Sunday, December 17, 2023

Israel-Hamas War Update: what happens next?

I know Seymour Hersch has his flaws - a tendency toward grandiosity in his reporting -- but he has good sources and his column last night raises some good questions about the Israel-Hamas War that undoubtedly will dominate international discussions over the next weeks:
Thousands of Hamas fighters are now facing a deadly shootout with the Israeli army as the disastrous war their leaders triggered is in its tenth week. Now out of their tunnels, those men are trying to cope with the increasing winter chill and heavy rains. There is little shelter for them, or for the bedraggled surviving citizens of Gaza, from the elements and from Israeli bullets and bombs.
War is hell, too, for Israeli troops, who are on the hunt, now engaged in house-to-house and rubble-to-rubble searches for Hamas fighters, who will be far more willing to engage in one-on-one shootouts in the south of Gaza than in the earlier days of mass bombing in Gaza City. Future historians will make their judgment on the stunning ratio of dead Palestinians in Gaza to the Israeli combat dead. Israel’s military leaders now assess that the majority of Hamas fighters will be dead, will be captured, or will have deserted by the end of January. But then what? If the religious zealots who now dominate the government headed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have a day-after plan, it is not known.
At least they're talking tonight about another ceasefire and hostage release: And I may be wrong, or maybe I'm just thinking wishfully, but perhaps the virulent reactions we've seen around the world since Oct 7 -- whether anti-Israel or anti-Palestine -- are starting to moderate somewhat as we learn more about what happened Oct 7 and since, both to Israelis and to Palestinians.
Robert Reich publishes an interesting substack this week about how his university students achieved some consensus through discussion on moral principles in spite of their pro-Palestinian and pro-Israeli beliefs - Finding moral clarity on campus about the Hamas-Israeli War:
Last weekend, I met with a group of students to talk about what’s happening in Israel and Gaza. Some were Jewish, some were Palestinian, one was Israeli, some were from other nations in the Middle East.
The purpose of the meeting was to see what they could agree on, morally.
As you can imagine, emotions ran high.
I suggested that, at least for the purpose of our conversation, they not think of themselves as either “Pro-Palestinian” or “Pro-Israel” but instead look deeper into what basic moral principles were at stake.
...After several hours, they agreed to seven moral principles...
1. What Hamas did on October 7 was morally despicable...
2. Hamas’s avowed aim to murder all Jews is morally despicable...
3. What the Israeli government has done since then in Gaza is also morally despicable...
4. The murder or kidnapping of innocent civilians is morally wrong...
5. Israel’s policies toward Palestinians have been segregation and discrimination, based on ethnicity and religion, which are morally wrong...
6. It is morally wrong to urge genocide against any group — whether they constitute a religion, ethnicity, race, or nation...
7. All of us have a moral obligation to do everything within our power to prevent and stop all forms of genocide, all killing of innocent civilians, and the promotion of hate.
That's a good start, I think. 
But that said, there are increased worries now that conflict will spread:
I think Biden and Trudeau and the leaders of the Commonwealth and of the EU are all working to prevent a broader war from erupting -- Trudeau spoke this week about a "sustainable" ceasefire, and released a joint statement with Australia and New Zealand in which he described the kind of ceasefire Canada wants: 
...We want to see this pause resumed and support urgent international efforts towards a sustainable ceasefire. This cannot be one-sided. Hamas must release all hostages, stop using Palestinian civilians as human shields, and lay down its arms. 
There is no role for Hamas in the future governance of Gaza...


lungta said...

Betahbulot Ta’aseh Milhama -בתחבולות תעשה לך מלחמה .
the "war" is more a prison riot than a war.
"Defend one-self" needs a real physical "threat" not a carpet bomb just in case preventative.
In every conflict ever waged 9/10 casualties are civilian...mostly because the military has the guns and travels in pacts and has permission to shoot.
If his information was true and valid it would be considered a threat to security and censored or eliminated.
Distraction and misdirection are all you will ever be allowed to "see"

Cathie from Canada said...

Thanks for the comment, lungta.
The tragedies of this war on both sides will fuel continuing hostilities for generations to come.

Trailblazer said...

With Hamas calling itself the 'party of god' and Israel declaring itself the chosen people , a solution will be difficult to find.

The solution must be found in the middle east and not in the halls of Congress USA.


e.a.f. said...

What happens next? Most likely nothing and the fighting will continue. Hamas started this dance by invading Israel, killing citizens, and kidnapping others. Israel isn't going to stop until they have extracted revenge and/or Hamas gives up the fight (unlikely to happen--Hamas leadership has made billions off the situation over the decades). Hamas and other organizations have worked hard in the past few decades to get "their message" out successfully. We have to look no further than the 3 American University Presidents and various supporting protests at Canadian Universities.

Some in Israel will not give up the fight. They see it as, you fight or you die. This weekend was watching t.v. and up popped pictures of Holocaust survivors or Holocaust victims shortly before their death. If you want to uunderstand the war, you need to understand what happened during WW II and prior. Remember when Jews tried to flee Germany prior to the way, neither Canada nor the U.S.A. was willing to accept the ship of refugees. They returned to Germany and most died there. Anti Jewish sentiment has been around for a coouple of thousand years. Its not going anywhere. Jews know what can happen when you do not defend yourself. Israel was created after WW II, most likely out of guilt over what transpired during the war.

Israel has developed a very successful country. Until Bibbi came along things were going along, if not well, survivable with some hope. 700K "settlers moving into the West Bank simply isn't acceptable. They need to leave and move back to Israel. It is interesting most of the settlers are of American origin.

For a better future for the area, Bibbi needs to step down and perhaps he, Trump, Putin, Kimmy 3 can get a room somewhere. The settlers need to move out of the West Bank. Hamas leadership sitting in Quatar with all their billions need to give back the money and it can be used to provide a decent water system in Gaza. (12% of children in Gaza die from dirty water and that was before this war. The Hamas leadership stole all that money)
Elections supervised by the U.N. or some other organization needs to take place in Gaza. No Hamas members get to run for office. Then the rich Arab states can help rebuild Gaza.

If not much happens, then we will still be at war in the region for another 70 or more years. This isn't going to go away until Israel feels its going to be safe. If you have a good look at the survivors of the Holocaust you'll know why. As they said after WW II, Never Again. My Mom used to say, It Can Always Happen Again. These days its almost fashionable to be pro Palestinian and anti Jewish/Israeli.

When Canada, Australia, N.Z. signed onto their "statement", the first thing that went through my mind was, not surprising. All three countries have Indigenous peoples who have been treated very badly and descriminated against. Didn't expect much different from what the statement said. Hating doesn't stop in this world. Just have a look at the various ethnic cleansings we have in the world. Israel decided they were not going to be victims anymore.

Cathie from Canada said...

In a tweet thread today,
David Frum said the UN and other Arab countries will likely not be helping Gaza rebuild this time, because Hamas previously just used aid money to build more tunnels and terror infrastructure. Where Gazans will work in the future is also a serious problem - what other countries will step up to give work permits, sponsor emigration, etc?

QR Code Generator said...

David Frum said the UN and other Arab countries will likely not be helping Gaza rebuild this time, because Hamas previously just used aid money to build more tunnels and terror infrastructure. Where Gazans will work in the future is also a serious problem - what other countries will step up to give work permits, sponsor emigration, etc?