Tuesday, March 22, 2022

Today's News: Patience

All in all, today I am seeing less panic and more patience as international affairs experts are able to develop a longer-term analysis of what Putin's War will mean for the world and how we might get through this.  People are, I think, starting to see what an end game could look like. 
Some of these long-form analysis articles are downthread. First of all tonight I wanted to start with this observation: 
One of the interesting things I am finding about this war is that there is always "some guy" doing tweets or posting blogs who really knows what he is talking about. 
These aren't usually professional journalists, just somebody with some expertise or experience, sharing the wealth with everyone. 
Like, for example, this guy Trent Telenko -- he knows a lot about how an army is supposed to maintain its equipment, and says the Russian army isn't doing it. 
Here's the end of his 17-tweet thread: And then there are people like Markos and Mark Sumner and Hunter at Daily Kos, who in one sense are just people with a blog, like me, but they have a profound knowledge of tactics, diplomacy, political science and international relations. Their posts point me to tweets like this one: Here's some good news: This is an incredible story about how the last two international journalists in Mariupol, from Associated Press, escaped the city. 
... We reached an entryway, and armored cars whisked us to a darkened basement. 
Only then did we learn from a policeman why the Ukrainians had risked the lives of soldiers to extract us from the hospital. 
 “If they catch you, they will get you on camera and they will make you say that everything you filmed is a lie,” he said. “All your efforts and everything you have done in Mariupol will be in vain.”  
The officer, who had once begged us to show the world his dying city, now pleaded with us to go. He nudged us toward the thousands of battered cars preparing to leave Mariupol. 
It was March 15. We had no idea if we would make it out alive. . . . 
With this war, it's sometimes hard to sort out what is an accurate critique of how badly the Russian military is performing, and what could be just wishful thinking that the Russians will somehow defeat themselves. 
But as the days and weeks go by, it seems that Ukraine is actually defeating the Russia invasion:
It was announced today that more than 10,000 Russian soldiers have died -- and western observers seemed to agree that this is an undercount, that likely at least twice that number have died, and more tens of thousands injured. 
I read a gruesome story today that Ukrainians are now digging up their trenches of Russian bodies in shallow graves and trading them to Russian units in exchange for their Ukrainian prisoners. 
Confirming what was discussed yesterday at Daily Kos, here is an excellent article in The Atlantic - Eliot A. Cohen Why Can’t the West Admit That Ukraine Is Winning? 
...pictures of shattered hospitals, dead children, and blasted apartment blocks accurately convey the terror and brutality of this war, but they do not convey its military realities. To put it most starkly: If the Russians level a town and slaughter its civilians, they are unlikely to have killed off its defenders, who will do extraordinary and effective things from the rubble to avenge themselves on the invaders. 
A very perceptive article today by David Rothkopf: U.S., Ukraine, NATO Have a Secret Weapon Against Russia: Patience. 
 How long is a night when you are huddled beneath a blanket on a subway station floor, holding your baby in your arms as missiles and bombs reduce the city over your head to rubble? . . . 
Time means something different in a war zone. 
It is more precious, more tortuous, more valuable, and more treacherous. 
When I spoke recently to a senior U.S. State Department official about the war in Ukraine, time was at the center of every point he made. It was the secret weapon of the Ukrainians and the greatest challenge they and their allies faced. 
Over time sanctions against the Russians would cause increasing pain. 
Over time mounting losses in Ukraine would generate ever greater opposition to Putin within his own country. . . . 
...we have to find a way to have patience. And he acknowledged the Russians knew that and that is why they were so determined to escalate attacks, to destroy cities, to inflict more pain on civilians. Because they knew that only if they did that they might force Ukraine to the negotiating table on favorable terms. . . . 
U.S. officials speculate that the threats of escalation are a strategy by Putin to force a settlement while he still has some leverage and can escape this conflict with something that he can tell his people was a “win” and worth the sacrifice. A protracted war is, at this point, at least in the view of the senior state department official with whom I spoke, not to Putin’s advantage. 
That is why he emphasized the importance of letting the strategy of supporting Ukraine’s fierce resistance while waging something like intense economic warfare against Russia, be given time to work. 
Here is another interesting analysis here, by a German foreign policy analyst: Delightful: And back to Canadian politics for this:
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Monday, March 21, 2022

Today's News: Slava Ukraini for Mariupol


In this photo, a mother at the Lviv train station embraces her son after he escaped Mariupol. (Photo by AP Bernat Armangue) The news today from Mariupol is terrible -- Ukraine has rejected Russia's demand that Mariupol surrender, so this brave proud city may be doomed.
At Balloon Juice, Adam Silverman describes why Putin wants to kill hundreds of thousands of people in Mariupol: 
Part of the reason that the Russians are so hell bent on taking Mariupol is that the Ukrainian forces defending it are the Azov Battalion. When the EuroMaidan revolt against Yanukovych began in 2014 one of the groups involved where a bunch of Ukrainian neo-fascists and neo-NAZIs who had their origins as a group in Soviet football hooliganism and ultimately evolved into a local self defense militia for lack of a better term. 
After Putin scarfed up the Donbas and Crimea these guys reorganized themselves into a battalion within Ukraine’s National Guard. While there have been attempts over the past several years to clean the neo-NAZIs and ultra-nationalists out of the battalion, with a 2015 estimate that only 10-20% of the members were neo-NAZIs, in order for them to receive training from the US, no one is sure how successful these efforts are. 
Regardless, the Azov Battalion is Putin’s prime evidence that Ukraine is full of NAZIs. And because they’ve been effective in fighting against his occupation of the Donbas, he wants them wiped out. 
Right now he has them, as well as over 300,000 civilians – not the 130,000 in the Russian ultimatum – trapped inside Mariupol. And he’s going to do whatever he can and whatever he thinks he can get away with to kill every last one of them. 
Most of this history is virtually unknown in the West, and it doesn't justify any of Putin's war crimes anyway. What people are seeing now is the horrendous, unwarranted destruction of a great city. 
The more death and destruction is endured by Ukraine, the angrier people around the world are getting. But what can we do? 
The Pope is speaking out too: At least in the rest of Ukraine, Russia is not advancing: Interesting analysis here, though its a little short on solutions -- as we all are these days: I continue to rely on Markos and Mark Sumner over at Daily Kos for their daily updates. 
I also appreciate the comments that Carlo Graziani is making over at Balloon Juice. Here's his comment tonight as everyone is waiting to see what happens to Mariupol:
 ... it seems likely that it’s going to get worse, and uglier, before it gets better. And the people who will be paying the price are Ukrainians, largely civilians. 
And we will be largely sitting on the sidelines, anxiously, raging, but limited in what we can do directly.
 It remains true that the Ukrainians are heroes, and tough, and show no sign of tiring of this fight despite the Russian’s appetite for brutality and terror. They are giving the Russian army a pitiless mauling, and there is no doubt that if the Russians were to occupy any part of Ukranian territory now, theit occupation would receive a worse treatment than the Yugoslavian partisans gave the Wermacht in the Second World War. 
We are going to have to remember where the guard rails are. There are thresholds we can’t pass, as enraging as that fact may be, because a NATO-Russia war can still burn down the world. 
But there is a lot that we can do that is useful below that threshold, such as massive weapons supply, intelligence support, and training. And keeping up, and increasing, sanctions pressure. None of this can alter current tactical situations, or — to put it less clinically — prevent the homicidal war-criminal toll of the Putinist offensive from climbing, for now. The truth is, nothing can. I hate writing this, but I believe that it is the truth. 
I wrote, a few weeks ago, that we’re in a slugging match, and that the main thing is to stay in it until the other guy falls down. That seems a bit glib to me now, because the people paying the price of staying in it are all Ukrainian. I am incredibly grateful for their willingness to fight on, and want to find every way to help them fight. But it’s going to be a long fight. 
Their fight is our fight. I really believe that. I don’t want this thing to end with Putin still hanging on to power. That son-of-a-bitch has been actively undermining our democratic institutions and dividing us from our allies for a decade. 
We need to take this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to fuck him. Not find a compromise that lets up on the sanctions while letting Russia keep their Black Sea corridor because Great Powers Must Have their Interests Acknowledged. Fuck that realist noise. This is the real payback for January 6. Maximum pressure, until a can of cabbage costs $25 in Moscow. I want to see those Chekist assholes deal with food riots, and beg the Army to save them. 
The framework cannot be a compromise with Putin. It has to be a compromise with Russia, to move beyond Putinism. At this point, we should be prepared for a new Cold War, rather than tolerate that parasite sending us more Trumps. 
Finally, this is just heartwarming to see:
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Sunday, March 20, 2022

Today's News: An indominable spirit

Marcus Yam, LA Times

The Ukraine spirit is indominable - here's a photo by Marcus Yam, LA Times, of a soldier saluting his fellows near Kyiv.
Here's a fascinating BBC interview with a Canadian soldier about the kind of fighting the Ukraine army has been trained for -"what shines through is the will and determination and strength" of the Ukraine soldier: I'm happy to see this mother and baby safe now at a hospital in Kyiv, though her haunted eyes get to me:
I was looking up posts on the Mariupol Theatre tragedy today, and I found some bizarre "Mariupol-denial" stories floating around. 
I guess Russia's deliberate targeting of a marked shelter full of women and children was too much for even the most devoted Putin-supporter to stomach. So now there is a determined effort to deny it happened, to deflect it on to Ukraine, to turn the destruction into a lie, to claim the theatre was maybe blown up by retreating Ukraine soldiers or maybe didn't have any victims inside at all, that it was all crisis actors -- I'm not going to insert any of these tweets here, but I imagine we're going to be seeing lots more of these types of disgusting denial stories as Russian war crimes in Ukraine keep on happening.
By the way, here is something I have noticed:  while I am just as interested in what is happening in the Russia Ukraine War as I ever was, Twitter is moving on. 
The updates and news from Ukraine are getting more difficult to find as other events get tweeted about more often. So I have started my own list, My Russia Ukraine War List as a shorter reference of people whose tweets about the war I find to be the most useful or on point. I also follow other lists too: The Hoarse Whisperer's list Ukraine Coverage, and Josh Marshall's lists 2202 Ukraine Crisis and Ukraine Military Analysts. So these may be useful if you are also wanting more coverage.
I also follow Markos' posts at Daily Kos. Here's what he reports this afternoon:
We know that Ukraine has pushed Russian forces away from Mykolaiv in Southern Ukraine, and halted any hope Russia has of capturing the grand city of Odesa anytime soon. We also have seen confirmed that they’ve pushed out to Posad-Pokrovske, half the distance from Mykolaiv to Kherson, the largest Ukrainian city currently under Russian control. And that’s where things get murky. Because either Ukraine has pushed east and has opened up a 2-prong approach into Kherson, or all they’ve managed to do is create a little breathing room around Mykolaiv.
I get the impression it will take some time, maybe several more days, before anyone can determine whether Ukraine is actually "winning" this war, or just "not losing", and where this is happening. Rob Lee's thread today: Here's some other news: Here's something else I have noticed too: the vast difference between what the New York Times is reporting about this war, and what everyone else is reporting. If you read only the New York Times, it sounds like Russia is winning. But just about nobody else thinks so. Here's an interesting discussion about this: And back on this side of the pond: Bob Rae is doing Canada proud at the United Nations. Today he writes: Like an ancient dinosaur rising from a swamp, Newt Gingrich is trying to rear his ugly head again: And finally, we've all seen way too much of the instant geopolitical experts gracing us with their opinions, so I found this thread hilarious -- check it out:
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Saturday, March 19, 2022

Today's News: Pushing back

My heart: So this happened: The world rocked with laughter as the tweet went viral; only Russia was not amused. And I loved this response too: Checking the New York Times Ukraine map page, I see their conclusion that Russian forces are making advances in the eastern half of Ukraine: 
Ukrainian forces continue to hold off Russian advances near Kyiv, Kharkiv and in large parts of the South. Russian advances have been hindered by supply issues, with many units around the country pausing operations while they regroup. But in the east, Russian forces have made steady progress in recent days, moving west from the separatist-held territory of Donbas. 


But Markos at Daily Kos sees this somewhat differently. He analyzes the battles going on across the Ukraine and says the Ukraine Army is pushing back in the south west, aiming to push Russia back from Kherson and Melitopol  

The red arrow on the top left marks the furthest point of Russian advance, and Ukraine has now pushed the Russians back almost to Kherson. Kos writes: 
 Liberating Kherson would offer Ukraine a propaganda victory if immeasurable worth. The press is still afraid to question whether Russia is losing. That’s why we see headline after headline about Russia “pausing” and “resupplying” and “regrouping” and “reinforcing” and the like, instead of the more accurate “stuck in the mud.” Losing its biggest prize, Russia’s dire straits would be harder to hide. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian people would see tangible proof that the tide of the war was turning. 
A very interesting analysis of the battle as it is progressing. And here's another analysis from a retired army general Mark Hertling, which I found in a reference in the comments on the Markos post -- he also provides a very useful analysis, particularly for someone like me who knows nothing about military tactics:
Read the whole thread, but here are some key pieces: And here's more recent news: Everybody wants to contribute to Ukraine: Biden spent two hours talking about Ukraine and world issues with Xi: There are lots of tweets about what was said, but I liked this one: On a side note, this thread is hilarious:
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Friday, March 18, 2022

Today's News: Reality bites

Photos from the Russia Ukraine War are striking and memorable, so I am planning to post some daily.
This Reuters photo of a woman carrying her cat to safety is so beautiful it haunts me: Coincidentally, CNN's Brian Stelter and Oliver Darcy in their nightly email newsletter tonight highlighted the work of photographers throughout the Ukraine. Here are some of their links: 
 Associated Press: Inside Mariupol's devastation 
And some other photo essays here: 
 The Atlantic: Animals can be refugees too 

The world is so angry now at Putin and at Russia, it may not be possible anymore for everyone to just forgive and forget. 
But in Slate today, Tyler Austin Harper writes eloquently about the profound and tragic reality which we in the West now find ourselves facing - that there cannot be any heroes in a nuclear war. So yes, America and NATO can help Ukraine in many ways, but it can't fight the war for them, not without risking nuclear annihilation. And that reality could be a tragedy with no solution.
I worry that many of us expect this to be a modern story: one where good prevails, evil is vanquished, and the invaders are turned away at the city gates.... If the Ukraine crisis has brought anything into focus, it is that our national identity and our national interest are at odds... 
many—indeed most—of those Americans calling for a no-fly zone ...are simply people who cannot accept that, at a certain point, there is nothing more America can do. They are people who cannot believe there may come a time when we must contemplate letting Putin win, because the alternative would be to set Europe—and Ukraine with it—on thermonuclear fire. They are people who cannot bring themselves to understand that American heroism is in this instance impossible, that the price for our past sins—for the terrible bomb we invented that we alone have ever used in anger—is that the United States can no longer swoop in to save the day. 
We can send money, provide defensive supplies, and impose sanctions. We can make this war costly, in terms of international standing and economic stability, for Russia and its allies. But that is all we can do. And if it is not enough? Then that will be a nearly incomprehensible tragedy. 
But the alternatives are more incomprehensible, more tragic still. ...
The atomic genie shed its bottle in 1945, and it cannot be put back. The morally monochrome heroism of America’s past—the America that carried out a democratic revolution, that tore itself asunder to abolish slavery, that turned back the Third Reich—is no more. 
We can no longer risk everything in defense of our utmost values. That is the devil’s bargain we made when we dropped “Fat Man” and “Little Boy” on two Japanese cities, transposing human shadows onto concrete. 
This does not mean the heroism of American individuals is over ... [but] military heroism of America as a nation can no longer function in extremis. The stakes have become too unfathomable, and our very power has become our most profound weakness. 
So pray for the heroism of Ukrainians—pray that they can hold on, make do with what help the world can provide—but it is time we let go of the old American fantasy that there is no war we cannot win, no democracy we cannot save, no wrong we cannot right. 
Ukraine faces an enemy whose capacity for evil may well be greater than America’s capacity for good. That is a tragedy, but it is a tragedy we must learn to understand if we are not to stumble into a greater tragedy still, out of a misplaced faith in our own heroism. Much has changed in the world since 1945, but this fact has not: There are no heroes in a nuclear war. 
Biden knows all of this already, and so does Trudeau and the leaders of Europe. But its hard to figure out they are going to educate the public about this -- just look at the media hysteria yesterday in Canada over Joly's "convene" remark. And the number of people I see online slamming Biden for "doing nothing" because they still think its a movie, that the US can just send in the 82nd Airborne and win the war before the credits role. Sigh. Well meaning, but really.... That said, Putin is also facing a difficult reality, too -- he is losing the war in Ukraine. He fired another general today as his illegal war went from bad to worse, and Ukraine continues to battle back on several fronts: I see tweets about the upcoming NATO meeting, and the expectation that NATO can figure out what more can be done -- I hope so, but I guess I just can't see anything yet:
Another big question is where China will land in all this: At Daily Kos, Mark Sumner is talking about the Russia Ukraine War as the first war where new kinds of weapons are being used to attack enemy positions: 
 In just three weeks of combat, Ukraine has become not just a war zone, but a laboratory. On the one hand, Russia is using the same tactics of brutality, and the same weapons, that it has deployed for decades to destroy cities and persecute its invasion. On the other hand, Ukraine is defending itself with an arsenal that increasingly depends on weapons designed to take down armor and aircraft. Where Ukraine has been less successful is in degrading Russia’s ability to inflict brutality to civilian areas — but systems like Switchblade might well help with that. Because while a soldier with a rifle can’t do anything about artillery firing from woods five miles away, a soldier with a Switchblade definitely can.
 Other news today, the world continues to figure out how it can help: And the latest news is that 130 people have been rescued now from the Maruipol theatre bombing.
Finally, I'll bet very few people knew this before: Obama should have done it. 
And this also happened today:
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Thursday, March 17, 2022

Today's News: The worst option except for all the others

I got the impression for the first time today that more Canadians and Americans are finally realizing that the Russia Ukraine War might not just be another far-away war we check nightly on TV as we chatter about our few off-the-cuff ideas for how easily the Prime Minister or the President could get it all resolved if only they were "stronger", whatever that means. 
The No-Fly-Zone-NOW! yelling is, I think, tamping down a bit as everybody begins to understand that there are no quick-and-easy solutions in Cold War Two -- yes, Ukraine's cities are being targetted in terrible war crimes and yes, a No Fly Zone could save Ukraine lives, but no, there is no real way to just limit a NFZ to a "humanitarian corridor" and even if there was, any NFZ could lead to the US military shooting down Russian aircraft and this could start a nuclear World War Three and nobody wants that. 
The only real option we have is just to try to stop the war before Ukraine is blown to bits -- you could maybe describe it as the worst option except for all the others. So this is the option that Biden and Trudeau and Johnson and NATO are doing: arm the Ukraine as quickly as possible so the Ukrainians can save their own cities, plus hammer Russia with sanctions until they agree to a ceasefire.
Jen Psacki said it very succinctly today to the reporters at the White House press briefing, very few of whom are old enough to remember the Cold War:  "A no-fly zone is the United States declaring war against Russia."
Canada is sending more arms, and so is the US: As the truth sinks in, we are also starting to wonder how much danger Canada might be in: The news from Ukraine continues to be awful - the worst today was the theatre blasted by Russian bombs, where a thousand people including children were trying to find shelter. We don't know yet how many died but it is clear that this attack was a war crime. Even the Pope is concerned about Mariupol: But in spite of it all, Ukraine abides: Russia is failing everywhere now across Ukraine: Russia got kicked out of the Council of Europe too: Putin is proving himself to be a war criminal: I think we all agree with Julia here: Here's a blast from the past: But there is one thing we can count on -- there will always be those who fix their attention firmly on what's REALLY important in our society these days: how people are dressed: This Peter Schiff guy is a self-described "economist and global strategist" but apparently he was also a GOP candidate sometime. So of course, after thousands of people criticized his stupid remark, he just had to double down:
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Wednesday, March 16, 2022

Today's News: The end of the beginning?

Its not the end, nor the beginning of the end, but it may be the end of the beginning. 
Russia is still making war on Ukraine, people are still dying. 
But Russia's trucks are running out of gas, their generals are getting killed, their soldiers are looting for food, and Putin is trying to find replacements from other countries. 
The news today indicated that the attempt to encircle Kyiv is failing, though the cities in the south seem to be in more serious trouble. 
But as Zelenskyy is talking to the Canadian parliament today and the US Congress tomorrow, there appear to be new and powerful weapons on the way to Ukraine, too.
The leadership shown by Joe Biden through all this is absolutely outstanding:
  Here's some news from today: Some people are still obsessed with the No Fly Zone idea, which of course came up again when Zelenskyy made his address to Parliament today. What does it all mean? Why is this war different? 
At Balloon Juice, Watergirl is discussing this question and commenter Carlo Graziani sums it up this way: 
...there used to be an international architecture — amoral, but mindfully-constructed — for managing the Cold War, and when it became obsolete in 1991 it was not replaced by anything well-thought out.
Rather, a smug elite “Davos Consensus” ruled, which one might capture in a phrase by “all that remains now is for the rest of the world to become as smart as we are, and everyone will get rich”. 
Everyone did not get rich. 
Instead, a series of economic, military, climate, epidemiological, and income/wealth inequality-driven instabilities created massive global popular anxiety, which was exploited by nationalist populist demagogues with no commitment to the Enlightenment project, (Milosevic, Orban, Berlusconi, Putin, Modi, Bolsonero, Le Pen, Farage, Trump, among others). 
The Davos Consensus never deigned to notice the growing challenge, and at the same time undermined the West’s understanding of what it stood for. “Freedom” was right-wing nutter discourse, embarrassing in polite company. We talked instead about the importance getting rich. 
By 2016, everything had turned to shit, and we could not understand how things could possibly have gone this apocalyptically badly. The anti-democratic challenge from the discontents of reason seemed unstoppable, at times. 
Fast forward to “I need ammunition, not a ride!” That would be Zelenskyy reminding us of our heritage. 
Of the fact that liberty is, in fact, more important than getting rich. 
Showing us what liberty really means, what it is worth, and what it costs. 
That was the turning point. That’s why this war is different. 
Even the damn Germans would now prefer liberty to getting rich. 
Zelenskyy turned the war in Ukraine into the antidote for the intellectual toxicity of the Davos Consensus. 
He reminded us of our duties to our freedoms, and that “freedom” is not, in fact, a dirty word, however badly idiot truckers may abuse it. 
Supporting this war is not “warmongering”. 
Rather, it signifies a return to the best version of our Western selves. We owe Ukrainians, and Zelenskyy in particular, more than we can ever repay them. 
 A very thoughtful piece. 
And now, on a lighter side:
And in other news, this happened: Read the whole thread for other Clooney - heat pump look-a-likes. 
And there was this, too: Twitter went nuts about the "half a giraffe" standard of measurement: The National Review writes: 
Since when, exactly, did we measure asteroids in giraffes?  I’m no astronomer, but “a giraffe” seems to be an extremely odd way of measuring any item that is not, in fact, a giraffe. 
Back in 1999, NASA lost a $125 million Mars orbiter because, as the Los Angeles Times reported it, “spacecraft engineers failed to convert from English to metric measurements when exchanging vital data before the craft was launched.” 
One can only imagine how much worse this problem would have been had zoo animals been the standard. “Sorry, sir. It was an elementary mistake, really. The Florida lab uses alligators, but here in Maryland we’re still measuring with crabs, and so, when the orbiter finally got into position, it ended up hitting the atmosphere at the wrong angle by between two-thirds and three-quarters of a lemur.” 
 And Twitter remembered these clangers, too: And finally, this -- go Hillary!
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Tuesday, March 15, 2022

Today's News: Extinction Burst

An "extinction burst" is what little kids do when they melt down in a temper tantrum because they can't get what they want. 
From what I am reading tonight, Russia is now trying an "extinction burst" of attacks on Ukraine - Putin is furious that Ukraine won't surrender, and the Russian generals are making a desperation move before they run out of soldiers, ammo, food, gas, and the will to fight. 
Kos pointed out last Friday that Russia has been trying to advance on too many targets all at once, and failing to achieve their goals: 
Russia sucks at logistics, and yet they’re trying to keep a dozen lines of attack operational. Yeah, no wonder they’ve mostly grinded to a halt. Let’s zoom in on that Kyiv and Kharkiv/Sumi axes:  

See that long tendril from Sumi to Kyiv? That exists because Belorussia is north of Kyiv, Sumi is Russian border. It’s easier for Russia to get its supplies into the Kyiv area through Sumi than it is through yet another country. Yet despite being just kilometers from the border, Russia has been unable to take it. And that means that long tendril is 334 kms long (~210 miles), none of it secure, all ripe pickings for Ukrainian territorial defense forces—locals with guns and, increasingly, anti-tank missiles.....A regiment is around 600 soldiers, and [Russia has] shown no ability to mass larger groups for major assaults. One POW was complaining that his unit took more casualties from their own artillery than Ukrainians. Air cover is severely limited, likely for the same reason. Russian communication gear is literally commercial walkie talkies. Their $30 million advanced fighters have Samsung GPS units fixed to their windows. They can’t communicate, they can’t coordinate. This is the sort of thing western militaries practice time and time and time again. It’s expensive! It’s complicated! But our commanders don’t take the money and spend it on Italian villas and vodkas instead. 
Now ponder how Russia is expecting to take Kharkiv (pop. 1.4 million, pre-war of course), Sumy (pop. 265,000), Kyiv (pop. 2.9 million), Odesa (pop. 993,000), Mykolaiv (pop. 486,000) and Chernihiv (pop. 285,000) if they can’t even pull together 1,000 troops for an assault. No wonder they’ve settled on trying to terrorize civilians into compliance!
But Ukraine will not be terrorized, they will not give up, not after what they have been through these last 19 days. 
We are now on day nineteen of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and it remains in something of a holding pattern. Russian airstrikes are ramping up, and no, NATO will still not implement a no-fly zone because it will mean shooting down Russian targets, blowing up air defences on Russian soil, and dragging us into a shooting war with a nuclear power while at the same time not doing anything about ground-based shelling or missile-strikes. 
While sanctions continue to ramp up, the IMF is warning of a massive recession in Russia, which could have bigger international ramifications. 
That says it all in a couple of sentences. 
Here's what we can expect to see now:
Some tweets from today's US Defense Dept briefing: And Russia has no reserves left near the Ukraine borders: Steven Pifer in Bulletin of The Atomic Scientists has an interesting article about the "tacit" rules that the West and Russia have agreed on so far, to avoid crossing "red lines" so that the Russia Ukraine War will not escalate into World War Three. 
First, President Biden, NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg, and NATO member-state leaders have said that, while they will defend NATO territory, NATO forces will not take on Russian forces to defend Ukraine. ....It explains NATO’s decision not to establish a no-fly zone over Ukraine.... 
Second, US and NATO intelligence-sharing with Ukraine appears acceptable under the rules....they have not challenged US, British, and NATO aircraft conducting intelligence and air surveillance missions to look at what the Russian military is doing in, near, and over Ukraine. .... once the Russian military launched its invasion. US and British aircraft no longer fly in Ukrainian air space and appear to take more care regarding flights over the Black Sea. 
Third, the rules permit at least some Western arms shipments to Ukraine. In the weeks before and since Russian forces attacked, the United States, NATO member-states, and others have provided a stream of defense assistance to Ukraine,...the Russians do not like the arms shipments, though they have not acted to interdict them. ...[regarding the offer of Migs from Poland] The European Union, Polish, and US officials aired too much of the Mig-29 issue in public ... The fighters should have just been given to the Ukrainian air force with no public discussion, denying Moscow the opportunity to try to impose a limit on the arms provision rule.... 
Fourth, economic and other sanctions appear acceptable, if disliked, within the tacit rules, even if they went well beyond what the Kremlin might have anticipated. ...Moscow thus far has not wielded what many see as its major counter-sanction: an embargo of oil and gas sales to Europe, which would cause an energy crisis there.... 
But as the days go by, and as Russia increases its attacks on civilians, the suffering is horrific:
These war crimes will not be forgotten or forgiven. 
Here is one interesting "take" from journalist Julian Roepcke, an angle I had not thought of before: Yes, I can understand why Ukraine would not want to give away its territory, especially those provinces that would give Russia a direct access to Crimea and the Black Sea - Putin can strut and call that a victory, though its a far cry from what he actually wanted.
And the so-called "break-away" regions which supposedly already belong to Russia aren't happy with their new Russian overlords, either - people are demonstrating, two mayors have been arrested and illegally replaced; The Resistance in these provinces is just beginning:
There is going to be a significant long-standing effect from this war that I don't think anyone has yet understood -- for the first time, a billion people around the world who are under 40 years old will know what is is like to be threatened by nuclear war. 
  I think - I hope! - that this experience will make everyone put a little more thought and consideration into the quality of the politicians they are electing in the future. Because it matters!
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