This AI stuff may not work out very well...

Let's see... I have lived through the 1973 oil crisis, the 1980 crisis in the BC forest industry, Black Monday in 1987, the dot com bubble of 2000, the mortgage crash of 2008, the COVID pandemic supply chain disruption of 2020, and those are just the ones I remember. It seems to me that many of these rapid decompression events happened when American and/or Canadian financial and investment gurus started to think they were smarter than the economy writ large, so the "old" economic rules no longer applied to them. 

They were wrong. Ordinary people paid the price.

Now I'm afraid its happening again, with unrealistic hype and ultra-massive investments in AI. The AI bubble has been credited with keeping world stock markets high even in spite of Trump's tariff  shenanigans. 

But I'm reading more about how this AI bubble could pop, and sooner rather than later.

The press probably should have made a bigger deal of the president promising to take the U.S. economy back to the 1800s.

— Sam Youngman (@samyoungman.bsky.social) November 7, 2025 at 2:56 PM

Short answer? Malfeasance! “Harvard economist Jason Furman recently said that AI investments accounted for nearly 92% of U.S. GDP growth in the first half of 2025. Basically, the entire American economy put its eggs in one algorithmic basket.”

— Waylon Jennings-Yutani (@ontopic.bsky.social) November 7, 2025 at 7:02 PM

Today's News: More talk about Poilievre - "he was inevitable and invincible but now he's neither" Plus Sandwich Guy is acquitted

I'll bet Poilievre cannot believe how quickly he has fallen and he can't get up.

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The CBC At Issue panel describes Poilievre's leadership as "toxic" and his supporters as ideological and punitive. I guess the beatings will continue even though morale isn't going to improve.

Today's News: Yes, there's going to be a vote of non-confidence ... against Poilievre

I loved this artwork from Dean Blundell. 

Ostensibly, the d'Entremont floor crossing was about Carney's budget, but in reality it will be Poilievre's leadership that is the most affected.

That time a Canadian Prime Minister turned a budget vote into a non-confidence vote in the Leader of the Opposition. Patterns repeat. Only the players change. The D'Entremont defection wasn't some random event — it was scheduled. The timing lined up perfectly with the release of the budget. One simple act of choreography and suddenly the "government on the brink" story became the "Opposition in disarray" story. An incredible reversal of narrative that came only weeks after the CPC commanded media attention following Poilievre's RCMP fiasco. The Conservatives were already leaking rumours of dissent before the budget was even tabled. Now they're stuck watching their own discipline crack in real time. Meanwhile, the Liberals aren't sweating it. Elizabeth May will back the budget — she's not looking for an election, and the budget policy math is solid. The rest is just arithmetic: one defection, one abstention, one flu case on the Conservative or NDP benches, and the budget holds. And of course the quiet part nobody wants to say out loud: nobody's got money to campaign right now. Not the NDP. Not the CPC. And the Greens? Not even close — and that says nothing about the Canadian public's patience for a Christmas election called not six months from the last. Besides, the ridings are starting to feel what government spending actually looks like and, given the uncertainty of the times, they want it to keep coming. So Carney flipped the script. He turned a confidence vote on the government into a confidence test for Pierre Poilievre himself. It's no longer "Can the Liberals survive?" It's "Can Poilievre keep his caucus from imploding before the budget passes?"

- Northern Variables

Read on Substack

"I crossed the floor because I wanted to build Canada, not knock it down." - Chris d’Entremont, MP. ❤️🍁🇨🇦TEAM CANADA FOREVER🇨🇦🍁❤️ ❤️🍁🇨🇦VIVE LE CANADA 🇨🇦🍁

— 🍁🇨🇦Team Canada Forever🇨🇦🍁 (@teamcanadaforever.bsky.social) November 6, 2025 at 12:35 AM

I don't normally have much time for floor crossers but I have a lot of respect for MP Chris d'Entremont. He was one of the few non-toxic members of Poilievre's Conservatives. He was by far the best speaker in last session's toxic parliament. Good for you Chris. www.politico.com/news/2025/11...

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— Charlie Angus (@charlieangus104.bsky.social) November 4, 2025 at 4:17 PM

Busy Tuesday: Carney budget shows his low-key pizzazz; Democrat Mamdani shows his stuff in New York

I was searching around for some worthwhile comments on the Canadian budget to share tonight, and mostly I found shallow "takes" about d'Entremont crossing the floor and about how dull the budget was. What, from Carney they expected bread and circuses? 

It was low-key pizzazz. really. 

But this summary by CBC business reporter Peter Armstrong was good:

And I did find this good column by Justin Ling: 

Justin Ling / Toronto Star(gift link)

Make no mistake, this is Mark Carney’s Trump budget. It’s also missing one big thing
...The budget, tabled Tuesday, takes Trump’s big beautiful bill head-on with a plan to make Canada a better investment destination than the United States. One part of the plan even has an appropriately Trumpian name: the “Productivity Super-Deduction.”
It may be wonky tax policy, but it is the opening salvo of active economic competition between Canada and America.
....this budget is fundamentally about America and the very strong likelihood that things are going to get worse. Canada has a very short runway to boost productivity, lift up domestic industry, find new trading partners and entice investment before we face the possibility of a much deeper decoupling.
Next year, Washington and Ottawa will meet to talk about our Free Trade Agreement — negotiations that the budget charitably calls “a likely complex review.” Left unsaid is that Trump is determined to force sectoral tariffs into that agreement, meant to protect American manufacturing, and that he may exit the deal if he doesn’t get his way. Either way, the demise of our big, beautiful trade deal could unravel supply chains and drive economic degrowth in a way that we have not seen in quite some time.
With that in mind, every page of this budget fits into the context of this looming threat...
....In many ways, Carney has many of the same objectives as Trump — reboot manufacturing, recapitalize our military, reverse declining productivity, win strategic competition, master new technologies, and so on. Trump wants to achieve these things by shaking down his investors and kneecapping his competitors. We want to do it through playing by the rules.
It’s the right strategy in the long term. Trump’s gangster economics will eventually lose their lustre, and Canada should play the altruistic foil. But in the short term, Trump will probably succeed. And missing from this budget is an acknowledgment of that fact.
As the eternally-cheery Champagne wrapped up his remarks, he offered a bit of analysis that seems at odds with the state of the world. “We’re going to be OK,” he proclaimed. He then repeated it again as he tried to convince the country — and perhaps himself. “We’re going to be OK.”

Today's News: Budget angst, Trump angst, Blue Jay angst

Tuesday is Budget Day
...and Canada can expect a shitshow -- screeds about imaginary taxes, tales of woe, gasps of horror, hand-wringing, pearl-clutching...

The Conservatives' budgetary demands include fiction. There are no "hidden taxes" on food. The industrial carbon price doesn't apply to agriculture. There is no "food packaging tax," and plastic regulations largely exempt food packaging. The clean fuel standard "17¢" was one scenario over time. 1/2

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— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) November 3, 2025 at 8:31 AM

And most egregious of all, nobody is printing money to pay for deficits. Nobody. There isn't even quantitative easing happening as there was during the height of the pandemic, and the Bank of Canada has been on quantitative tightening since. These are all lies that the Liberals just let fester. 2/2

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) November 3, 2025 at 8:31 AM

The Conservatives are never, ever going to support a budget so long as they're the official opposition. Can we please stop this constant hand-wringing about it?

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— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) November 2, 2025 at 9:29 PM

I'm not sure how much actual news we will get about what is actually in the budget; instead, we'll just see endless speculation about whether Carney's minority government will fall.
My prediction? Not a chance. Carney doesn't actually need any NDP votes, he just needs a few abstentions. And he will get them.

Yes, there is crying in baseball! Some good posts about the Jays, and some Sunday Funday posts about Carney, Poilievre, Trump, Vance, Ozymandias, TrumpWatch and Animal Crackers

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Canada is sunk in gloom tonight - it was so close, and everyone wanted it so much. 

But the Blue Jays proved themselves to be Canada's team and we will never forget it. 

Thanks, boys.

In Saskatchewan we call ourselves "Next Year Country" because it helps us to keep believing in the future - now, I hope the Jays will see themselves this way too.
 

Thank you @bluejays for an unforgettable season. You made Canada proud right to the very end. 🇨🇦💙 pic.twitter.com/gJWa7xFnQA

— Canada (@Canada) November 2, 2025

I am reposting this now. Defeat is never fun. But don’t let it obscure the greatness of this team. We came so close at so many points, but this is the nature of the game, of any contest. We shall always be grateful to this squad. https://t.co/FLoMIvZJ9a

— Bob Rae (@BobRae48) November 2, 2025

On to Game 7 - "Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more" #WantItAll

Henry V - to the troops:

Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more
.................show us here
The mettle of your pasture; let us swear
That you are worth your breeding; which I doubt not;
For there is none of you so mean and base,
That hath not noble lustre in your eyes.
I see you stand like greyhounds in the slips,
Straining upon the start. The game's afoot:
Follow your spirit, and upon this charge
Cry 'God for Harry, England, and Saint George!'

Here are the Game 6 lowlights - the Jays had their chances, but it wasn't to be:

Halloween Funnies!

One thing that I notice about Halloween now is that so many adults seem way too involved. 

Other than helping our kids carve their pumpkins, I always felt the whole day should really belong to the kids only.

When I grew up in the 50s, I don't recall dads or moms being involved in Halloween much at all. And when we were parents ourselves, I realized it was the only event of the year that belonged to the kids. So I though it was important that we adults NOT be particularly involved, even feign a detachment from the whole thing. 

We let our kids do most of the work - they came up with their own ideas for the pumpkins and the costumes, though we helped with the scut work and sewing, but under their orders and at their direction. And they did their own trick or treating, even if we lingered behind them on the sidewalk. 

It was all so kids could feel like Halloween was their own celebration, where they could escape into their own world without having to deal with parents' helicoptering supervision, even for just a few hours! 
But that was then and this is now, and now we see adults decorating to the hilt and dressing up themselves too. 

But at least it makes for some funny takes:

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Three down, one to go ⚾ #WantItAll

Carney and Ford said last week that the Jays would win it in 6. 

At the time I thought, well, maybe -- but now, it actually may be!

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Two down, two to go! ⚾#WantItAll

Oh, wasn't it just fine!

After that devastating 18-inning loss on Monday, the Jays came out swinging:

TWO MORE ✌️ #WANTITALL

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— Toronto Blue Jays (Bot) (@bluejaysbot.bsky.social) October 28, 2025 at 10:55 PM

The commentators on TV talked nonstop about what a double threat Otani was - pretty much outlining how unbeatable the Dodgers were. End result- Blue Jays won 6-2.

— pikagirl.bsky.social (@pikagirl.bsky.social) October 28, 2025 at 10:38 PM

The Blue Jays lose one of the most grueling games in World Series history, learn one of their best hitters will be out of the lineup… then beat the Dodgers 6-2 to even the series as if it were nothing. World Series is tied, and it’s going back to Toronto one way or the other.

— Chelsea Janes (@chelseajanes.bsky.social) October 28, 2025 at 9:08 PM

Today's News: White House down; Carney up; and yes, it was another bummer

White House down
I'm seeing some good cartoons and posts about Trump's awful East Wing destruction:

Sunday Funday: Bummed about the game, but here's some good stuff about Canada plus some random laughs, Trump Watch and Animal Crackers

About the game

I am bummed tonight. 

I tell myself that we can't win 'em all. But I wanted to!

If you need a summary of the Saturday game, click here

It started with this great intro shot:

This drone shot flying into the Rogers Centre to start Game 2 🔥

📺: #WorldSeries on FOX pic.twitter.com/h0mD64rKet

— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) October 26, 2025

One down, three to go! ⚾ #WantItAll

What an extraordinary game! 

Here's some good posts:

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Blue Jays dedicate 11-4 blowout to Donald Trump 🇨🇦

— The Beaverton (@thebeaverton.com) October 24, 2025 at 9:29 PM

Today's News: Expectations, meet Reality! Carney v the economy, Poilievre v the RCMP, Trump v America, Reagan v Trump. And Go Jays!

When I scanned the news today, there seemed to be a common theme - that ambitious leaders don't necessarily understand the difficulties of actually putting their ideas into effect.

Yes, some are good ideas, like Carney about the economy, and some are stupid ideas, like Poilievre or Trump about just about everything. But good or bad, they may not be able to get what they want.  They are dealing with expectations that may or may not be achieved in reality. 

Now, good leaders can adjust their ideas to deal with a newly-perceived reality - it is one of the marks of a leader, in fact. 

But stupid leaders will try to twist reality around to match the results they want, regardless of the facts, and then they try to get everyone else on board with their nuttiness - as Catherine O'Hara said in Beetlejuice, "If you don't let me do what I want, I'm going to go crazy and I'll take you with me!" 

Here's what I'm talking about: 

About Carney's speech

Former Liberal party director Jamie Carroll analyzes Carney's immediate problem:
The Line

Jamie Carroll: Carney has a plan. He also has a major problem
Already frustrated young voters need more than promises that the sacrifices to come will eventually pay off.
...Carney still has a major problem that the speech didn’t address. So we have a 10-year plan. What about right now?
By choosing to speak to students, Carney really highlighted — perhaps more so than he intended — that wedge between building for tomorrow and addressing the issues that need addressing right frickin’ now.
Carney is apparently frustrated by the pace of … everything. While the public service is most often the long pole in the tent, a minority government has — and will increasingly be — a contributor to that frustration.
The Liberals lost their chance at a majority in April because Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative party won over voters in the 905 and 519 on issues of crime, affordability and access to housing.
For Carney and the Liberal party, if there’s any chance of getting those voters back, he needs to be able to walk and chew gum at the same time: to wit, he needs to be able to build for tomorrow while addressing those programs and priorities that meet today’s problems, especially for those specific voters.
That, in my opinion, is going to be the hard part of the Carney government: I believe the PM and his team are absolutely capable of delivering on the big-ticket, future-building stuff. It is the bread and butter of people like Carney and his clerk, Michael Sabia (who just finished delivering the first phase of the Montreal REM ahead of schedule and on budget).
But for right now, Carney’s major challenge is keeping people — like his audience last night — satisfied in the interim that any sacrifices they are being asked to make are reasonable and that the end result will be worth it. They need to see costs for housing, groceries, utilities and everything else come down. They need to have jobs when they graduate. And they need to feel safe when they walk the dog at night.
While even I admit that government spending can’t fix everything, cutting spending in that environment is an exercise fraught with risk. ...
Millennials and younger cohorts have been beaten over and over by global events and their faith in government and the global economy is basically non-existent. The idea of sacrifice for a future benefit is a big ask from these folks.
So, to answer the question asked off the top, does Carney regret being the dog that caught the car? Probably not yet, but the mandate is young.

Today's News: Prime Minister Carney's speech - "fortune favours the bold"

On Wednesday night, Carney spoke to the country about what the upcoming Liberal budget will highlight. 

His speech didn't have a lengthy list of specifics but it set out a framework for Canada's future - that its not going to be easy, but we should have confidence that we can maintain what is important in Canada.

Mark Carney has again said Canadians will have to sacrifice to execute his vision to make Canada less dependent on the US, promising to double Canadian non-U.S. exports in the next decade

Here's a wrap on the budget preview speech + what new spending & cuts are to come #cdnpoli pic.twitter.com/RqM4swJ5Ke

— Mackenzie Gray (@Gray_Mackenzie) October 23, 2025