Sunday, March 13, 2022

Today's News: Stepping on a Lego

I found this image on twitter -- and anyone who has ever stepped barefoot on a lego knows what will happen next:

Many stories tonight projecting Russia's ultimate defeat - provided Ukraine can hang on long enough and the arms keep flowing from Canada, the US and Europe. Cities are just being hammered, and Russia is committing war crimes every day. But here is an excellent article by Bush apologist/ international relations expert Francis Fukuyama: 
Russia is heading for an outright defeat in Ukraine. Russian planning was incompetent, based on a flawed assumption that Ukrainians were favorable to Russia and that their military would collapse immediately following an invasion. Russian soldiers were evidently carrying dress uniforms for their victory parade in Kyiv rather than extra ammo and rations. Putin at this point has committed the bulk of his entire military to this operation—there are no vast reserves of forces he can call up to add to the battle. 
Russian troops are stuck outside various Ukrainian cities where they face huge supply problems and constant Ukrainian attacks. The collapse of their position could be sudden and catastrophic, rather than happening slowly through a war of attrition. The army in the field will reach a point where it can neither be supplied nor withdrawn, and morale will vaporize. 
From CNN:
This whole 25-tweet thread is worth checking but here is the main map showing the situation March 11: Here is an interesting analysis of the Kyiv situation: Another lengthy thread on why Russia's army is not winning: I don't know whether this story is true or not, but it SHOULD be true! I've been seeing so many pictures from Ukraine and here are the ones that affected me the most. 
This used to be a pleasant street: These little angel wings!


This is beautiful:

Finally, this:
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Saturday, March 12, 2022

Today's News: Let's call that hope

Some discouragement in the Russia Ukraine War today, but lets start with some beautiful things:
British Poet Laureate Simon Armitage has written a poem about this war: "Its war again. 
An air-raid siren can't fully mute the cathedral bells. 
Let's call that hope." 
My heart: Journalist Laura Rosen tweets about an interview with military analyst Michael Kofman about what went wrong: Here's some other interesting analyses today: (On a side note, isn't it too bad now that Canada doesn't have any way to organize its international grain sales this fall - a "Canadian Wheat Board", if you will - to help the world out of the coming shortages. What a concept! But I digress...) The more "DO SOMETHING!" hysteria I see, the more I realize what a difficult path Biden and Trudeau and NATO are trying to take here. Its been  2+ weeks since Russia invaded and honestly some of the reaction is reminding me of how we first reacted to Covid two years ato -- a sincere though naive desire to FINISH THIS NOW so we can declare it OVER! This, combined with increasing anger that the powers that be aren't wrapping this up; cynical reactions of "that'll never work!" and "they ain't doing it right!" to everything the West is doing; combined now with justifiable demonization of Putin, who could well be history's greatest monster. 
Here is a couple of negative reactions toward everything NATO is doing for Ukraine: This morning Biden apparently made some remarks warning Russia against trying any chemical or biological warfare false-flag attacks: And this immediately ratchetted up the war drumbeats here in the West to the point that Biden had to clamp it down severely this afternoon: Thus provoking more angry reaction from people who want more done: Maybe Vindman is right - he's certainly more expert than I am. But damn it, I don't want World War 3 to start over this either! I read a very interesting commentary sorting out some of these points by Markos at Daily Kos today:
The argument for doing more is predicated on the civilian carnage we’re seeing in Ukraine. Putin must be stopped, it is argued, to save civilian deaths. 
However, a wider war doesn’t mean fewer civilian deaths, it means more. 
If Russia’s modus operandi is to bombard its foes into submission, what makes anyone think that Russian bombs and missiles would stop falling on population centers? What’s more likely is that they’ll start falling on more population centers. 
Suddenly, capital cities like Warsaw, Vilnius, Riga, Tallin, Bucharest, and Sofia would be in range of Russia-based missile systems, and many more in range via Russian naval and strategic air assets in the Mediterranean, North, and Baltic seas. And that’s not including the Belorussian and Russian civilians who would die on the other side of the line (in case anyone cares). Even if we take nuclear weapons off the table, what’s stopping a desperate Putin from dropping chemical weapons on population centers across the region? 
Are we willing to put tens of millions of new civilians at risk, to feel better about the millions currently at risk? I know this sounds heartless, and especially so to those currently trapped in Russia’s line of fire. But adding a broader international profile to the casualty list doesn’t bring back the victims of Russian aggression. It just adds to them. 
We are doing a lot. We’ve armed Ukraine with modern weapons systems that have allowed it to fight a vastly superior enemy to a standstill. It is that effectiveness that has unleashed death on Ukrainian civilians. Ironically, if “saving civilians” was really the moral imperative, we never should’ve armed Ukraine. 
But of course, that’s not what we’re all fighting for. We’re fighting for freedom and democracy and the right of self-determination, and Ukrainians knew the stakes, and they decided to fight. Our job is to support them in that fight, and make sure they get the most effective equipment for the job. (So not fighter jets, because they’re difficult to maintain and easy to destroy, but new air defense systems that can reach higher altitudes than the man-portable ones currently used so effectively by Ukrainian forces, to name one example.) 
It’s okay to be frustrated and want there to be more to do. But remember, actions have consequences, and in this case, additional civilian deaths. And so we need to manage the situation as carefully as President Joe Biden has thus far. 
Now on to some Canadian stuff:
With the CPC leadership campaign is starting up, here's some good advice that I really hope the party ignores -- because I hope the Liberals can continue their string of victories over the Conservatives and if the Cons select an experienced leader who won't knuckle under to knuckle-draggers this time, then Trudeau will likely have a real fight on his hands to keep those suburban Toronto and Quebec ridings that the Liberals need to maintain their government:
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Friday, March 11, 2022

Today's News: Hunkering Down

When you're waiting at a pile of sandbags for an invading army, why not just play some music?  

I get the impression today that we are realizing there may not be a quick end to the Russia Ukraine War - the easy answer of a No Fly Zone is not happening, and it wasn't an easy answer anyway.  The Russians aren't advancing much but they're not retreating either. So it will grind on. 
It will, I believe, now depend on whether Ukraine can keep holding on as arms deliveries from the West increase but as daily life for Ukrainians becomes more and more difficult. Food and medicines, for one thing -- if there are going to be any trucker convoys in Europe, then maybe they should be focusing on how to deliver food and supplies to Ukraine cities.
And while I am no supporter of No Fly Zones, but maybe those food convoys could be protected from attack on Ukraine highways by Western airpower - a type of "defensive corridor" NFZ, if you will.
But I digress.  For today, here is the map from ISW - virtually the same map as yesterday:
And from their daily report:
The likelihood is increasing that Ukrainian forces could fight to a standstill the Russian ground forces attempting to encircle and take Kyiv. Russian forces also appear to be largely stalemated around Kharkiv and distracted from efforts to seize that city. Russian advances in the south around Mykolayiv and toward Zaporizhya and in the east around Donetsk and Luhansk made little progress as well in the last 24 hours. Russia likely retains much greater combat power in the south and east and will probably renew more effective offensive operations in the coming days, but the effective reach and speed of such operations is questionable given the general performance of the Russian military to date.
Seth Abramson released his major article tonight and it is excellent though depressing read - his basic thesis is that the West is already fighting World War Three (aka Cold War Two) against Putin, and the war won't stop until Putin is dead or deposed. 
Best to read it for yourself:
His 10 truths will be difficult for us all.
Here's another interesting article that might help explain why Ukraine is able to fight so well now: Another interesting thread: And several news reports today: I still get the impression that some people under 40 aren't getting it yet: Some funnier stuff:







And because yesterday was International Women's Day: Here's a fascinating story: Here's a little language lesson:
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Thursday, March 10, 2022

Today's News: Threading the Needle

Undeniably, the coming days and weeks of the Ukraine Russia War will prove to be the most important challenge in world history since Operation Overlord in 1944. 
The West is trying to save Ukraine without declaring war on Russia. 
That is a difficult needle to thread, and it will get harder as the weeks go by. 
I suspect that's mainly why Trudeau, Anand, Freeland and Joly went to Europe this week, to communicate directly with European leaders and strategize for how the West can protect democracy and defeat Putin without embroiling the world in Armageddon. As usual, the National Post just can't stand it. 
They really hated hearing about how popular Trudeau is in Europe -- 45 minutes with the Queen! Cheers in Latvia! and in Berlin! So they have been trying to re-cast the trip as just another Trudeau photo opportunity (I refuse to link to their so-called "opinion" pieces). 
And then of course here comes the CBC, trolling obediently behind, sniping about the "taxpayer dime" when the world is facing World War 3. 
This is CBC reporter Travis Dhanraj's whiney tweet this morning, trying to justify his cringe-worthy question to Freeland and Joly - a question that was ratioed so unmercifully that he finally had to follow it with a mealy-mouthed sort-of apology: And when you've lost Robin Urback.... Getting back to the real world -- the war -- it was a hard, sad day. The destruction of a Ukraine hospital dominated the news, and the stories from refugees are incredible, in both good ways and bad: When we look back on that phone call between Trump and Zelenskiy, it seems like it was from another, safer world: Again today -- because people are wringing their hands and can't think of anything else to do -- we keep hearing the No-Fly-Zone-NOW! drumbeat. 
Once again the US and NATO have had to respond that it is both unnecessary, and dangerous: I was glad to see China is starting to acknowledge that this is endangering us all: Finally, something a little humorous:
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Wednesday, March 09, 2022

Today's News: Maybe Russia could just declare victory and leave?

I was all excited earlier today when it looked as though Poland and the US had an airplane deal worked out. 
But that doesn't seem to be the case tonight. 
One thing is certain: Biden will do what he can to stop Putin's war of aggression, but he will not be stampeded into actions that could backfire on the security of the west. 
Which means the No Fly Zone continues to be a non-starter - and finally today, I didn't see as many people chattering like the NFZ was the only possible military tactic whose success would be instantaneous, guaranteed, and innocuous.  
In the meantime, the enormous volume of arms deliveries continue:
NATO is not fucking around either: Russia is not winning: Gas prices are rising in the US and I think Biden is rightly concerned that the economic pain will dampen US support for Russian sanctions and other support for Ukraine if the war grinds on. There was news today that Biden has tried to talk to Saudi Arabia about increasing oil production but Saudi Arabia brushed him off. Bad idea: And on a side note, here's a great thread about how Americans can deal with higher gas prices: One thing that worries me about Putin is his ego may not let him give up irregardless of what damage Russia is enduring: But there was also other news today of hints from Zelenskiy that the war could end if Putin would settle for keeping the break-away regions he already has - basically, declare victory and leave. 
This might be a deal that both the Ukraine and Putin could live with: Here in Canada, Jason Kenny's contribution to the international relations discussion during such a fraught time ---- is to whine about how mean everyone is to poor poor Alberta: Finally, here's one tweet that really startled me today -- basically, its been a hell of a winter for all of us:
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Tuesday, March 08, 2022

Today's News: Poetry of a sort

There's a lot of news and tweets about the Ukraine-Russia War, so I am now following three Twitter Lists: 
From The Horse Whisperer: Ukraine Coverage 
I think maybe the war is going better for Ukraine now. 
They're getting some of the help they need:
I don't know if we can conclude quite yet that Russia is losing. But today, they ain't winning: I'm reading more analysis tonight and I don't think my optimism for Ukraine's success is just a dead cat bounce: Here is this, for International Women's Day - I don't think these women are going to be interested in helping Russia pretend to win the war: And I am even finding today some poetical moments of hope: And another great Rae tweet -- that Lavrov statement was utterly bizarre: And finally, this is just so great:
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Monday, March 07, 2022

Today's News: Return of the Red Phone

Our son asked me yesterday what it was like to live in the time of the Cold War.
That's when I realized that for him, the threat of nuclear annihilation was ancient history. 
Our children didn't have to grow up like we did, in a world undergirded by terror, one where everyone's life and future were predicated on the hope that neither the American President nor the Russian Premier would go crazy and take the world with them.
They had a Red Phone, you see. 
It was for the leaders of US and Russia to talk to each other directly, whenever there was such high international tension that it risked nuclear war, so tempers could cool down and wiser heads prevail. They set up the Red Phone after the Cuban Missile Crisis with the idea that Cold War should never again get so hot   And apparently the next 30 years were less risky, though there were other close calls that we knew little or nothing about at the time. 
For more than 45 years, from 1945 to 1991, just about every element of world international relations was based on the Cold War -- your country's "side" was the single factor that determined just about everything else that happened to you in the world. 
Anyone under the age of 40 really has no idea what it was like. Profoundly discouraging, really, to realize how easily it might start up again. 
So hey, everybody, as if the 2020s couldn't get any worse -- welcome to the Spring 2022 semester of Return To Ancient History 101: Let's Find The Red Phone Again!
Come to think of it, I really really HOPE there is still a Red Phone tucked away in a drawer in the White House and another in the Kremlin, so Putin and Biden can talk to each other and maybe figure out how we can save Ukraine while still ratchetting down the NFZ hyperbole and the WW3 hysteria. 
As I recall, one of the ways we used to do that was to figure out some mutual work-around that would make it look like each side had "won" something, so everybody could walk away with their heads held high. 
So maybe that will be the next step here -- can Biden figure out how both Putin and the Ukraine can "win" in this conflict? I'm not sure.
Getting back to today, from my reading of tweets, it appears Russia is divided internally over this war too -- thousands of Russians are protesting even though they are getting arrested, but many other Russians are showing support for the war, and the large white "Z" symbol has become their version of the MAGA hat or the "Q" symbol.
Here is a fascinating though very lengthy thread about what Russians are thinking and experiencing: And more history here: The No Fly Zone discussion continues here: One critical question about how this war will progress may now be this: where does China fit? Will they end up supporting Putin's aggression or will they remain somewhat neutral? 
Here is some discussion about this: Finally, on the lighter side: I hope David Frum's wife Danielle Crittenden is right: On other topics, I saw some interesting tweets about "living with" COVID and what this could mean -- here's a good thread: Here's an interesting though discouraging VOX article about the two-century-old roots of "anti-vaxxers":
 Whether in the 19th century or today, it should be no surprise that vaccines, more than other medical advances, require trust and conversation, and sometimes inspire intense resistance. 
 “People are healthy when you give it to them, and it’s asking them to accept this to protect them from a danger that may or may not happen to them,” Colgrove said. In some ways, communication around vaccines encapsulates the problem of public health as a field: “The benefits that it promises are invisible,” Colgrove said. “When it succeeds, you’re not aware of it.” 
 The challenge, then, is to convince people to trust the public health system enough that they will accept a treatment whose benefits they may not see right away — or ever. History shows such trust is possible, but it has to be earned. And when that trust is broken, it may take generations to repair. 
  And if your vocabulary needs a boost:
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Sunday, March 06, 2022

Today's News: Small Mercies

Thank heaven for small mercies, at least -- because as awful as things are, at least TFG (The Former Guy) isn't still president: What an ass! Compare and contrast with how Biden is handling the uncertainty and danger of these times: Such admirable courage in Ukraine: Lots of thoughtful articles and good tweet threads today, with fresh information and insight: Options for helping Ukraine are limited, but Biden is working as hard as he can to find some: When the going gets tough, the tough get trolled on twitter:
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Saturday, March 05, 2022

Today's News: Oops

I deleted one of my tweets today. 
It was, of course, about the situation in the Ukraine and in it, I supported the NATO decision not to implement a No Fly List, also criticizing Ukraine's negative reaction to NATO's decision. 
But as the hours went by, and I got some people criticizing me and some supporting me, I came to the conclusion that my opinion was likely wrong, or at the very least, too slapdash and not nuanced enough: All in all, I was reminded of the pinned tweet from the great Charles Pierce: Yes, we definitely do need to escape that, don't we.
And now, on with the news for today:
In the good news category, aid is now reaching Ukraine. And file this under the category "There ain't nobody here but us chickens":
And Ottawa is absolutely furious tonight:
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Thursday, March 03, 2022

Today's News: Holding on

That much-discussed convoy to Kyiv doesn't seem to be getting there very fast: Here's the latest Conspiracy Theory that Russia is using to try to explain this war to its own people: And just in case you didn't already notice.... And in Canadian news, here's the zombie bite question:
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