Today's News: Freaking Out about the Presidential Polls

 

https://www.270towin.com/mp

Three weeks to go and the Presidential polls are freaking everyone out:

If you are noticing that the only national polls Trump is leading in are the ones taken by a single far-right polling outfit known to be run by a Trumpist you are reading this image correctly pic.twitter.com/Y810f4z1rv

— Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) October 13, 2024

Cannot stress enough that Rs would not be dropping dozens of polls into the battlegrounds to move the polling averages if they thought they were winning.

Harris leads by 4 in PA in new NYT poll. More red wave polls there than any other state. https://t.co/YruOCllTBx

— Simon Rosenberg (@SimonWDC) October 12, 2024

With three weeks to go we should note that Rs have dropped more than 60 polls into the polling averages over the last few weeks to red wave 2024.

The only reason they would be doing that is that if they though they were losing. https://t.co/p0AwV6wH6v

— Simon Rosenberg (@SimonWDC) October 14, 2024

More desperate, losing candidate vibes from Trump: 6/https://t.co/tgZXEWHH4z

— Simon Rosenberg (@SimonWDC) October 12, 2024

"Hurricane Sharpie Land"

i am convinced they are showing him photoshopped polls that he can win NY state because he wants to win NY, this is hurricane sharpie land

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— Shiv Ramdas (@nameshiv.bsky.social) October 11, 2024 at 8:03 AM

Why is this happening? 

So that, on Nov 6, irregardless of the vote totals, Trump can announce he won the election and "prove" this by claiming the polls showed he would win, so Harris must be trying to steal the election just like Biden did:

  

.@neal_katyal: “There is a coming massive crisis that’s going to occur on November 5th… even if Kamala Harris wins the election, the Trump team is going to declare victory with JD Vance at his side." pic.twitter.com/siFBIAz1Oz

— Inside with Jen Psaki (@InsideWithPsaki) October 13, 2024

For more info about polling: 

From Talking Points Memo, Josh Marshall describes how pollsters "herd" together: 

Miscellaneous Thoughts About Polling 

From the New York Times, an article about "weighting on recalled vote": 

How one polling decision is leading to two distinct stories about the election 

From The American Prospect, an article about how presidential polls in history have never been right:

The Polling Imperilment  Presidential polls are no more reliable than they were a century ago. So why do they consume our political lives?