Wednesday, April 06, 2022

Today's News: Preparing for the next battle

In some photos from Vice, I was particularly struck by this one, where a religious icon has been set up next to a Molotov cocktail, at a checkpoint near Kyiv.
Now that Russia has withdrawn from northern Ukraine, I think troops on both sides are feverishly moving to the east and to the south. These transfers may take days or weeks -- tweets I read today talked about distances of hundreds of miles, which are lengthy journeys for armoured equipment and tanks. 



But Putin badly needs a victory somewhere, so the impression I got from reading tweets and news stories today was that he might be throwing everything at Ukrainian troops in the Donbas region now - in particular, trying to capture the cities of Izium and Sloviansk, according to the New York Times.

Tuesday, April 05, 2022

Today's News: "galloping riderless across the landscape"


My title tonight comes from this interview between The Atlantic's Tom Nichols and Russia expert Thane Gustafson, talking about the unpredictability of Putin's war.  
And it seemed apt to use Alex Coleville's eerie painting "Horse and Train" to illustrate Gustafson's point about the uncertainty of how this war will end: 
 ...This is one of those moments when history suddenly goes into overdrive and outcomes become unpredictable, mainly because at such times they are driven by the actions of individuals. I rather like the metaphor once used by former Spanish Prime Minister Felipe González, who said that history seems to be “galloping riderless across the landscape.” 
I remember one of the cautionary media articles I read prior to the US invasion of Iraq -- yes, there were a few such articles, not very many but a few -- and it said that nations should always try to avoid history at all costs, because nothing good ever comes from being in an historical moment. And yes, that article was prescient about why the US should never have invaded Iraq. 
But now, here we are in another historical moment in time, where the people involved thought they knew what would happen but they didn't. Gustafson continues:
... it’s not too hard to reconstruct at this point what was likely going through Putin’s mind as he gave the order to attack. 
First, he thought he could make a lightning strike at Kyiv and install a puppet. 
Second, he thought he could seize what he calls “Novorossiya” as far as Odesa and absorb Kharkiv, Dnipro, and Mariupol. 
Third, he thought that in those places, which are largely Russian-speaking, he would be welcomed.
Fourth, he knew that he could not conquer western Ukraine, and he never intended to try. 
...In sum, he counted on a quick, easy operation: strategic objectives achieved, equilibrium restored, done and dusted.
 ...on this reasoning, Putin was not nuts, not deranged, not isolated, etcetera. It was all a reasonable bet—by his strange lights—except that every one of the premises turned out to be wrong. 
When we consider the importance of a few key individuals on the course of this war, I think we can conclude that without Zelenskyy in Ukraine and Biden in the United States -- and without Trudeau and Freeland here in Canada, Johnson in Britain, and courageous European leaders -- then its very likely that Putin would have been successful in his calculations. Gustafson concludes:
...War is like an infection: A bacterial attack causes inflammation (damaging in itself), and the mounting immune responses can escalate out of control if the infection is not defeated. The flow of volunteers and weapons into Ukraine, the mounting frustration and fury in the Kremlin, the calls for no-fly zones - I don’t know how this ends. 
I think the world is now realizing it isn't going to end any time soon. 

Monday, April 04, 2022

Today's News: Good news, of a sort

Russia has now withdrawn from Kyiv and northern Ukraine. Yes, that's the good news today. 
But now the fear is that Russia will be sending its troops and equipment to the southern and eastern Ukraine, making this fight more difficult.


Here's a fascinating interactive piece from the New York Times describing why the Russian attempt to take Kyiv failed so badly:
And maybe their attempt in the south ultimately won't work either: The entire Michael Kofman thread about Russian military preparedness is worth reading:

Sunday, April 03, 2022

Today's News: slaughter of the innocents


This NYT photo shows some of the Ukrainian Odin Unit, including foreign volunteers, in Irpin on Tuesday.(Credit Daniel Berehulak)
There are many more photos online today of the Kyiv suburbs and nearby small towns where Russians have left. But these scenes of tragedy make these photos too painful to post -- so many innocent Ukrainians just executed for no reason, their bodies left where they dropped, in front of their houses. And other photos of numerous bodies along the roads - often people who had tried to escape by car and just shot for no reason.
Just so sad, such pointless death and destruction. It will go down in history as another slaughter of the innocents. These are war crimes. The media are sickened by what they are seeing, as are we all. And tonight I'm also seeing another resurgence of demands that the West needs to do more to help -- though unfortunately, the arguments against this are still just as strong as they were a month ago: \ We'll likely be seeing more of this type of suggestion -- well-meaning, yes, but.... More news: Markos has a significant article posted tonight describing Phase Two of the war -- the Donbas region in the south, where the Ukrainian and Russian armies will likely be fighting next -- the article is too lengthy to excerpt, so just read it for yourself on Daily Kos

Saturday, April 02, 2022

Today's News: "A new day is dawning"


In Rome, Pope Francis apologized this morning for the tragic history of residential schools -- the Canadian delegation including Saskatchewan archbishop Donald Bolen were able to smile together as they danced the round dance in St. Peter's Square. (AFP Getty photo)
The Doctrine of Discovery is described here - basically it is the doctrine invented 500 years ago that allowed European Christian monarchs to claim ownership of non-European lands. The Truth And Reconciliation reports are all posted here 

Friday, April 01, 2022

Today's News: Walking Together


Tonight, I decided to start with this outstanding photo from Alessandra Tarantino, AP, as the visit to the Vatican of Canadian First Nations, Metis and Inuit representatives for healing and justice continues -- I am using the title "Walking Together" because the hashtag #WalkingTogether was also used today in several tweets about the meetings 
Here is an excerpt from Jason Warick's CBC news story continuing the national coverage of this historic visit with Pope Francis to talk about the terrible legacy of Canadian residential schools: 
As a Canadian delegation prepares for its final meeting with Pope Francis in the Vatican Friday, a growing chorus in Canada is hoping Francis commits to immediately remedying the Roman Catholic Church's broken compensation promises to residential school survivors. 
Canadian bishops announced a renewed fundraising effort last fall — $30 million over five years — and say work is well underway. But critics are skeptical. 
Even if that money can be raised, they say it's wrong to make the dwindling number of elderly survivors wait that long. 
They say that if Canadian bishops won't do it immediately, the Vatican should. 
 Although all the full specifics of the Vatican's holdings are unknown, a tabulation of known assets puts them in the tens or possibly hundreds of billions of dollars. 
Survivors say the compensation money isn't for them — it's to fund addictions and mental health supports, job training, recreation, language preservation and other programs for their descendants suffering through intergenerational trauma. 
"It affected my children, my grandchildren. So many are lost," said survivor and mental health worker Audrey Eyahpaise of the Beardy's & Okemasis Cree Nation. The survivors say the Vatican is just as responsible as the local religious orders and dioceses. 
"This has been a struggle for many years. They've been patient. They keep hearing broken promises," said University of Saskatchewan Indigenous studies professor and Peter Ballantyne Cree Nation member Bonita Beatty. 
"It's a hierarchy. They report up to the Vatican. So yes, he [Pope Francis] is responsible for the various arms of his government. He can't just wash his hands of it."
Today's meetings were with First Nations representatives, following meetings earlier this week with Metis and Inuit representatives. Tomorrow is a final public meeting with all the representatives. Move coverage from today:
As a settler, this list hit me in the gut -- it is a list of our shame and sorrow for all of us. 

Thursday, March 31, 2022

Today's News: "I am ready to fight"


Photo: Daniel Berehulak for The New York Times A stray dog accompanied Ukrainian soldiers in Irpin

This map shows Ukraine counterattacks over the last three days: "We are ready to fight for our country, we are ready to fight to the last breath" says a Ukraine commander in this video: But as Ukrainian army forces Russia out, we are seeing the devastation Russia created:

Wednesday, March 30, 2022

Today's News: Strange days indeed

Does anyone remember how, before the US invaded Iraq in 2003, there was a bizarre collection of odd con men characters hanging around the Bush Administration -- Cheney and Rumsfeld were convinced that the Iraqis were so stupid and these guys were so beloved that Iraq would just give them the keys to the kingdom as soon as Saddam was deposed.  It was an attractive delusion because they thought the invasion would go just swimmingly and the American military wouldn't have to do anything more than hold a few parades and go home.
Well, it looks now like Russia had the same delusion about the stupidity of Ukrainians and the cleverness of the group of con men who were going to take over right away -- apparently Russia thought they had a lock on some Ukrainian turncoats who could happily step in to run the country for them as soon as Zeleskyy and crew resigned. 
I'll bet you're not surprised to find that it didn't work out that way.
Markos has a major article tonight about how the Russians apparently thought they had bribed the leadership of many cities of southern Ukraine to surrender as the Russian troops were driving in. No wonder the officers brought their dress uniforms for the parades, instead of packing extra ammo. 
It didn't work - except apparently for one city near Odessa called Kherson, and even these folks have now expelled their turncoat government and taken their city back. 
So the question, which I highlighted above, is whether it was stupidity or betrayal that cost Ukraine the city of Kherson—a loss that is costing them dearly in blood. 
Maybe the answer is simple—did the governor run north, into Ukraine, a coward? Or did he flee south, into the arms of Russia. 
Given the sums of money Russian intelligence was handing out, the latter might be the best bet. 
 But this story is also one of hope, because this could've easily been the story of that entire region of Ukraine, seduced by FSB payoffs, handing over entire cities without a real fight. 
Things might look different if Mykolaiv, Odesa, Zaporizhia, Kharkiv, Sumy, and lots of other smaller cities had taken Russia up on its offers. Instead, Ukraine held fast everywhere except in Kherson, and the rest has been history. 
There may or may not be some peace talks happening soon - nobody quite believes Russia is truthful when it says it wants to pull back from the Kyiv area. But people are edging closer and closer to describing the Russian movement as an actual "retreat". Or maybe not: The Former Guy is trying to make himself relevant again - by asking Putin to make up some dirt about Biden. Would Republicans have wanted Herbert Hoover to ask Hitler for some trash-talk about Roosevelt? Did Nixon publically ask Khrushchev to dish the dirt on Kennedy? 
(And actually, we know now that in both cases there was some scandal to be found.)
But what a scumbag Trump is. He doesn't seem to realize yet that Russia is now a pariah nation: In Canadian news today, First Nations, Métis and Inuit delegates continue their discussions in Rome with Pope Francis about the shame and horror of Canadian residential schools -- Monday the Pope met with Metis and Inuit delegates, today the delegations participated in several tours, Thursday he will meet with First Nations delegates, and Friday with all delegations.
The Vatican has a significant collection of Indigenous sacred artifacts in its museums that should be repatriated:
Finally, on a side note, the slap heard 'round the world is still resulting in some new twitter memes. 
Here's the latest one I noticed:

Tuesday, March 29, 2022

Today's News: Ukraine headlines decline but Ukraine war does not


The Ukraine flag still flies.
As the war enters its second month, and neither Russia nor Ukraine appear to be able to hit decisive blows just now, the news headlines about this awful war seem to be declining. 
But the war itself is not. 
And the Ukraine flag still flies.
First there were reports today that Kyiv was under attack, then reports that the Russians had been pushed back. Then reports that other cities in northern and eastern Ukraine were being shelled, then more reports of push back.  
Not being a military person myself, nor knowledgeable about Ukraine geography or politics, I find it somewhat confusing. Which is why I search always for reporters who seem to have a better grip on what is going on. 
Like, not ones that would write a headline like this:
But these ones seem pretty good: And hey, media -- it's a war. 
Being fought entirely inside the territory of Ukraine. 
Against a vicious and implacable enemy. 
But already we're seeing a smattering of "contrary" news stories, like these ones in the Washington Post today: 
Maybe these are merely news stories, but it wouldn't surprise me if they also prove to be the thin edge of the wedge, as we all know about the media's almost irresistible impulse to "both sides" everything including this war. Here's an incredible story of an American journalist escaping from Moscow in March, with her dog. Here is her story's ending: 
In the two weeks between the start of the war and my departure from Russia, I had wept constantly. I cried when I walked my dog in the park across the street, where I knew every bush and tree and patch of grass; when I sat at my desk looking out at my beloved Moscow courtyard; when I bought bread at my local bakery; when I drove a familiar route along the Moscow River, past the Kremlin, and then homeward along one of Moscow’s central avenues. I couldn’t imagine that it might be the last time I’d see places that had been the backdrop of absolutely everything important that had happened to me in my adult life, where there were so many people and so much that I loved. 
But now work, the novelty of a new city, the daily battle with iPhones and computers, keep me in a continuous present tense. I don’t think about the future beyond next week; I don’t think about the past. Except to realize that even if I can go back to Russia, it won’t be the Russia I loved. Maybe that superstition is right: 
Once you shut the door, walk away and don’t look back. 
In other news, Canadian Indigenous representatives met with Pope Francis today, in the first of several days of meetings to seek healing and reconciliation about the terrible history of Catholic residential schools. Reuters reports
Survivors of Canada's residential schools on Monday asked Pope Francis to guarantee unfettered access to Church records on the institutions where indigenous children were abused and their culture denied.
Francis met for about an hour each with representatives of the Métis and Inuit nations, the first of four meetings this week with Canada's native peoples in what both sides have called a called a process of healing and reconciliation. ....
"It was a very comfortable meeting," Cassidy Caron, president of the Métis National Council, told reporters afterwards, adding that the pope listened attentively as elderly survivors told their stories.
..."He repeated 'truth, justice and healing' (in English) and I take that as a personal commitment so he has personally committed to those three actions," she said. 
"I felt some sorrow in his reactions .... we shared a lot with him," Caron said.
There was a recent discussion I saw on twitter about how our federal government hasn't really done anything much -- which is, of course, not true at all. But I do think many of us get so used to being cynical about government that it becomes a knee-jerk response to denigrate everything governments do as "not good enough!" This thread brought up whether anything is being done about boil-water advisories, so I checked the government webpage -- in spite of the negativity, the Liberal government reports that its success in lifting boil-water advisories on reserves continues to be significant: Here is the most recent government webpage chart describing the progress that has been made on lifting drinking water advisories across the country:
 

The job isn't done yet, but when Trudeau took office in 2015, nothing had been done for years. So this is a remarkable story.
On a lighter note, here is something just sort of unbelievably cute: And if you've got nothing else to do for the next hour or two, follow the responses to this down the rabbit hole: And it reminded me of this hilarious thread:

Monday, March 28, 2022

Today's News: "a war that defies reason"

 

This photo of a broken Russian tank illustrates Hunter's story tonight on Daily Kos -- "Making sense of a battlefield that defies logic in a war that defies reason":

Anyone who says they know what will happen next is lying; there are simply too many moving parts. Russia faces massive logistical challenges, but still has an enormous military and, possibly, enormous stockpiles. A single advance by either side could fundamentally change the shape of the war. The Russian economy is in utter shambles—but Putin may have more reasons to escalate the war, drawing in NATO itself, than he does to retreat. And during all of it, Ukraine's civilians are dying.
Earlier today, Hunter wrote another article about why Russia is torturing Ukraine with pointless shelling of its cities, and concludes the reason is basic cowardice: 
Why are Russian generals firing into Ukrainian cities, at targets that can't and won't fire back? Because it's one of the few logistical operations the grift-riddled, impossibly corrupt military infrastructure can still execute. 
If you're a Russian general looking to show that you're working hard to achieve implausible Kremlin objectives, parking yourself outside Mariupol or Kharkiv and shelling neighborhoods into wastelands of broken concrete is a no-muss path to, if not glory, at least not being called back to Russia in preparation for your fatal "heart attack." 
It's where Russian generals attempt to do almost anything else that the system breaks down. But hunkering down in one place, with a static defensive perimeter and a direct rail, road, or major port to provide supplies and ammunition? That, the generals can still do. 
Some signs also that Russian units may be starting to withdraw:
More discussion today about Biden's speech -- I think we will realize at some point that Biden has been far ahead of many of us in understanding the the war outcome, and he is working to teach us what needs to happen: At Progress Pond, Martin Longman writes Biden knows what he's doing
...Russia is now an isolated, pariah state. It will remain so as long as Putin is in power.  
There can be no lifting of sanctions or concessions of territory (unless Ukraine insists on conceding it), and no reward or face-saving whatsoever for what Putin has done....
This isn’t just some didactic position of America or NATO or the West. Putin is not a viable future leader of Russia from a Russian perspective. He has brought complete disaster upon his country and the only way the country can begin a process of recovery is with fresh leadership. 
They have to bring it about, and hearing the U.S. president make this point clear will help clarify things....
The goal here is for Russia to leave Ukraine entirely, including Crimea and Dombas, and pay serious reparations. The second goal is for Russia to rejoin the community of nations, which means normal diplomatic and economic relationships, and this is simply never going to be possible with Putin in charge. 
Russian business leaders probably understand this. Russian military leadership probably understands this. And they are the ones who will have to remove Putin from power and negotiate the peace.... 
when foreign policy experts get upset that Putin now has less incentive to negotiate, you have to consider how ridiculous it is to think Putin would make the necessary concessions. If he were somehow willing, which is laughable, he’d have to resign in disgrace the next day. What Biden said didn’t change that. 
  And a fascinating interview here: This is brilliant: A remarkable performance at the championships by Ukrainian figure skaters Oleksandra Nazarova and Maksym Nikitin, who prepared in just a month and could not have costumes made: And in other news today: We switched over to the Oscars just as the "Slap Heard 'Round The World" was being broadcast and wow, what a way to derail the entire show. Thousands of tweets later, I saw this one:

Sunday, March 27, 2022

Today's news: Speeches

Some amazing art already from this war. The Kyivan Madonna is based on a photo taken of a mother and baby while they were sheltering in a subway. 
The biggest news of the day was Biden's speech in Poland:
The Atlantic columnist Tom Nichols in his Peacefield newsletter tonight discusses Biden's unforced error in his speech -- the apparent call for "regime change" in Russia. 
... Biden broke his long streak of message discipline during a speech in Poland today, when he added an apparently unscripted ending: “For God's sake, this man”—meaning Russian President Vladimir Putin—“cannot remain in power.” 
The sound that could not be captured by the cameras after Biden spoke was dozens of staffers slapping the palms of their hands against their foreheads. Predictably, the media in America and elsewhere seized on this statement as if it were some new policy or a NATO war aim and asked if the President of the United States was calling for regime change in, of all places, Moscow. . . . 
Biden’s staff lamely offered that the president was saying that Putin “cannot be allowed to exercise power over his neighbors or the region. He was not discussing Putin's power in Russia, or regime change.” . . . 
The United States, as Congressman Jim Himes of Connecticut, a member of the House intelligence committee, later told CNN, does not have a new policy of regime change, and has no overt or covert programs aimed at such a goal in Russia. But the news cycle was already in full swing . . . 
What Biden was doing, of course, was being Joe Biden. He was speaking for all of us, from the heart. One of the more endearing things about the president—at least for those of us who admire him—is that he has almost no inner monologue and regularly engages in the kind of gaffe where a politician says something that is impolitic but true. . . . 
This was not the time for such a moment, and even those who think Biden has exhibited sterling leadership during this crisis should admit that the president’s remarks were an unforced error. . . . 
It is hard to blame Biden for giving in to his famous temper after talking to the people who have suffered from Putin’s barbarism. But the words of every world leader matter right now, and none more than those of the president of the United States. We should now let his remark pass for what it was—an outburst—and get back to helping Ukraine save its independence.
Oh. 
You know, when I heard that Biden had said this, I thought maybe it was some kind of a covert message to anti-Putin forces in Russia that the USA supports their goals.  
But never mind....
And isn't THIS an interesting take on Putin's future, from University of Hawaii political scientist Tim Hogan:
Here's another interesting analysis of what is going on in Russia right now, as they grapple with the Ukraine disaster: The rest of this lengthy thread is also fascinating and worth reading. 

 Speaking of great speeches, here's another one: Good point. But you would likely not figure this out from the news coverage that Trudeau has been getting in Europe -- three full days of stories about how "European parliamentarians" are criticizing him -- yeah, 3 Nazis. Its just parroting of the CPC talking points that they whisper all day every day to every reporter then can find, and people are noticing. 
In his Scrimshaw Unscripted substack article Canadian Media Is Killing Us Too, Evan Scrimshaw writes: 
What do you get when a German Nazi launches into an attack on the Canadian Prime Minister?
According to CTV, a three day news story where you quote her like any right thinking Canadian should give a single fuck what she has to say. 
And people wonder why the Canadian media is so fucking hated.... 
The media can get away with a bad framing once or twice and it can be forgiven and forgotten, but when it isn’t accidental and it isn’t a one-off, you have to start to wonder what the fuck we’re doing here. Why is the Canadian media so willing to carry the water of Huawei’s own Jean Charest but unable to accept that Justin Trudeau should be in Europe during a European crisis? Why is much of the commentariat acting like Charest getting the endorsement of Mike Harris is a gamechanger when Mike Harris’ endorsement of Belinda Stronach in 2004 didn’t do shit – back when people still gave a flying shit what Mike Harris thought? At some point, this stops being mistakes, and it becomes a choice. If your choice is to view criticism of the Prime Minister as legitimate regardless of the source, and to give the candidate you think can beat him an easy ride in the Conservative Leadership race, you’re no longer doing journalism, you’re just doing hackery....
the Canadian media as a whole is attempting to maintain the veil of impartiality while wearing nothing more than a Tory sweater....
If they’re intentionally skewing their coverage to the right, either out of instinct or out of commercial pressure, then they’re scumbags. 
If they’re less aware of how their decisions intersect with each other than a dude with a Substack, then they’re incompetents who need to be shown the exits. 
Either way, the fact is simple – we’re seeing a Canadian media constitutionally incapable of doing its job properly, and they’re not just killing themselves, they’re taking the country they are supposedly serving with them. 
This thread is worth reading in total:
I haven't been following it lately, but #FluTruxKlan Konvoys apparently are still touring around and about, still complaining about I don't know what, and getting in everyone's way. 
Today a convoy group from Quebec apparently set up a secret arrangement with Ottawa Police to get a police escort through the middle of Ottawa, screwing up traffic as they went. 
The Ottawa public -- you know, the people who actually pay the police salaries - were not only stopped by police from blocking the convoy out, but also were the target of condescending police tweets that the police had promised to be nice to the convoy so the people of Ottawa just had to stuff it. 
Ottawa is PISSED! Maybe Trudeau does need to get home before next weekend, so he can save Ottawa again. Time for the PMJT signal!