David Rothkoph has made a list of what has been learned from this war so far:
On February 24, millions of us made a choice. Not a white flag, but the blue and yellow one. Not fleeing, but facing. Resisting & fighting.— Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) February 24, 2023
It was a year of pain, sorrow, faith, and unity. And this year, we remained invincible. We know that 2023 will be the year of our victory! pic.twitter.com/oInWvssjOI
...- While Ukraine has pleaded for fighter jets for a year, unmanned aircraft have stolen the show....- “No Time for Sergeants” was once a TV hit in America. It has been a flop for the Russian army....- Speaking of time, it’s time for traditional navies to realize their time will soon be up....Poland is the new Germany. (And Estonia is the new France.)...- Vladimir Putin may be a madman, but at least he has the common sense not to want to be obliterated in a nuclear war with NATO....- Speaking of Putin, stick a fork in him. He may not be quite done yet, but he will be soon… and besides if anyone deserves to have a fork stuck in him, it’s Putin....- ...Ukraine’s masterful use of social media has played a major role in shaping global public opinion about the war...- Ukraine is already in the EU and NATO whether you (or Russia or Turkey) like it or not....- With friends like Turkey, Israel, the global South and Elon Musk, who needs enemies?...- And the most important lesson of all is, as it will be for the remainder of this century, everything is always about China....
... the prospects of a Ukrainian winter offensive, once widely anticipated, are pretty much nil. There’s no reason to waste lives and material when heavy Western armor is on its way, while the U.S. drills Ukrainian commanders on combined arms operations in Germany’s training fields.Ukraine has gotten this far because it has always worked to undermine Russia’s logistics. It’s why they are screaming for longer-range rockets, to hit Russian ammo depots further behind enemy lines and force those supplies even further back. Ukraine’s success in shrinking the active front line is also its great challenge, as Russia squeezes more men into a smaller space.But Ukraine won't win by killing 300,000 Russians. It will do so by cutting off their food and ammunition. Russia lost the war because of logistics, and Ukraine will win it for the same reason.
The world is still in awe of Ukraine:
I made a compilation of videos showing the Ukrainian flag being raised over liberated territories.— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) February 24, 2023
We will liberate every inch of our land. Our flag will fly high and proud all over Ukraine.
Glory to Ukrainian Defenders! pic.twitter.com/vaUhU638qL
One year ago the absurd war against Ukraine began. Let us remain close to the tormented Ukrainian people, who continue to suffer, and let us ask ourselves: has everything possible been done to stop the war? Peace built on rubble will never be a true victory.— Pope Francis (@Pontifex) February 24, 2023
Not only is Ukraine now a player on the world stage, but Russia's reputation as a world power is in ruins.
Paris - London - New York— Tanya Kozyreva (@TanyaKozyreva) February 24, 2023
Globe of UKRAINE 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/FM7ai7zHT9
This war has also shown the world who are the assholes are in America:
A year ago, Europe spent about $1 billion a day to pay for gas, oil, and coal imported from Russia.— Bloomberg (@business) February 24, 2023
Today, it pays a small fraction of that amount https://t.co/N97YDTBLKy
Even the GOP leadership is now making it clear where they stand:
Tucker Carlson calling Zelensky a "Ukrainian pimp."— James Surowiecki (@JamesSurowiecki) February 24, 2023
It's been said before, but Tucker is a modern version of Father Coughlin - faux-populist rhetoric wedded to hardcore RW economics and an embrace of authoritarianism. History will look no more kindly on him than in Coughlin. https://t.co/ZI9e5wRLAz
As positive as I am about the likely victory of Ukraine in this war, I am still very concerned about the significant risk of a wider or world war. It appears that Russia thinks it can exhaust Ukraine to win this war -- but I think they will only find another example of some chicken, some neck:
It is not just charity for the U.S. and our NATO allies to help supply Ukraine. It is a direct investment in our own core interests. Our security and prosperity are intertwined with a stable Europe. And our partners in Asia say China is closely watching how Ukraine plays out.— Leader McConnell (@LeaderMcConnell) February 24, 2023
As Russia gets more desperate, China is licking its chops:
British intelligence thinks that Russia no longer hopes to seize the Donetsk and Luhansk regions by military means, but is simply trying to exhaust the Ukrainian army and economy. Russia believes it's possible due to an advantage in manpower and equipment. pic.twitter.com/HrdEA8y2W6— NOËL 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) February 24, 2023
Iran is trying to leverage the war too:
So if this ends up happening there's going to be a lot of people who will try to argue that it's justified because the West is supplying Ukraine with arms and that makes it "fair" and I want to stress how that is a psychopathic position https://t.co/VJX9FacxW1— Sam (ABeardedPanda) (@ABeardedPanda) February 25, 2023
Often I describe these times as "history galloping riderless across the landscape" - we can't control it and we don't know how to stop it. Alex Coleville's eerie painting "Horse and Train" illustrates this point.
& those concerns are certainly becoming realized. & this defense cooperation is not only not good for the people of Ukraine..but certainly, it's not good for the Middle East, as Iran will seem to...get Russian military capabilities to bolster their military power in the region.— Laura Rozen (@lrozen) February 24, 2023
I first talked about this in a post back on April 5, when I read an interview between The Atlantic's Tom Nichols and Russia expert Thane Gustafson, talking about the unpredictability of Putin's war.
...This is one of those moments when history suddenly goes into overdrive and outcomes become unpredictable, mainly because at such times they are driven by the actions of individuals. I rather like the metaphor once used by former Spanish Prime Minister Felipe González, who said that history seems to be “galloping riderless across the landscape.”
... it’s not too hard to reconstruct at this point what was likely going through Putin’s mind as he gave the order to attack.First, he thought he could make a lightning strike at Kyiv and install a puppet.Second, he thought he could seize what he calls “Novorossiya” as far as Odesa and absorb Kharkiv, Dnipro, and Mariupol.Third, he thought that in those places, which are largely Russian-speaking, he would be welcomed.Fourth, he knew that he could not conquer western Ukraine, and he never intended to try....In sum, he counted on a quick, easy operation: strategic objectives achieved, equilibrium restored, done and dusted....on this reasoning, Putin was not nuts, not deranged, not isolated, etcetera. It was all a reasonable bet—by his strange lights—except that every one of the premises turned out to be wrong.
...War is like an infection: A bacterial attack causes inflammation (damaging in itself), and the mounting immune responses can escalate out of control if the infection is not defeated. The flow of volunteers and weapons into Ukraine, the mounting frustration and fury in the Kremlin, the calls for no-fly zones - I don’t know how this ends.
On a side note, the bravery of the reporters and photojournalists who have travelled to Ukraine to cover this war is also outstanding - and the loyalty of the Ukraine journalists who are with them:
Here’s the Trudeau interaction with an anti-vax protestor at the Ukrainian vigil in Toronto. He really snapped back at the individual who was shouting at him for stealing freedoms. pic.twitter.com/RYQx4LR2Yj— Ahmar Khan (@AhmarSKhan) February 25, 2023
I am ending this post with some of the photos from Ukraine that I will never forget - they are all from the posts I made last spring about the courageous Ukrainian experience of this war.
Today is Ukraine’s military journalist day. I salute the bravery of reporters, fixers, operators who risk their lives.— Serhii Sobko (@SerhiiSobko) February 16, 2023
In this photo by @DubchakA in March 2022, Oleksandr, a @TDF_UA fighter in Irpin, protects @nytimes’ @lynseyaddario from the fragments of a Russian shell. pic.twitter.com/MKsMrBGiQH
7-year-old Angelina, just arrived from Russian-occupied territory pic.twitter.com/3jxeI8FcXd— Matthew Luxmoore (@mjluxmoore) May 2, 2022