Today's News: Hunkering Down

When you're waiting at a pile of sandbags for an invading army, why not just play some music?  

I get the impression today that we are realizing there may not be a quick end to the Russia Ukraine War - the easy answer of a No Fly Zone is not happening, and it wasn't an easy answer anyway.  The Russians aren't advancing much but they're not retreating either. So it will grind on. 

It will, I believe, now depend on whether Ukraine can keep holding on as arms deliveries from the West increase but as daily life for Ukrainians becomes more and more difficult. Food and medicines, for one thing -- if there are going to be any trucker convoys in Europe, then maybe they should be focusing on how to deliver food and supplies to Ukraine cities.

And while I am no supporter of No Fly Zones, but maybe those food convoys could be protected from attack on Ukraine highways by Western airpower - a type of "defensive corridor" NFZ, if you will.

But I digress.  For today, here is the map from ISW - virtually the same map as yesterday:

The likelihood is increasing that #Ukrainian forces could fight to a standstill the #Russian ground forces attempting to encircle and take #Kyiv.

Read the latest report from @TheStudyofWar and @criticalthreats https://t.co/wD6Mq7Lhj3 pic.twitter.com/bfBpmtBszg

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) March 10, 2022

And from their daily report:

The likelihood is increasing that Ukrainian forces could fight to a standstill the Russian ground forces attempting to encircle and take Kyiv. Russian forces also appear to be largely stalemated around Kharkiv and distracted from efforts to seize that city. Russian advances in the south around Mykolayiv and toward Zaporizhya and in the east around Donetsk and Luhansk made little progress as well in the last 24 hours. Russia likely retains much greater combat power in the south and east and will probably renew more effective offensive operations in the coming days, but the effective reach and speed of such operations is questionable given the general performance of the Russian military to date.

Seth Abramson released his major article tonight and it is excellent though depressing read - his basic thesis is that the West is already fighting World War Three (aka Cold War Two) against Putin, and the war won't stop until Putin is dead or deposed. 

Best to read it for yourself:

(🔓) PROOF UNLOCKED: The Ten Hardest Truths About the War in Europe

I hope you’ll RETWEET this free article widely. It’s long and complex—and the product of years of research into Russia, Ukraine, and the role America is playing in the current world war. https://t.co/ezft1M2jVW

— Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) March 11, 2022

His 10 truths will be difficult for us all.

Here's another interesting article that might help explain why Ukraine is able to fight so well now:

This is a good piece for reporters to read, background may help with your work. // How the Ukrainian Military Went from 'Decrepit' to Surprisingly Strong https://t.co/xZeMfD1Y6N via @DefenseOne

— Kevin Baron (@DefenseBaron) March 10, 2022

Another interesting thread:

A quick thread about moral injunctions, imperatives, MiGs, no-fly zones, and the standards for effective judgment.
Overall message: Acting on the basis of imperative-driven thinking, especially under time pressure in a crisis, is a common prelude to disaster

— Mike Mazarr (@MMazarr) March 9, 2022

And several news reports today:

WSJ says Pentagon considering transferring longer-range air-defence systems to Ukraine including "what NATO refers to as the SA-8 and SA-10, which can target planes at much higher altitudes". Would make it harder for Russia to establish air superiority. https://t.co/eu2LyI917g https://t.co/89eEXnypAW

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) March 10, 2022

New from me: Russia is weaponizing the conspiracy theory about Ukrainian bioweapons labs to justify its war. Given long-standing fears about Russia's own bioweapons program, there's reason to worry about what happens next.https://t.co/km8IWAW5nn

— Justin Ling (@Justin_Ling) March 10, 2022

More to come . Overwhelming support for Ukraine and approval of Canadian response to date. Notably the only sources of Russian support are heavily concentrated in unvaccinated Canada . What connects both? Amongst other things --disinformation .

— Frank Graves (@VoiceOfFranky) March 11, 2022

I still get the impression that some people under 40 aren't getting it yet:

I saw someone say recently 'if Putin goes nuclear, UK and US will just retaliate' as if that wasn't exactly the worst possible outcome.

— Adrian Wilson (@AdrianW123) March 10, 2022

Some funnier stuff:

Q: What's the difference between a ruble and a dollar?

A: A dollar.

— Tea Pain (@TeaPainUSA) March 10, 2022

And because yesterday was International Women's Day:

I feel like this “experiment “ of letting men run everything has gone on long enough.

— Monique Parent (@moniqueparent) March 10, 2022

Here's a fascinating story:

Exploring the hidden history of Indigenous relations with Ukrainian settlers.

How one researcher is uncovering the connections that were often forgotten — and sometimes erased.

That’s on this episode of Nation to Nation.https://t.co/3oN3si2DWV

— APTN News (@APTNNews) March 11, 2022

Here's a little language lesson:

Exchange with a cashier just now:

He: How would you like to pay?
Me: With my Visa
He: tâpwe
Me: (surprized) kinehiyiwân?
He: Sorry?
Me: I asked if you speak Cree?
He: No, why?
Me: You just said tâpwe, which means 'Truth'
He: (Pointing to the Visa terminal) No ... "Tap Away"

— Lance Pantz (@NorthernPihesiw) March 10, 2022

A few yrs ago I was at Home Hardware and the cashier said "Miigwech" when I was done.
I asked if she was Nish. She said "No, but last time you were here you were wearing a Strong, Resilient, Indigenous shirt, so I wanted to thank you properly next time and Googled it."

— Lance Pantz (@NorthernPihesiw) March 11, 2022