Russia is heading for an outright defeat in Ukraine. Russian planning was incompetent, based on a flawed assumption that Ukrainians were favorable to Russia and that their military would collapse immediately following an invasion. Russian soldiers were evidently carrying dress uniforms for their victory parade in Kyiv rather than extra ammo and rations. Putin at this point has committed the bulk of his entire military to this operation—there are no vast reserves of forces he can call up to add to the battle.Russian troops are stuck outside various Ukrainian cities where they face huge supply problems and constant Ukrainian attacks. The collapse of their position could be sudden and catastrophic, rather than happening slowly through a war of attrition. The army in the field will reach a point where it can neither be supplied nor withdrawn, and morale will vaporize.
This whole 25-tweet thread is worth checking but here is the main map showing the situation March 11:"As long as we continue to provide the weapons and ammunition, I believe they [Ukrainians] can stay in the fight until they have won — until the Russians have finally culminated," @general_ben tells @amanpour why Russia cannot win a war of attrition against Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/EZbR5m2IsI
— CEPA (@cepa) March 13, 2022
Here is an interesting analysis of the Kyiv situation:1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 16: Russian forces initiate an operational pause to refit and reorganize after failed attempts to encircle Kyiv. The Ukrainians continue to harass Russian supply routes and hold key cities of Kharkiv, Mariupol, and Mikolaiyv. #UkraineRussiaWar pic.twitter.com/piaFTkZDaO
— Jomini of the West (@JominiW) March 12, 2022
-the 1 arrow on right (about 15k troops) has been beat up in Sumy & Chernihiv
— Mark Hertling (@MarkHertling) March 13, 2022
-all logistics columns have and continue to suffer significant losses
-an attack takes a 3:1 advantage; a siege takes much more. 2/4
Another lengthy thread on why Russia's army is not winning:-the 3 RU generals who were KIA came from these units. They’ve lost other commanders as well.
— Mark Hertling (@MarkHertling) March 13, 2022
Maps are helpful, but there’s always more needed to understand the arrows represent people. 4/4
I don't know whether this story is true or not, but it SHOULD be true!Why Russian army is so weak?
— Kamil Galeev (@kamilkazani) March 12, 2022
When Russia invaded, experts thought it'd win in 24-72 hours. Two weeks later the war's still going. How come? On paper Russian superiority's overwhelming
Although Russia projects warlike image, its military r weak and don't know how to fight wars🧵 pic.twitter.com/oUhfWHxf9e
How an Ukrainian village armed with two flags defeated two Russian tanks:
— Tomasz OryÅ„ski (@TOrynski) March 11, 2022
1. 4 Russian tanks enter village. Villagers watch carefully from distance. Russians transfer fuel from two of them to other two, get onto those two and leave the two dry tanks in the village.
4. One of the yanks drives onto a bridge with 5 tonnes weight limit. the bridge collapses, tanks falls into the river, everyone inside dies.
— Tomasz OryÅ„ski (@TOrynski) March 11, 2022
5. The other tank keeps driving around, get lost and finally gets stuck in the ditch. Russians get out of it and walk away.
— Audrey Robertson (@AudreyR01775052) March 12, 2022I've been seeing so many pictures from Ukraine and here are the ones that affected me the most.
Kharkiv. https://t.co/no54m399uW pic.twitter.com/HDEaQGNlXl
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) March 13, 2022
— Tom Chapman 🌻 🇺🇸 (@realTomChapman) March 12, 2022These little angel wings!
Where can we go buy this stamp!? :-)https://t.co/c5cUh5gBF4
— Sheldon Whitehouse (@SenWhitehouse) March 13, 2022
This is beautiful:Some new artwork from Uta Kaxniashvili...he certainly captured the moment that we all saw on television of this child walking to the border to escape the Russian carnage. pic.twitter.com/B5b9eK7Hfx
— dfrntdrmmr (@dfrntdrmmr) March 11, 2022
A violinist in a basement shelter in Ukraine, accompanied by 94 violinists from around the world.
— Wolfgang Blau (@wblau) March 11, 2022
Download the score to record your own contribution: https://t.co/2bTdu7E62kpic.twitter.com/oK739B2yCX
Good morning from Kyiv, a newly born Ukrainian baby girl! Life continues and so will #Ukraine!
— Aleko Yakobidze🇬🇪 (@A_Yakobidze) March 10, 2022
💙🇺🇦💛 pic.twitter.com/L5qXkmPUxc
No comments:
Post a Comment