I got a chuckle out of Evan Scrimshaw's lead in his Substack yesterday: Abacus' Conservative Curveball Is There Life In The Liberals?:
It is a notable statement that being down 10 is a victory these days for the Liberals, but Abacus has the Tory lead down 9 poll to poll, so it is actually good news for a government that’s needed it for a while. It’s of course not the same thing as saying that the government is in good shape – a government that’s happy to be at 26% in Nanos and 27% in Abacus because the trendlines are good is not a government that is in a good spot in an absolute sense. Nor does any of this mean that Poilievre giving up more and more of his lead is an evitability.But it is a decent endorsement of the idea that Poilievre will not be able to be a dogshit political leader and still win easily. Yes, the Liberals are troubled, yes the economy is bad, and yes the Liberals need a rate cut or 5 before the election. But there’s been an air of inevitability about the Tories imminent victory that hasn’t sat right, as if the election had already been won and lost, and all that needed to happen was the results to be relayed to the masses.
And today this was happening:
Abacus' last poll only two weeks ago? CPC +19— Polling Canada (@CanadianPolling) December 13, 2023
Now CPC +10 https://t.co/6R6vTleRmZ
Good Day to all progressives. Today we get to watch CPC MPs scrambling madly to walk back every vote, everything they said, everything they did over the past several days.— Mike Morris (@1MikeMorris) December 14, 2023
We also get to watch their supporters lose their minds over a possible fall in poll support for Poilievre.
Poilievre thought his polls were so good he could get away with anything he wanted. Like dissing Ukraine and calling it a "far-away foreign land".
#JustinTrudeau: "Let's be clear, this Conservative leader has no long-term vision for this country with or without glasses. It takes more than a couple of bags of McDonald's to feed Canadians." #cdnpoli #QP— RF 🇺🇦 (@dipbrat70) December 13, 2023
How did Pierre Poilievre get this so wrong? The Conservative Party would be nothing without western Canada. Western Canada would be nothing without Ukrainian immigrants. It's unimaginable that Conservatives would let Pierre Poilievre turn his back on Ukraine. https://t.co/bZPGASz6Le pic.twitter.com/rM6sHkNypL— Karl Tous (@KarlTous) December 14, 2023