes misses the mark; it cuts new Liberal programs that make those homes possible in the first place. Again, Cons miss the mark and fail.

WATCH ▶️ https://t.co/lAjMO6BcEZ

— Stephano Barberis (@HelloStephano) October 28, 2024