A year ago, Russia launched its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.
A year later, Ukraine still stands.
There is lots of commentary today about how Ukraine did this -- Zelenskyy's brilliant leadership, the indominable spirt of Ukraine's people, the ineptitude and corruption of the Russian military, the unwavering and effective financial and military support from Biden, NATO, the EU, Poland, England, and Canada.
David Rothkoph has made a list of what has been learned from this war so far:
...- While Ukraine has pleaded for fighter jets for a year, unmanned aircraft have stolen the show....
- “No Time for Sergeants” was once a TV hit in America. It has been a flop for the Russian army....
- Speaking of time, it’s time for traditional navies to realize their time will soon be up....
Poland is the new Germany. (And Estonia is the new France.)...
- Vladimir Putin may be a madman, but at least he has the common sense not to want to be obliterated in a nuclear war with NATO....
- Speaking of Putin, stick a fork in him. He may not be quite done yet, but he will be soon… and besides if anyone deserves to have a fork stuck in him, it’s Putin....
- ...Ukraine’s masterful use of social media has played a major role in shaping global public opinion about the war...
- Ukraine is already in the EU and NATO whether you (or Russia or Turkey) like it or not....
- With friends like Turkey, Israel, the global South and Elon Musk, who needs enemies?...
- And the most important lesson of all is, as it will be for the remainder of this century, everything is always about China....
... the prospects of a Ukrainian winter offensive, once widely anticipated, are pretty much nil. There’s no reason to waste lives and material when heavy Western armor is on its way, while the U.S. drills Ukrainian commanders on combined arms operations in Germany’s training fields.
Ukraine has gotten this far because it has always worked to undermine Russia’s logistics. It’s why they are screaming for longer-range rockets, to hit Russian ammo depots further behind enemy lines and force those supplies even further back. Ukraine’s success in shrinking the active front line is also its great challenge, as Russia squeezes more men into a smaller space.
But Ukraine won't win by killing 300,000 Russians. It will do so by cutting off their food and ammunition. Russia lost the war because of logistics, and Ukraine will win it for the same reason.