Tuesday, March 15, 2022

Today's News: Extinction Burst

An "extinction burst" is what little kids do when they melt down in a temper tantrum because they can't get what they want. 
From what I am reading tonight, Russia is now trying an "extinction burst" of attacks on Ukraine - Putin is furious that Ukraine won't surrender, and the Russian generals are making a desperation move before they run out of soldiers, ammo, food, gas, and the will to fight. 
Kos pointed out last Friday that Russia has been trying to advance on too many targets all at once, and failing to achieve their goals: 
Russia sucks at logistics, and yet they’re trying to keep a dozen lines of attack operational. Yeah, no wonder they’ve mostly grinded to a halt. Let’s zoom in on that Kyiv and Kharkiv/Sumi axes:  

See that long tendril from Sumi to Kyiv? That exists because Belorussia is north of Kyiv, Sumi is Russian border. It’s easier for Russia to get its supplies into the Kyiv area through Sumi than it is through yet another country. Yet despite being just kilometers from the border, Russia has been unable to take it. And that means that long tendril is 334 kms long (~210 miles), none of it secure, all ripe pickings for Ukrainian territorial defense forces—locals with guns and, increasingly, anti-tank missiles.....A regiment is around 600 soldiers, and [Russia has] shown no ability to mass larger groups for major assaults. One POW was complaining that his unit took more casualties from their own artillery than Ukrainians. Air cover is severely limited, likely for the same reason. Russian communication gear is literally commercial walkie talkies. Their $30 million advanced fighters have Samsung GPS units fixed to their windows. They can’t communicate, they can’t coordinate. This is the sort of thing western militaries practice time and time and time again. It’s expensive! It’s complicated! But our commanders don’t take the money and spend it on Italian villas and vodkas instead. 
Now ponder how Russia is expecting to take Kharkiv (pop. 1.4 million, pre-war of course), Sumy (pop. 265,000), Kyiv (pop. 2.9 million), Odesa (pop. 993,000), Mykolaiv (pop. 486,000) and Chernihiv (pop. 285,000) if they can’t even pull together 1,000 troops for an assault. No wonder they’ve settled on trying to terrorize civilians into compliance!
But Ukraine will not be terrorized, they will not give up, not after what they have been through these last 19 days. 
We are now on day nineteen of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and it remains in something of a holding pattern. Russian airstrikes are ramping up, and no, NATO will still not implement a no-fly zone because it will mean shooting down Russian targets, blowing up air defences on Russian soil, and dragging us into a shooting war with a nuclear power while at the same time not doing anything about ground-based shelling or missile-strikes. 
While sanctions continue to ramp up, the IMF is warning of a massive recession in Russia, which could have bigger international ramifications. 
That says it all in a couple of sentences. 
Here's what we can expect to see now:
Some tweets from today's US Defense Dept briefing: And Russia has no reserves left near the Ukraine borders: Steven Pifer in Bulletin of The Atomic Scientists has an interesting article about the "tacit" rules that the West and Russia have agreed on so far, to avoid crossing "red lines" so that the Russia Ukraine War will not escalate into World War Three. 
First, President Biden, NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg, and NATO member-state leaders have said that, while they will defend NATO territory, NATO forces will not take on Russian forces to defend Ukraine. ....It explains NATO’s decision not to establish a no-fly zone over Ukraine.... 
Second, US and NATO intelligence-sharing with Ukraine appears acceptable under the rules....they have not challenged US, British, and NATO aircraft conducting intelligence and air surveillance missions to look at what the Russian military is doing in, near, and over Ukraine. .... once the Russian military launched its invasion. US and British aircraft no longer fly in Ukrainian air space and appear to take more care regarding flights over the Black Sea. 
Third, the rules permit at least some Western arms shipments to Ukraine. In the weeks before and since Russian forces attacked, the United States, NATO member-states, and others have provided a stream of defense assistance to Ukraine,...the Russians do not like the arms shipments, though they have not acted to interdict them. ...[regarding the offer of Migs from Poland] The European Union, Polish, and US officials aired too much of the Mig-29 issue in public ... The fighters should have just been given to the Ukrainian air force with no public discussion, denying Moscow the opportunity to try to impose a limit on the arms provision rule.... 
Fourth, economic and other sanctions appear acceptable, if disliked, within the tacit rules, even if they went well beyond what the Kremlin might have anticipated. ...Moscow thus far has not wielded what many see as its major counter-sanction: an embargo of oil and gas sales to Europe, which would cause an energy crisis there.... 
But as the days go by, and as Russia increases its attacks on civilians, the suffering is horrific:
These war crimes will not be forgotten or forgiven. 
Here is one interesting "take" from journalist Julian Roepcke, an angle I had not thought of before: Yes, I can understand why Ukraine would not want to give away its territory, especially those provinces that would give Russia a direct access to Crimea and the Black Sea - Putin can strut and call that a victory, though its a far cry from what he actually wanted.
And the so-called "break-away" regions which supposedly already belong to Russia aren't happy with their new Russian overlords, either - people are demonstrating, two mayors have been arrested and illegally replaced; The Resistance in these provinces is just beginning:
There is going to be a significant long-standing effect from this war that I don't think anyone has yet understood -- for the first time, a billion people around the world who are under 40 years old will know what is is like to be threatened by nuclear war. 
  I think - I hope! - that this experience will make everyone put a little more thought and consideration into the quality of the politicians they are electing in the future. Because it matters!
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