Tuesday, December 06, 2005

One week 

Its the end of the first week, and the polls show a bit of movement:

From Politics Canada

After the 2004 election, I thought Gilles Duceppe and the Bloc would prop up the Liberals as long as they could, with Duceppe realizing that only Quebec anger over the sponsorship scandal had enabled them to elect 54 Bloc members to Parliament. However, I wonder if the recent Parti Quebecoise leadership race went to his head. Inspired by the leadership convention hoopla -- the exciting speeches, the cheering and flag-waving, the whole streamers-and-balloons atmosphere -- its easy to get carried away and start thinking your pary is on a roll. But sponsorship scandal aside, I don't think separatism is building steam in Quebec.
My prediction in 2004 was that the Bloc would be back down to 25 seats this election, and I haven't seen anything yet that would make me change my mind -- particularly if Duceppe continues to make the mistake of turning this into a pseudo-sovreignty referendum. Scott of Montreal notes that the Harper Conservatives aren't generating any traction in Quebec, and apparently aren't interested in doing so. About the Liberals, Scott says "we'll just have to see if Quebeckers' feelings are still as hurt next month as they were in 2004." I would doubt it, particularly when the Liberals will be making the case that a vote for the Bloc is a vote for separation. Quebecers may well join with Ontario on the one thing that both provinces usually agree on -- voting Liberal.

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