Friday, March 11, 2022

Today's News: Hunkering Down

When you're waiting at a pile of sandbags for an invading army, why not just play some music?  

I get the impression today that we are realizing there may not be a quick end to the Russia Ukraine War - the easy answer of a No Fly Zone is not happening, and it wasn't an easy answer anyway.  The Russians aren't advancing much but they're not retreating either. So it will grind on. 
It will, I believe, now depend on whether Ukraine can keep holding on as arms deliveries from the West increase but as daily life for Ukrainians becomes more and more difficult. Food and medicines, for one thing -- if there are going to be any trucker convoys in Europe, then maybe they should be focusing on how to deliver food and supplies to Ukraine cities.
And while I am no supporter of No Fly Zones, but maybe those food convoys could be protected from attack on Ukraine highways by Western airpower - a type of "defensive corridor" NFZ, if you will.
But I digress.  For today, here is the map from ISW - virtually the same map as yesterday:
And from their daily report:
The likelihood is increasing that Ukrainian forces could fight to a standstill the Russian ground forces attempting to encircle and take Kyiv. Russian forces also appear to be largely stalemated around Kharkiv and distracted from efforts to seize that city. Russian advances in the south around Mykolayiv and toward Zaporizhya and in the east around Donetsk and Luhansk made little progress as well in the last 24 hours. Russia likely retains much greater combat power in the south and east and will probably renew more effective offensive operations in the coming days, but the effective reach and speed of such operations is questionable given the general performance of the Russian military to date.
Seth Abramson released his major article tonight and it is excellent though depressing read - his basic thesis is that the West is already fighting World War Three (aka Cold War Two) against Putin, and the war won't stop until Putin is dead or deposed. 
Best to read it for yourself:
His 10 truths will be difficult for us all.
Here's another interesting article that might help explain why Ukraine is able to fight so well now: Another interesting thread: And several news reports today: I still get the impression that some people under 40 aren't getting it yet: Some funnier stuff:







And because yesterday was International Women's Day: Here's a fascinating story: Here's a little language lesson:
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Thursday, March 10, 2022

Today's News: Threading the Needle

Undeniably, the coming days and weeks of the Ukraine Russia War will prove to be the most important challenge in world history since Operation Overlord in 1944. 
The West is trying to save Ukraine without declaring war on Russia. 
That is a difficult needle to thread, and it will get harder as the weeks go by. 
I suspect that's mainly why Trudeau, Anand, Freeland and Joly went to Europe this week, to communicate directly with European leaders and strategize for how the West can protect democracy and defeat Putin without embroiling the world in Armageddon. As usual, the National Post just can't stand it. 
They really hated hearing about how popular Trudeau is in Europe -- 45 minutes with the Queen! Cheers in Latvia! and in Berlin! So they have been trying to re-cast the trip as just another Trudeau photo opportunity (I refuse to link to their so-called "opinion" pieces). 
And then of course here comes the CBC, trolling obediently behind, sniping about the "taxpayer dime" when the world is facing World War 3. 
This is CBC reporter Travis Dhanraj's whiney tweet this morning, trying to justify his cringe-worthy question to Freeland and Joly - a question that was ratioed so unmercifully that he finally had to follow it with a mealy-mouthed sort-of apology: And when you've lost Robin Urback.... Getting back to the real world -- the war -- it was a hard, sad day. The destruction of a Ukraine hospital dominated the news, and the stories from refugees are incredible, in both good ways and bad: When we look back on that phone call between Trump and Zelenskiy, it seems like it was from another, safer world: Again today -- because people are wringing their hands and can't think of anything else to do -- we keep hearing the No-Fly-Zone-NOW! drumbeat. 
Once again the US and NATO have had to respond that it is both unnecessary, and dangerous: I was glad to see China is starting to acknowledge that this is endangering us all: Finally, something a little humorous:
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Wednesday, March 09, 2022

Today's News: Maybe Russia could just declare victory and leave?

I was all excited earlier today when it looked as though Poland and the US had an airplane deal worked out. 
But that doesn't seem to be the case tonight. 
One thing is certain: Biden will do what he can to stop Putin's war of aggression, but he will not be stampeded into actions that could backfire on the security of the west. 
Which means the No Fly Zone continues to be a non-starter - and finally today, I didn't see as many people chattering like the NFZ was the only possible military tactic whose success would be instantaneous, guaranteed, and innocuous.  
In the meantime, the enormous volume of arms deliveries continue:
NATO is not fucking around either: Russia is not winning: Gas prices are rising in the US and I think Biden is rightly concerned that the economic pain will dampen US support for Russian sanctions and other support for Ukraine if the war grinds on. There was news today that Biden has tried to talk to Saudi Arabia about increasing oil production but Saudi Arabia brushed him off. Bad idea: And on a side note, here's a great thread about how Americans can deal with higher gas prices: One thing that worries me about Putin is his ego may not let him give up irregardless of what damage Russia is enduring: But there was also other news today of hints from Zelenskiy that the war could end if Putin would settle for keeping the break-away regions he already has - basically, declare victory and leave. 
This might be a deal that both the Ukraine and Putin could live with: Here in Canada, Jason Kenny's contribution to the international relations discussion during such a fraught time ---- is to whine about how mean everyone is to poor poor Alberta: Finally, here's one tweet that really startled me today -- basically, its been a hell of a winter for all of us:
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Tuesday, March 08, 2022

Today's News: Poetry of a sort

There's a lot of news and tweets about the Ukraine-Russia War, so I am now following three Twitter Lists: 
From The Horse Whisperer: Ukraine Coverage 
I think maybe the war is going better for Ukraine now. 
They're getting some of the help they need:
I don't know if we can conclude quite yet that Russia is losing. But today, they ain't winning: I'm reading more analysis tonight and I don't think my optimism for Ukraine's success is just a dead cat bounce: Here is this, for International Women's Day - I don't think these women are going to be interested in helping Russia pretend to win the war: And I am even finding today some poetical moments of hope: And another great Rae tweet -- that Lavrov statement was utterly bizarre: And finally, this is just so great:
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Monday, March 07, 2022

Today's News: Return of the Red Phone

Our son asked me yesterday what it was like to live in the time of the Cold War.
That's when I realized that for him, the threat of nuclear annihilation was ancient history. 
Our children didn't have to grow up like we did, in a world undergirded by terror, one where everyone's life and future were predicated on the hope that neither the American President nor the Russian Premier would go crazy and take the world with them.
They had a Red Phone, you see. 
It was for the leaders of US and Russia to talk to each other directly, whenever there was such high international tension that it risked nuclear war, so tempers could cool down and wiser heads prevail. They set up the Red Phone after the Cuban Missile Crisis with the idea that Cold War should never again get so hot   And apparently the next 30 years were less risky, though there were other close calls that we knew little or nothing about at the time. 
For more than 45 years, from 1945 to 1991, just about every element of world international relations was based on the Cold War -- your country's "side" was the single factor that determined just about everything else that happened to you in the world. 
Anyone under the age of 40 really has no idea what it was like. Profoundly discouraging, really, to realize how easily it might start up again. 
So hey, everybody, as if the 2020s couldn't get any worse -- welcome to the Spring 2022 semester of Return To Ancient History 101: Let's Find The Red Phone Again!
Come to think of it, I really really HOPE there is still a Red Phone tucked away in a drawer in the White House and another in the Kremlin, so Putin and Biden can talk to each other and maybe figure out how we can save Ukraine while still ratchetting down the NFZ hyperbole and the WW3 hysteria. 
As I recall, one of the ways we used to do that was to figure out some mutual work-around that would make it look like each side had "won" something, so everybody could walk away with their heads held high. 
So maybe that will be the next step here -- can Biden figure out how both Putin and the Ukraine can "win" in this conflict? I'm not sure.
Getting back to today, from my reading of tweets, it appears Russia is divided internally over this war too -- thousands of Russians are protesting even though they are getting arrested, but many other Russians are showing support for the war, and the large white "Z" symbol has become their version of the MAGA hat or the "Q" symbol.
Here is a fascinating though very lengthy thread about what Russians are thinking and experiencing: And more history here: The No Fly Zone discussion continues here: One critical question about how this war will progress may now be this: where does China fit? Will they end up supporting Putin's aggression or will they remain somewhat neutral? 
Here is some discussion about this: Finally, on the lighter side: I hope David Frum's wife Danielle Crittenden is right: On other topics, I saw some interesting tweets about "living with" COVID and what this could mean -- here's a good thread: Here's an interesting though discouraging VOX article about the two-century-old roots of "anti-vaxxers":
 Whether in the 19th century or today, it should be no surprise that vaccines, more than other medical advances, require trust and conversation, and sometimes inspire intense resistance. 
 “People are healthy when you give it to them, and it’s asking them to accept this to protect them from a danger that may or may not happen to them,” Colgrove said. In some ways, communication around vaccines encapsulates the problem of public health as a field: “The benefits that it promises are invisible,” Colgrove said. “When it succeeds, you’re not aware of it.” 
 The challenge, then, is to convince people to trust the public health system enough that they will accept a treatment whose benefits they may not see right away — or ever. History shows such trust is possible, but it has to be earned. And when that trust is broken, it may take generations to repair. 
  And if your vocabulary needs a boost:
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Sunday, March 06, 2022

Today's News: Small Mercies

Thank heaven for small mercies, at least -- because as awful as things are, at least TFG (The Former Guy) isn't still president: What an ass! Compare and contrast with how Biden is handling the uncertainty and danger of these times: Such admirable courage in Ukraine: Lots of thoughtful articles and good tweet threads today, with fresh information and insight: Options for helping Ukraine are limited, but Biden is working as hard as he can to find some: When the going gets tough, the tough get trolled on twitter:
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Saturday, March 05, 2022

Today's News: Oops

I deleted one of my tweets today. 
It was, of course, about the situation in the Ukraine and in it, I supported the NATO decision not to implement a No Fly List, also criticizing Ukraine's negative reaction to NATO's decision. 
But as the hours went by, and I got some people criticizing me and some supporting me, I came to the conclusion that my opinion was likely wrong, or at the very least, too slapdash and not nuanced enough: All in all, I was reminded of the pinned tweet from the great Charles Pierce: Yes, we definitely do need to escape that, don't we.
And now, on with the news for today:
In the good news category, aid is now reaching Ukraine. And file this under the category "There ain't nobody here but us chickens":
And Ottawa is absolutely furious tonight:
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Thursday, March 03, 2022

Today's News: Holding on

That much-discussed convoy to Kyiv doesn't seem to be getting there very fast: Here's the latest Conspiracy Theory that Russia is using to try to explain this war to its own people: And just in case you didn't already notice.... And in Canadian news, here's the zombie bite question:
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Wednesday, March 02, 2022

Today's News: Two remarkable politicians

Two remarkable politicians are earning the world's gratitude: Joe Biden and Chrystia Freeland. 
Biden's State of the Union was tonight and he deserves the credit he is getting for rallying the world to defend Ukraine. I don't think there is any other American politician who could have done it, even Clinton or Obama. Chrystia Freeland is getting credit for rallying the world to go to war against the Russian economy. The Russian economic sanctions have had another positive effect - a vast reduction in those tiresome social media right-wing trolls and bots, because nobody is paying them anymore: On a side note, here's the Saskatchewan edition of Things that Make You Go Hmmm.....all of a sudden, Premier Moe's tweets aren't getting thousands of "likes" anymore:
And here's another aspect of the #UkraineRussiaWar that is going to be increasingly important in the next few weeks -- spring: Its worthwhile to point this out, too: Here's today's cartoon (and on a side note, the so-called trucker convoys that were supposed to disrupt the State of the Union speech fizzled): In other news, here's the Thought of the day:
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Tuesday, March 01, 2022

Today's News: the "Before Times" are gone

I tell you, I'm getting very very tired of the 2020s. 
If I could return them for a refund, I sure would.
I had been thinking of the days before March 2020 as the "Before Times" -- when we could enjoy going to stores and restaurants and visiting people and going to the office, without worrying about a dreadful disease that could kill us and our families.
Now I realize the days before February 2022 were actually the "Before Times" -- when we could keep ourselves safe by getting vaccinated and wearing masks and working from home, without worrying about a Russian madman threatening to start a nuclear World War Three.
We don't know how this is going to go, and it's going to take a while before anyone will find out: Meanwhile, the tweets go on and I keep assembling them to post here -- I notice that apparently the people who "did their research" in Epidemiology in 2020 are now doing post-graduate work in Slavic Studies! Today, I noticed a little more realism on twitter, sharing the warning that this isn't going to be a quick or easy conflict.
Every day, I am proud to be Canadian and to have leaders like Trudeau, Freeland, Rae, and Joly: Individuals are figuring out how to do their part: And there is one funny thing about all this -- Fox News and the Republicans are both looking pathetic:
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