Thursday, September 23, 2004

Kerry and the debates

The presidential debates are set. Its three-- which is an indication that Bush knows he is in serious trouble.
Now, the media meme is all about how terrific Bush is at connecting with the people, and how stiff and wooden and convoluted Kerry is. So count on the major media's "coverage" of the debates to pick Kerry's responses to pieces while applauding Bush for not tripping on the stage.
Remember how Gore actually "won" the first debate - his polls were up -- until the media decided overnight that he had actually lost and so announced it the next day?
The difference this time could be the blogs. Reporters deride them, but they read them -- don't ever think they don't -- and increasingly they take their direction from them.
Now, the right-wing bloggers will be doing their very best to put the positive spin on everything Bush says.
So it is the BOUNDEN DUTY of every good blogger to do the same for Kerry.
Kerry has a better plaform than Bush does, so have no doubt -- he will win these debates. But its crucial that the debates get reported this way.
First and foremost: Edit yourself! Refrain from blogging any policy quibbles and strategy critiques, which would lead reporters to intone things like "Senator Kerry's message tonight got a mixed reaction even from his own supporters.....blah, blah"
Second: Praise Kerry's engaging smile and throw in a mention of basset hound eyes (everybody loves bassets; heartwarming, friendly)
Third: Don't forget to mention Kerry's "commanding" presence and demeanour (tall, dominating, authoritative, etc etc). Bush's least remarked-upon trait is his remarkable resemblance to Mad Magazine's Alfred E Newman, which is getting more pronounced as his hair thins and as Alfred's "What Me Worry?" slogan becomes ever more applicable. The physical contrast with Kerry could not be greater.
Fourth, and very important: Repeat and echo every good Kerry line and phrase. He will have some good zingers, and a lot of thoughtful phrases which may not be delivered as well as they could be. It is every good blogger's duty to make sure they are highlighted.
Gentlemen, start your engines . . .

Wednesday, September 22, 2004

UN bashing

Here's the new RNC talking point -- Iraq is all the UN's fault. Listening to some US news broadcasts tonight about Bush's speech, the tone was that the UN should have helped more and because America had to do it alone, no wonder the troops are having problems and the UN said they would help with the elections but they aren't doing that either.
The New York Times criticizes Bush's speech as self-serving - President Bush's Lead Balloon: "Mr. Bush might have done better at wooing broader international support if he had spent less time on self-justification and scolding and more on praising the importance of international cooperation and a strengthened United Nations. Instead, his tone-deaf speechwriters achieved a perverse kind of alchemy, transforming a golden opportunity into a lead balloon. "
But they don't get it -- Bush didn't go to the UN to get anything done -- he just wanted to begin to establish the new talking point line. And bashing the UN has the side-benefit of undermining Kerry's approach for getting more international support.

Monday, September 20, 2004

"We were misled"

Compare and contrast:
"We were misled" says Dan Rather in MSNBC's story CBS News admits Bush documents can't be verified. The story continues "Rather acknowledged CBS failed to properly determine whether the documents were genuine." -- Sept. 20, 2004
Result: CBS election coverage tainted, credibility lost; RNC delighted with opportunity to try to smear the Kerry campaign. Talk shows hysterical.
"Before the war, the U.S. intelligence community told the president as well as the Congress and the public that Saddam Hussein had stockpiles of chemical and biological weapons and if left unchecked would probably have a nuclear weapon during this decade. Today we know these assessments were wrong." says Senator Pat Roberts, chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee in CNN's story Report slams CIA for Iraq intelligence failures. The story says that intelligence used to support the invasion of Iraq was based on assessments that were "unreasonable and largely unsupported by the available intelligence." -- Friday, July 9, 2004
Result: 1,100 US troops dead, 8,000 wounded; 20,000 Iraqis dead; Iraq infrastructure destroyed; cost of $200 billion and rising; Al Quaida recruiting bonanza. Talk shows hysterical but Rumsfeld, Rice, Cheney all keep their jobs. Tenent retires.
Somehow, there's really no comparison . . .

Sunday, September 19, 2004

Kerry can rally courage in America

The new RNC talking point is that Al Quaida wants Kerry as president. "If you don't vote for Bush, the terrorists will git you!"
Cheney is saying it, so is Hastert. On the talk shows I watched today the republican senators mumbled that they didn't support it, but they weren't exactly ringing in their condemnation of the new line. And the DNC was sputtering about how outrageous an attack this is.
Gee, how unexpected! How out-of-character it is that the Bush campaign would use an outrageous smear against Kerry!
The example which keeps being used is Spain -- its now an established American meme that Al Quaida wanted the Spanish government defeated and the Spanish people were so scared by terrorism that they caved in.
This is, of course, stupid. It was the LYING that doomed the Anzar government. First this government joined the "coalition of the willing" though 90 per cent of Spaniards opposed to the war. The Spanish people never wanted their sons in harms way in Iraq. But the government lied that the troops and everyone else would be safe. Then came the suicide attacks -- and the government LIED AGAIN, saying that it was not its Iraq policy that was to blame, instead immediately trying to blame the Basque separatists . This fiction fell apart within a few days. The Spanish people were so angry that they turned out to vote in record numbers and threw the liars out in disgust.
That said, this "terrorists will win if you vote for Kerry" argument could be powerful in a nation which as frightened and demoralized as the United States is today. Four out of ten are still convinced that Iraq was behind 9/11. And some duct-taped their houses as the beginning of the Iraq War, so convinced were they that an attack by Saddam or Al Quaeda or someone was imminent.
Kerry has to turn his boat into this attack head-on -- just complaining about how unfair this is won't be enough.
He can continue what he is already saying -- that he will be more ferocious and more effective than Bush has been in tracking down Al Quaida directly.
He could add that he won't outsource the war on terror to Pakistan and Indonesia while American soldiers are tied down as the palace guard in Iraq. The likely debacle of the Afganistan elections in October will help, by demonstrating to the American people that the war against the Taliban is still going on. And if Howard loses in Australia, this will dispute the Spain myth. And he could remind people that while Bush was avoiding his flight physical, Kerry was leaping out of his Swiftboat and tracking down the Vietcong who was shooting at his buddies.
He can also rally the courage of the American people. For three years, "be afraid, be very afraid" has been the motto of the Bush administration, because they believe that fearful Americans would not oppose them. Kerry can inspire America to courage, the same way as he rallied his "band of brothers" in Vietnam.

Live show tunes!

I love this -- where else but in New York! Here it is, in full:
"This morning I had the most bizarre subway ride. I board the Number 3 train at Grand Army Plaza after 9 a.m. Find a seat, then settle into reading Henry James for class. I hear a woman’s voice gradually rising in volume. She is preaching the “Lord’s” word to the train car’s sleepy riders. Of course, I had forgotten the headphones for my subway evil sounds blocking device. The train stops and starts. The words denigrating “gay devils” reach my ears. I stand up.
Me: “Excuse me, but do you mind keeping your voice down, I am trying to read.”
Preacher Lady: (screams) “I got to testify.”
Preacher lady hitches up her skirts and tells me that I am going to hell for interrupting you-know-who’s word. Two or three OTHER Christian ladies on the train start shouting at me and discussing my prospects as the Devil’s prison bitch. The last straw was a 50 something red faced man in a suit slamming his Bible towards my face. There was only one thing I could do.
Me: “If you all don’t lower your voices and cease calling me Satan, I will have to sing show tunes.”
The other straphangers look at me with stony faces. I begin to sing. “Its very clear, our love is here to stay. Not for a year, but forever and a day…”
Preacher lady and the Jesus police start mumbling and beseeching G_d to strike me down and boil me in molten tar. (I look better in silver.) The train reaches Wall Street. Confused subway riders check out the scene. I begin swaying and feeling the music. The slamming Bible man looks like he is going to pop a blood vessel. “I cast ye out, Satan.” I go into jazz dance crouch and then spring up to belt out, “THAAAAAAT OLD BLACK MAGIC, HAS ME IN A SPELL…” Bible man has to get off the train as I wriggle and shimmy. “That same old witchcraft when your eyes meet mine!” Bible man exits. SHOW TUNES 1, FUNDAMENTALISTS 0. “So when you walk alone and forlorn, and hear that Cadillac horn remember, love isn’t born, its made…and that’s why every window has a window shade…bad a biddle be bop…” I try to discuss freedom of religion with the ladies, but all attempts at reasonable discourse fail.
By 34th street, the last of the Christian word warriors has left the train. 3 subway riders shake my hand and say, “I have always wanted to tell those idiots to shut up! Bless you.” I am shaking. I don’t know what comes over me at times like this. I only know that I cannot stay silent. I wish that I had my ukulele with me.
At 42nd street, a woman strides into the car and starts PREACHING. The entire car bursts into laughter. I interrupt this new preacher lady and note that she is wearing a flowered straw bonnet.
Me: “Excuse me, Ma’am…but I must warn you that there has been a 12 subway stop donnybrook regarding the unwanted intrusion of religious beliefs into our morning commutes.”
Preacher Lady 2: “I got freedom of speech! And GOD TELLS ME THAT THE GAY DEVILS ARE CONTROLLING NEW YORK.”
Me: (standing up) “If you do not cease and desist fouling the air with homophobia, I must sing…SHOW TUNES.” There are now 3 or 4 gay men on the train. They start laughing.
Preacher Lady 2: “The Lawd says you are going to …” (litany of punishments that would be fun with the right person).
Me: (sings) “The Girl that I marry will have to be, as soft and as sweet as a nursery… the girl I call my own, will wear diamonds and laces and smell of cologne…” One of the boys on the train starts to harmonize. Preacher Lady 2 makes her way down the car, pointing and exclaiming, “I have met the devil right here!”
Me: (sings) “Whatever Lola wants, Lola gets…” Dancing around the subway poles and doing my best Gwen Verdon kicks, I feel the spirit in me. I close with “Pennies from Heaven” and make sure to get the Jazz Hands in for good measure. As Preacher Lady 2 runs to the next car at 72nd Street, the doors open, a perfect end of song button for my gay pointing gesture. The subway riders break into applause and I bow. Rock on.Several straphangers whisper, Happy New Year to me in Hebrew. An Orthodox lady hands me an orange. I don't know if I should laugh or cry."

Battlegrounds

The state polls are being released now and the battleground state polls show its neck and neck -- MSNBC - Kerry making scant progress in crucial states Its worth noting that these were "likely voter" polls of 625 people in each state.
But wasn't this the election that George Bush was supposed to win hands down? He was, for three years, the "popular wartime president" according to the media. The republican machine was unmatched in its ruthlessness, precision, professionalism. Karl Rove was a genuis, no doubt about it. Bush was such a likeable guy, everybody loved him.
Well, meet John Kerry, everybody.
I've been saying for three years that the democrats have to win the Gore states plus two -- but plus one would be enough. As Kerry battles for these states, he is getting energized, more focused. Will it be enough? If Kerry continues the kind of campaigning he has been doing over the last week, and if the democrats get their vote out, it will be.

Friday, September 17, 2004

Bush Lied and Soldiers Died

The NYT is still trying manfully to toe the party line on WMDs -- Weapons Inspectors: Iraq Study Finds Desire for Arms, but Not Capacity But it doesn't matter anymore -- after a thousand deaths and 7,000 injuries (or maybe twice that, really) -- America doesn't care anymore what a delusional Saddam might have wanted to do at some mythical future time. This NYT story is a meaningless bleat in the roar of outrage building over the July National Intelligence Estimate.
This report has, I think, hit the average American like a bomb - a Witness to Mass Delusion, so to speak. People like me had been saying for months (I said it in June, actually) that the United States is losing in Iraq. But the so-called average American doesn't read little-ole-me, or other blogs like me. A goodly proportion of good people, including a lot of the news media and the pundits, went merrily along through the summer under the vague impression that basically things were improving in Iraq except for a few bad areas.
Over the last week, this impression began to change as a few generals began speaking out. Uneasiness was growing, a feeling that Iraq was turning to the worse.
Then, yesterday, everybody finds out about the NIE report -- its not just bad news from a nattering nabob of negativism, a democrat, a leftie, a blogger. Its the National Security Council, official government policy.
And not only are Americans now finding out that they are losing in Iraq, they're also realizing that the Bush administration knew six weeks ago that Iraq was a disaster, but Bush didn't tell them. They heard nothing but upbeat, happy talk from him about Iraq all through August, all through the convention, all through September, while more than 100 American soldiers died -- and he did NOTHING to change it. Hey, don't bother me, I'm too busy making jokes about Kerry and getting teary-eyed about 9/11!
Suddenly, the basic truth of the Buzzflash slogan, Bush Lied and Soldiers Died, has become obvious to America.
Tonight, Hardball actually stopped talking about the CBS memos to interview Richard Holdbrook about Iraq and the NIE. Lou Dobbs stopped talking about outsourcing jobs to interview Evan Bayh about Iraq and the NIE. Yesterday Judy Woodruff stopped covering Hurricane Ivan to interview General McPeakabout Iraq and the NIE - "I've commanded troops in combat. The least he could do is level with the troops here, let alone coming clean with the American people. This is a wall-to-wall disaster that the president has engineered our way into here. And we simply have to get rid of this administration and get started on fixing it."
The outrage is sincere, and meaningful In the NYT, Bob Herbert tracks down the last American soldier who died for America's last mistaken war. "Wars are all about chaos and catastrophes, death and suffering, and lifelong grief, which is why you should go to war only when it's absolutely unavoidable. Wars tear families apart as surely as they tear apart the flesh of those killed and wounded. Since we learned nothing from Vietnam, we are doomed to repeat its agony, this time in horrifying slow-motion in Iraq. . . When the newscaster David Brinkley, appalled by the carnage in Vietnam, asked Lyndon Johnson why he didn't just bring the troops home, Johnson replied, "I'm not going to be the first American president to lose a war." George W. Bush is now trapped as tightly in Iraq as Johnson was in Vietnam. The war is going badly. The president's own intelligence estimates are pessimistic. There is no plan to actually win the war in Iraq, and no willingness to concede defeat. I wonder who the last man or woman will be to die for this colossal mistake."

Tuesday, September 14, 2004

Turnaround time

Kerry Asserts Bush Has Misled Voters
You've got it, JFK -- this is the heart of the matter. And Bush cannot defend himself because he lies all the time, about just about everything.
This brilliant Buzzflash editorial got it right "The only way to win against the right wing thugs who stole the American government is to cream them, rip off their masks and put them on the defensive through Election Day."
Exactly.
The Kerry campaign has got the message. They're running with it, and they're winning with it. I base my opinion partly on the actual polls but also on my "gonzo journalism" meter.
Gonzo stories are stupid, meaningless stories which the Bush campaign plants - like this one Kerry drops ball with packers fans. It reminds me of the "Whiz With" story in early August. They're a sign of desperation, when the Bush campaign knows it is in trouble, trying to go on the offensive but with no ammunition.

Christians One; Lions Nothing

Bumper Sticker Insubordination - A Kerry fan gets fired, and then hired, for her politics John Kerry, solving America's unemployment problem one job at a time. No wonder Bush is going to lose and Kerry is going to win.

Monday, September 13, 2004

How many would have lived?

It bears repeating:
How many hundreds of US soldiers and POWs would have been saved if Nixon had listened to Kerry in 1971 and declared a ceasefire then, instead of waiting two years to declare it?

When is a "winter soldier" not a "winter soldier"?

When a Google search for "winter soldier" brings you to this site -- flying monkey veterans against Kerry -- instead of this one --the actual Winter Soldier Investigation.
Its really bizarre -- they're trying to hijack history, it appears. The Free Republic Network is sponsoring their site, which is pretty elaborate. For seasoning, it also has "Jane Fonda" sprinkled all over it -- apparently she is the wicked witch of the east, as far as vietnam vets are concerned.
Anyway, this anti-Kerry group is headed up by a man named Larry Bailey. They held a rally in Washington this weekend at which they expected thousands but got hundreds.
What is really priceless, however, is that this same Larry Bailey has spent his career uncovering fraudlent Navy SEALs -- people who claim to be SEAL veterans when they are not. So I wonder what he thinks of the news that Bush puffed up his military service by claiming he served in the US Air Force, and may not even have fulfilled his TANG commitments (thanks to Atrios for some of these links.)
Now, I know everyone is always supposed to be so respectful of soldiers, and not call them wingnuts, but really, folks, we're supposed to believe that these grandfathers had their entire lives blighted because of John Kerry's dastardly testimony 35 years ago? I'll bet Kerry wishes he actually had been so influential in 1971 -- then maybe Nixon would have ordered the ceasefire that Kerry wanted -- and how many soldiers and POWs would have been saved if the war had ended then instead of with a mad scramble off the embassy roof four years later?

Sunday, September 12, 2004

Check these out

A wonderful post on Daily Kos -- read all the comments. Its about how people are working so hard at their local level to get Kerry elected. The US and Canadian systems are so different -- I hadn't realized how difficult it was in the US to get organized at the local level. In Canada, with a parliamentary system, the first place parties get organized is at the local constituency level, because the party doesn't win unless they get a majority of members elected.
And a terrific post on Donkey Rising about the lessons Dems should learn from the swiftboat thing -- not necessarily the conventional wisdom -- "Republicans have significantly damaged their image and reputation among many moderates and opinion leaders by embracing an essentially dishonest, "win at any cost" approach during this campaign. This tarnished reputation is an asset democrats should energetically exploit. Not only does it reduce the appeal and legitimacy of Republicanism in general, but it makes it easier for Dems to successfully deflect future smear campaigns."
And James Carville was great tonight on Russert -- articulate, quick, passionate about Kerry, and labeling republican talking point BS for what it was. He identified precisely the problem now in Iraq -- it's changing so fast that a plan of one or two months ago isn't the right position today. He also emphasized something I have also been blogging about today in comments on other blogs -- that its a republican talking point to demand Kerry has to have a detailed position on Iraq, because the same folks are not demanding that Bush also specify what HE would do. And Carville sent the message to the republicans to watch out for the debates, implying that that is when Kerry will hit Bush hard on the whole Iraq mess.

Friday, September 10, 2004

How many deaths will it take 'til we know

that too many people have died

September and October

So, what is coming up for September and October that will affect the election?
1. A bunch of new smear campaigns will be started about Kerry (movies, ads). And so you can count on the media parroting the RNC talking points and following the RNC agenda which gets them to interview another bunch of unnamed democrats about how Kerry "must respond to these serious accusations" and how Kerry "must talk about his policies" and "Kerry must present a clear position on ___", as if he hasn't already done all this and more.
But also coming up will be:
2. Election in Australia -- Howard will lose and the Aussie troops are out
3. Election in Afganistan -- what are the chances that this will be successful? If it is held at all, suicide bombers will blast the polling stations.
4. Another 100 US troops will die in Iraq, another thousand will be injured. More cities will be lost to the insurgents.
5. The Kelly book will ignite the Bush cocaine/drinking stories.
6. Farenheit 9/11 will be released on video. New round of ads, coverage, etc.
7. Boston might be in another pennant race. The New England Patriots might be doing well, too.
8. In the vice-presidential debate, Edwards will wipe the floor with Cheney. In the presidential debates, who knows what might happen . . . but if Kerry embraces his "inner Munster", he will come off as genuine and caring, which is the only thing that is important about these debates.
Have I missed anything?