Today's News: Spring is here

(Image from Daily Kos)

A few weeks ago, in response to someone's tweet about Russia vehicle movements in Ukraine, I replied "Spring is coming". 

It seemed to confuse people - they didn't understand what I meant. 

First, it was a minor homage to the ominous "winter is coming" line from Game of Thrones. 

Second, I also meant it ominously -- I knew Russia had started its war too late, and if Ukraine could only hold out until winter was over and the Ukraine fields were no longer frozen, it would be virtually impossible for Russia to drive masses of tanks and heavy artillery equipment into the fields of Ukraine -- even driving ordinary trucks on their dirt roads would be terrible. 

I think many who live in cities, or who come from different kinds of agricultural areas, have never seen and may not even be able to imagine gumbo mud - the soupy, sticky, thick, slippery, tire-grabbing, wheel- spinning, sink- to- the- axels mud that winter leaves behind in good silty-soiled wheat-growing fields, here in southern Saskatchewan and there, in southern Ukraine. It lasts several weeks after the snow melts and throughout the May rains, before the spring winds dry the fields enough for planting. 

Now that spring has sprung across the southern and eastern Ukraine steppes, Russia is finding out:

You want to guarantee you will fight a stupid campaign? Give yourself a hard deadline to declare victory, after suffering huge losses, in the muddy season, while fighting a determined and increasingly well equipped enemy. The quadrifecta of strategic stupidity. https://t.co/5npZnWlNbx

— Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) April 14, 2022

Mosquito season for those orcs camped outside won’t be too pleasant either

— S;L;A;V;A UKRAINE (@H_e_r_o_i_m) April 14, 2022

Russian media have been lying for years about how strong Russia is and how weak Ukraine is. Now that Russia is losing the war they have lost their minds:

Some people still don’t get it. Russia was great at information warfare which convinced itself that Russia was strong and Ukraine (and its supporters) were soft and weak. The success with the bots helped lead Russia into this disaster. https://t.co/Ks6qk4Z6Zx

— Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) April 14, 2022

https://t.co/hsrilOuRBR

— Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) April 15, 2022

And I was afraid Russia would think it could resort to nukes at some point. I expect the West will not stand for this:

Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council, said that should Sweden and Finland join NATO then Russia would deploy nuclear weapons and hypersonic missiles in an exclave in the heart of Europe https://t.co/SnlxpqNeXk pic.twitter.com/ZkWjZYiRez

— Reuters (@Reuters) April 14, 2022

Vladimir Putin’s “potential desperation” to extract the semblance of a victory in Ukraine might tempt him to order the use of a tactical or low-yield nuclear weapon, William J. Burns, The director of the C.I.A., says, @nytimes reports.

— UkraineWorld (@ukraine_world) April 15, 2022

Finally, I can't seem to find any new information tonight about whether Mariupol still lives or not.

The Mariupol garrison is the story of military valor not seen in Europe since World War II.
Period.

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) April 14, 2022

 

Today's News: Putting on the pressure

Russian warship, go fuck yourself!

In the last two days, we're had news that Ukraine hit an important north-eastern railway line over a bridge outside of Belgorod, Russia. Earlier, we heard they hit a fuel depot also in this city. 

Then today Ukraine scuttled the warship Moskva in the Black Sea south of Odesa -- this was the warship told by the Snake Island squad "Russian warship, go fuck yourself!" in the first days of the war, a moment now commemorated by a Ukrainian stamp.

Seems like Ukraine is hitting at a fairly wide range.

BREAKING: Head of the Odesa Regional Defense and Ukrainian presidential adviser Oleksiy Arestovych confirm the flag ship of the Russian Black Sea fleet, the missile cruiser “Moskva” was hit and on fire following 2 Neptune missile strikes. pic.twitter.com/dLMecCABWl

— Tim McMillan (@LtTimMcMillan) April 13, 2022

Reports of 🇷🇺 #Russia flagman ship cruiser “Moskva” hit by 🇺🇦 #Ukraine & burning in Black Sea. If true, it would be an excellent (almost) instant karma. It’s the very ship to which 🇺🇦 marines told to go f-ck itself in the first day of the war.#StandWithUkraine #ArmUkraineNow

— olexander scherba🇺🇦 (@olex_scherba) April 13, 2022

Never in my worst projections did I envision the sinking of the #Moskva. A tangible victory for Ukraine and a morale killer for Russia. #Neptune

— The Great War & Modern Memory (@ps9714) April 14, 2022

Admitting Ukrainians are better, smarter, faster than 150 million Russians: Priceless

— Jane Hardberry (@FlatTopFenders) April 14, 2022

And Russia is simply furious!

so what they’re saying is they’ll try to decapitate the government in Kyiv, like they did without success for the first six weeks of the war? https://t.co/hGBABOZX3B

— southpaw (@nycsouthpaw) April 13, 2022

Russia keeps announcing that Mariupol has fallen, and it keeps not being true.

"They have not surrendered" - commander of the Georgian Legion (allied to the Ukrainian military) tells me that the fight for Mariupol is not over, despite Russian claims to the contrary https://t.co/29mPxGsJqy

— Mark MacKinnon (@markmackinnon) April 13, 2022

Here’s why Russia is after Mariupol — and why it may not be the game changer it once was - National | https://t.co/YUd7kPD8cD https://t.co/pJraBaPsos

— Cathie from Canada 🇨🇦 😷🏳️‍🌈 (@CathieCanada) April 14, 2022

Increasingly Mariupol is looking like a Ukrainian sacrifice to keep the Russians fixed.

— Dr Mike Martin ⛵️ (@ThreshedThought) April 13, 2022

When Russia finally does defeat Mariupol, this is what it will get:

Look on my Works, ye Mighty, and despair!
Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that colossal Wreck, boundless and bare
The lone and level sands stretch far away. https://t.co/oHlZ3LNv9X

— Cathie from Canada 🇨🇦 😷🏳️‍🌈 (@CathieCanada) April 13, 2022

I won't say this is the first PR war where one side is getting pummeled daily on social media, but I can guarantee you there are enough amazing stories to make this war uniquely accessible to western viewers. https://t.co/uA8QME09sr

— Robert Young Pelton (@RYP__) April 14, 2022

This #Ukrainian lady somehow survived the indiscriminate bombing of #irpin and she will not leave (she takes care of the local strays). She was overwhelmed when supplies arrived. It was such an emotional moment to meet her. There is so much to do here 😔 #nowzadukraine pic.twitter.com/tXjrKVN83L

— Pen Farthing (@PenFarthing) April 13, 2022

And here's an interesting thread, an analysis that the Russian soldiers fighting and dying in Ukraine are from the poorest and most ethnic areas of Russia. Not a single soldier from Moscow has died yet:

What do we know about background and social position of #Russian soldiers, who are deployed in #Ukraine? BBC analysed publicly available info about 1083 Russian servicemen, who were killed in action. Here are some tendencies were found out. Thread

— Olga Ivshina (@oivshina) April 12, 2022

Some other Ukrainian stikes:

A team from Ukrainian SSO blew up the bridge as the Russian military column from the 201st Military Base was crossing it while headed to Izyum. https://t.co/jKUSXj4Rxq https://t.co/BI2V7QFq1k pic.twitter.com/jvL9nD2jNo

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) April 14, 2022

More to come:

BREAKING: The Biden administration will share intelligence with Ukraine that will help them hit targets in Crimea and the occupied territories of Donbas, WSJ reports citing Pentagon sources.https://t.co/9F4xcYJtrg

— Faytuks News Δ (@Faaytuks) April 13, 2022

Today's news: More American support

I love this photo, from this tweet.

Carefully and cautiously, the United States appears to be taking a larger and more direct role in the Russia Ukraine War. 

I'm not sure whether this will end up being a good thing for Biden and the world -- Jen Psaki has been very clear at the White House press podium that US voters didn't elect Joe Biden to make war on Russia, and of course there's that pesky risk of nuclear armageddon! -- but Biden and most western leaders now appear to be on the same page, agreeing that Ukraine is their line in the sand, that Putin cannot be allowed to win this war if Ukraine can prevent it, and that Ukraine actually will be able to prevent it if they get more military help. Tonight all over twitter and in articles across the internet, I'm seeing an increasing concensus on the crucial importance of timely military aid.

President Biden is escalating his language. Started with “war crimes”. Stepped up to Putin is a butcher. Now he is calling it what it is. #Genocide worst hashtag ever. https://t.co/PNi2TDKsF8

— Barbara Malmet (@B52Malmet) April 12, 2022

Biden: I called it genocide because it has become clear that Putin is just trying to wipe out the idea of even being able to be a Ukrainian pic.twitter.com/h4SBfDQuFW

— Acyn (@Acyn) April 12, 2022

The US military is taking a more active role too:

It appears as if the Switchblade drone transfer helped move U.S. policy in this direction, and that the U.S. is finally preparing its military assistance for the reality of a longer war in Ukraine. Lithuania's training proposal got a big win from this too. pic.twitter.com/MswMKdMfQJ

— Samuel Ramani (@SamRamani2) April 12, 2022

UPDATE: Defense official says tonight that helicopters will NOT be in this next package, despite earlier discussions they would be. As our initial story says, there was uncertainty over what would make final cut.

Other systems, including artillery and Humvees, appear to be a go. https://t.co/6fYFmXeTb2

— Dan Lamothe (@DanLamothe) April 13, 2022

Today's news: Just a few items tonight

 

Photo from this tweet.

I wasn't feeling very well today -- I did my first rapid test, luckily negative (though then I read this, so we'll see) -- but for safety's sake I decided not to go out and so I just got some extra rest, so I didn't get much reading done. 

But here's a few interesting items:

From Ukraine:

No major changes in the overall military situation in Ukraine since April 8.

- Russian and Ukrainian forces are in the process of repositioning/regrouping for the next phase of the war in Donbas.

- Situation in Mariupol is reaching a critical stage.

map: @Nrg8000 pic.twitter.com/puWcNUh954

— Franz-Stefan Gady (@HoansSolo) April 11, 2022

Ukraine has undermined Russian air superiority and this is still crucial for the fight:

By minimising Russian air power to a significant degree as a tactical weapon, the Ukrainians have made the rest of their strategy possible. Can’t over-emphasise this.

— Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) April 11, 2022

No they are not, both Stinger and Starstreak are short range weapons, you want to mix those with longer range systems that can trouble Russian aircraft from much further out. Also add in a fixed wing threat and it has made the Russians quite tentative. https://t.co/WTi8GhZKWB

— Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) April 11, 2022

There were some awful reports today of a chemical weapons attack in Maruipol, which hasn't yet been confirmed. But here's what Twitter expects:

Russian media in the next 12 hours:
- There were no chemical weapons
- The footage is fake
- Azov did it
- It’s a Western provocation
- The world hates us
- This is why we must destroy Ukraine

— Dr. Ian Garner (@irgarner) April 11, 2022

Here is an incredible story - read the whole thread:

As #Chernihiv was under siege & ferocious bombing, Tanya snuck out via a rowing boat to get to Kyiv & back to legalise her charity that was feeding the city. Under heavy shelling her team repaired generators,found an industrial drill & actually dug a well https://t.co/OqgJj7qjvr

— Bel Trew (@Beltrew) April 11, 2022

Today's News: Doing whatever we can to help Ukraine

A Paris painting by street artist Seth (photo by Chesnot).

It struck me today just how many people around the world are doing whatever we can to help Ukraine. 

For example, like the European street artists in the story linked above.

And like myself -- I'm a retired administrator half a world away from Ukraine. But I do have the time and experience to read through a wide variety of stories and tweets every day and create a blog summary that I hope is useful as a reference. 

And like actor Sean Penn - he was in Ukraine for months before the war started working on a documentary about Zelenskeyy and he just gave a fascinating interview to Hannity (spit!):

Friends, a very interesting watch. Sean Penn and Sean Hannity. Sean Penn saying what is. Sean Hannity trying to shame and blame. A person who is doing and a person who is spinning. Much respect to Sean Penn. https://t.co/WwIgwlKyvO

— John C. Carver (@johnccarver) April 11, 2022

And like Chef Jose Andre, who cooks. He goes anywhere he is needed, so people in the midst of disaster will still have something to eat-he has a massive organization now, 

World Central Kitchen, and it is now active in Ukraine:

The @WCKitchen team in action in Kyiv! They are at our warehouse filling up a truck to be sent to Hostomel—which was occupied by Russian troops until recently…Each bag contains nearly 20 pounds of food for families who have been living in basements for weeks. #ChefsForUkraine 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/goHYpeIqLp

— José Andrés (@chefjoseandres) April 9, 2022

And like Pen Farthing, a former British soldier who now rescues dogs - he got several hundred 

animals out of Afghanistan last summer, and I just saw today that he is travelling in Ukraine to 

rescue abandoned pets:

Now my opinion is that the west needs to do whatever it takes to stop #russia & I am 100% fully aware what the ultimate consequences of that could be. But where will #putin stop once he has #Ukraine️ ? We cannot let that madman kill innocent people on this scale & do nothing 😔 pic.twitter.com/snUmgcf8LI

— Pen Farthing (@PenFarthing) April 10, 2022

In today's news, Hunter observes that the new plan that Russia is using to defeat Ukraine at Dondas is pretty much the same plan they tried to use to defeat Ukraine at Kyiv. 

And they failed: 

 In principle, Russia's new plan appears to be to sweep south from Izyum and north from the Mariupol region to capture all or most of Donetsk and Luhansk, cutting off the dug-in Ukrainian positions that have held stable in the war against Russian-backed separatists for years. 

 In practice, this all relies on Russian commanders showing skills that they haven't yet shown, marshaling forces on a scale they haven't yet been able to marshal, the protection of supply lines longer and more tenuous than the ones that quickly fell to pieces around Kyiv, all with a makeshift assemblage of battered troops pulled from other offensives and, theoretically, mercenary forces pulled from elsewhere. 

Yes, Russia has a new general now, but Hunter isn't impressed: 

It's unclear what new order this new Russian general is being installed to impose, but a campaign of shelling cities, destroying granaries and missile strikes on crowds of fleeing civilians is something that all the other Russian generals have been accomplishing very well on their own. It may only be another name to pin the resulting war crimes to, in the aftermath of all this. 

 If Gen. Dvornikov doesn't fall out of a Moscow window a month or two from now, of course. 

I thought this was a perceptive observation:

you don't know the names of those making the world's history now. Not Biden, Macron, Scholz. Not even Zelensky. But: Ukrainian soldiers on the frontline. Everything now depends on them. How the world will look look like in 1 year, 2 years, 10 years: all this depends on them

— UkraineWorld (@ukraine_world) April 10, 2022

More news from today: 

Today's News: "An opportunity to forgive"

I just saw this great photo from Brandi Morin's great piece last week in the Toronto Star, 

showing Dr. Wilton Littlechild celebrating in Rome after Pope Francis apologized for the residential schools. 

Morin writes:

I ran outside to the square after the apology, and the weight was suddenly lifted from my shoulders. The atmosphere had shifted. The sun had burst past the rain and the sounds of Indigenous songs echoing through the plaza reverberated in my heart synchronizing with every beat of the drums.

Dr. Wilton Littlechild, from my home territories in Treaty 6, Alberta, stood up from his walker and joined the dancing, grinning from ear to ear. It was his 78th birthday. 

He was taken to residential school at age six and endured all the atrocities of evil there. A former commissioner of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission which called for this apology in 2015, he had personally heard the tormenting accounts of abuse from nearly 7,000 survivors across Canada.

He lived to see this day after decades of unrelenting advocating for Indigenous rights around the world and petitioning the Catholic Church for an apology. And it was a wondrous thing to see him celebrating.

This is the first step in reconciliation with the Catholic Church, but it’s an extraordinary step. Because now there is hope for healing, now reconciliation with the church can begin and healing within our communities. 

As Littlechild told me, “How do we move forward with reconciliation? Once you’ve had the apology you have an opportunity to forgive. I think that piece (was) still missing and that’s why our communities are still hurting. Then, with an apology, people will begin to feel a sense of healing. And once that happens a new emotion originates — a sense of justice. To say ‘Yes, wrong was done to me. I’m forgiving now and going to heal and I feel justice has been done.’ ”

Planning for the Pope's visit to Canada is already underway:

Location scouting for papal visit begins in Iqaluit | CBC News https://t.co/WJPIfXXXtm

— kathy mahar (@kathymahar) April 9, 2022

Moving to Europe, here's some good news:

Privately, NATO & US officials say they would be thrilled to see Finland and Sweden join, saying they’d be a huge military and intelligence asset. Some officials commented ironically that it would be one of the best things Putin has done to harden European security. W/@jmhansler

— Natasha Bertrand (@NatashaBertrand) April 8, 2022

Today's News: Odds and ends

Tonight's photo: the children's play area at Warsaw's Museum of Modern Art. The Museum has transformed itself to aid Ukrainian refugees

Tonight I don't have much that is "new" in the Russia Ukraine War -- just a miscellaneous collection of odds and ends, tweets and stories. 

Overall, Ukraine has been making some more progress, but so has Russia. 

First, Russia is perhaps getting its act together a little better now, compared to the chaos in March. But then again, Russia's military objectives are still being distorted by the political demand that Russia wants to declare Mission Accomplished by early May. So the chaos may continue:

Rats. I just wrote in a briefing how coordination issues between Southern and Western MD helped the Ukrainians.
They learn unfortunately... https://t.co/Bl1E72QBwL

— Gustav C. Gressel (@GresselGustav) April 8, 2022

This isn't a good sign:

The Pentagon now estimates more than 40 Russian BTGs are positioned in or near the Donbas region. The estimate was "more than 30" on Wednesday, meaning up to 10,000 more troops have arrived in recent days.
ABC

— Iuliia Mendel (@IuliiaMendel) April 9, 2022

But also, this:

Russia has lost between 15-20% of the combat power it originally had arrayed against Ukraine since the beginning of the invasion, according to the official.

ABC

— Iuliia Mendel (@IuliiaMendel) April 9, 2022

A month ago, at the end of February, I wrote that Ukraine had to find a way to hold on in Kyiv until more arms could arrive from the US and other countries. Now, I feel that way again -- that once again, Ukraine has to find a way to hold on in the Donbas until more arms can arrive. 

Today's News: "Ukraine is fighting our fight, for democracy"

A fascinating "history" of the Russia Ukraine War:

A day by day timelapse of the approximate situation of the war in Ukraine so far.

The situation at 00:00 UTC each day. pic.twitter.com/8MxF1ndN4y

— Ukraine War Map (@War_Mapper) April 7, 2022

Here's some other interesting pieces today: 

Mark Sumner "Looking behind us now, into history back" 

Amazing piece from NBC What a 11.4 million Ukraine refugee exodus looks like, in maps 

From CNN Drones, phones and satellite technology are exposing the truth about Russia's war in Ukraine in near real-time 

Associated Press Russia’s failure to take down Kyiv was a defeat for the ages

A #Ukrainian lioness with an important message.

Glory to #Ukraine! Glory to the Heroes, women and men ✊🏻🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/Wys3QMooIS

— Canadian Ukrainian Volunteer 🇺🇦🇨🇦✊🏻 (@CanadianUkrain1) April 7, 2022

Today was Budget Day in Canada -- though you would hardly have known it if you only watched CBC and CTV, because neither broadcaster could resist the temptation to continually chop up Freeland's speech with their own hot takes and the gratuitous slams from the Opposition parties.

Wanted to watch this Finance Minister deliver her budget speech. Wanted to listen to her words on direction of this country. Every channel I went to was talking over her like barking seals. Went to https://t.co/nO2wMEUmT7 instead.

— Deb_Prothero 🇨🇦☘🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 (@Deb_Prothero) April 8, 2022

In short, it was a disoriented and dismally biased coverage of the budget. They kept flipping to the opposition as CF was giving her speech. Totally worthless coverage! Our taxes paying their salaries, is a waste of our money. @PresidentCBCRC @cafreeland

— RWS (@RGBAtlantica) April 7, 2022

It was so frustrating we finally switched to CPAC and I'm glad we did because I was just in time to hear her powerful remarks about Ukraine and democracy, and laying out the rationale for why Canada needs to help Ukraine. 

Today's News: Maybe a gamechanger

The Switchblade drones now on their way to the Ukraine Army will likely be gamechangers for the Ukrainian defense. And offense.

U.S. Drones for #Ukraine Will Include Latest Tank Killers.

The newest model versions can destroy Russian tanks & artillery. The Flying Shotgun is part of new $300M Pentagon order. #SwitchBladeDrones pic.twitter.com/fNyfV5Kbx6

— Яро Гісбрехт🇨🇦 (@JaroGiesbrecht) April 7, 2022

Worth adding to this other US story. Ukrainian military at this moment training in the US to operate Switchblades. Now being said openly that Ukr being prepared to operate US systems. https://t.co/NnVrB9Xg2O

— Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) April 7, 2022

Arrival of Switchblade 600s gives Ukrainian forces an opportunity to deal with Russian long-ranged fire capabilities. More important than killing tanks is killing artillery and MLRS batteries. Now the Ukrainian army has the ability to strike these targets easily and effectively. https://t.co/JFumZie99C

— Woofers (@NotWoofers) April 5, 2022

The Switchblades allow Ukraine to target the trains, to prevent Russia from sending reinforcements to its troops.

To kill a dug in a Russian Army in Donbas, you have to destroy its trains.

Take a look at the Donbas area in this railway map.
3/https://t.co/u622E0HpFr

— Trent Telenko (@TrentTelenko) April 5, 2022

A Switchblade 600 with a Javelin warhead is powerful enough to destroy the control section of a rail engine or can be flown into the forward train wheel assembly, blowing it to h--l and causing the derailment of a moving engine.

5/https://t.co/aqVb5ZzEiD pic.twitter.com/7BPRgt1jWU

— Trent Telenko (@TrentTelenko) April 5, 2022

Today's News: Preparing for the next battle

In some photos from Vice, I was particularly struck by this one, where a religious icon has been set up next to a Molotov cocktail, at a checkpoint near Kyiv.

Now that Russia has withdrawn from northern Ukraine, I think troops on both sides are feverishly moving to the east and to the south. These transfers may take days or weeks -- tweets I read today talked about distances of hundreds of miles, which are lengthy journeys for armoured equipment and tanks. 

New map from British Defense Intelligence on Russian positions in Ukraine. In a daily update they note that units withdrawn from Kyiv region are likely to require “significant re-equipping and refurbishment” before being deployed east. pic.twitter.com/4HKMLBjVP0

— Amy Mackinnon (@ak_mack) April 5, 2022

But Putin badly needs a victory somewhere, so the impression I got from reading tweets and news stories today was that he might be throwing everything at Ukrainian troops in the Donbas region now - in particular, trying to capture the cities of Izium and Sloviansk, according to the New York Times.

My latest:
“The Battle of Kyiv may be over, but what comes next is the even more decisive and difficult Battle of Donbas. This fight is likely to define the war’s outcome.”https://t.co/Q8Voa4qBnu

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) April 6, 2022

Today's News: "galloping riderless across the landscape"

My title tonight comes from this interview between The Atlantic's Tom Nichols and Russia expert Thane Gustafson, talking about the unpredictability of Putin's war.  

And it seemed apt to use Alex Coleville's eerie painting "Horse and Train" to illustrate Gustafson's point about the uncertainty of how this war will end: 

 ...This is one of those moments when history suddenly goes into overdrive and outcomes become unpredictable, mainly because at such times they are driven by the actions of individuals. I rather like the metaphor once used by former Spanish Prime Minister Felipe González, who said that history seems to be “galloping riderless across the landscape.” 

I remember one of the cautionary media articles I read prior to the US invasion of Iraq -- yes, there were a few such articles, not very many but a few -- and it said that nations should always try to avoid history at all costs, because nothing good ever comes from being in an historical moment. And yes, that article was prescient about why the US should never have invaded Iraq. 

But now, here we are in another historical moment in time, where the people involved thought they knew what would happen but they didn't. Gustafson continues:

... it’s not too hard to reconstruct at this point what was likely going through Putin’s mind as he gave the order to attack. 

First, he thought he could make a lightning strike at Kyiv and install a puppet. 

Second, he thought he could seize what he calls “Novorossiya” as far as Odesa and absorb Kharkiv, Dnipro, and Mariupol. 

Third, he thought that in those places, which are largely Russian-speaking, he would be welcomed.

Fourth, he knew that he could not conquer western Ukraine, and he never intended to try. 

...In sum, he counted on a quick, easy operation: strategic objectives achieved, equilibrium restored, done and dusted.

 ...on this reasoning, Putin was not nuts, not deranged, not isolated, etcetera. It was all a reasonable bet—by his strange lights—except that every one of the premises turned out to be wrong. 

When we consider the importance of a few key individuals on the course of this war, I think we can conclude that without Zelenskyy in Ukraine and Biden in the United States -- and without Trudeau and Freeland here in Canada, Johnson in Britain, and courageous European leaders -- then its very likely that Putin would have been successful in his calculations. Gustafson concludes:

...War is like an infection: A bacterial attack causes inflammation (damaging in itself), and the mounting immune responses can escalate out of control if the infection is not defeated. The flow of volunteers and weapons into Ukraine, the mounting frustration and fury in the Kremlin, the calls for no-fly zones - I don’t know how this ends. 

I think the world is now realizing it isn't going to end any time soon. 

Today's News: Good news, of a sort

Russia has now withdrawn from Kyiv and northern Ukraine. Yes, that's the good news today. 

But now the fear is that Russia will be sending its troops and equipment to the southern and eastern Ukraine, making this fight more difficult.

Map of the approximate situation in Ukraine as of 20:00 UTC 03/04/22.#UkraineCrisis #UkraineUnderAttack #Breaking #Kyiv #Kharkiv #Odesa #UkraineRussiaWar pic.twitter.com/ssf9JgpTGA

— Ukraine War Map (@War_Mapper) April 3, 2022

Here's a fascinating interactive piece from the New York Times describing why the Russian attempt to take Kyiv failed so badly:

Check out this article from The New York Times. Because I'm a subscriber, you'll be able to read it for free. https://t.co/rOjiDeMmLu

— Cathie from Canada 🇨🇦 😷🏳️‍🌈 (@CathieCanada) April 4, 2022

And maybe their attempt in the south ultimately won't work either:

All the Putin 12D chess theories aside, I've been reading a lot of mil analysts over the last month+ and I haven't seen a single one who thinks you'd plan a military campaign like the one Russia did if you were REALLY trying to capture Donbas and the Black Sea coast. Not one. https://t.co/dlcEjnPhog

— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) April 2, 2022

Lots of debate about whether Putin’s words count or not. This🧵is an example of how Putin’s public depiction of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as no big whoop constrains his ability to bolster his forces. The question is whether the public would support a general mobilization. https://t.co/9aundqKPjV

— Daniel W. Drezner (@dandrezner) April 3, 2022

The entire Michael Kofman thread about Russian military preparedness is worth reading:

Beyond the current battle in the Donbas, if this eventually becomes a prolonged war of attrition, Ukraine seems overall in a more favorable position, but I think the honest answer is 'it depends.' That's my unsatisfactory conclusion thus far.

— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) April 3, 2022

Today's News: slaughter of the innocents

This NYT photo shows some of the Ukrainian Odin Unit, including foreign volunteers, in Irpin on Tuesday.(Credit Daniel Berehulak)

There are many more photos online today of the Kyiv suburbs and nearby small towns where Russians have left. But these scenes of tragedy make these photos too painful to post -- so many innocent Ukrainians just executed for no reason, their bodies left where they dropped, in front of their houses. And other photos of numerous bodies along the roads - often people who had tried to escape by car and just shot for no reason.

Just so sad, such pointless death and destruction. It will go down in history as another slaughter of the innocents. These are war crimes.

We now know that in territories even briefly occupied by Russian troops there was rape, looting, random killings, assaults on schools and hospitals. This is what the Red Army did in central Europe in 1944-45, and apparently nothing has changed.

— Anne Applebaum (@anneapplebaum) April 3, 2022

Seems every war-aged male was executed. Easily 500+ fatalities. Would not be surprised to see a final figure much higher than that, even.

— The Intel Crab (@IntelCrab) April 2, 2022

The media are sickened by what they are seeing, as are we all. And tonight I'm also seeing another resurgence of demands that the West needs to do more to help -- though unfortunately, the arguments against this are still just as strong as they were a month ago:

Russia’s alleged actions in Bucha sadly aren’t new. They’re part of a playbook honed in Chechnya and Syria. Yet remember there are Americans who have been praising and defending Russia and Putin publicly for years. Russian media advertises that praise. Putin is emboldened by it. https://t.co/dpcx6311fu

— Jim Sciutto (@jimsciutto) April 3, 2022

Now that we have seen evidence of mass graves in Ukraine, and pictures of the atrocities against civilians, We should demand @TuckerCarlson answer for his support of this war, as well as those Congressmen who have done the same. @GOPLeader should demand accountability

— Adam Kinzinger (@AdamKinzinger) April 3, 2022

\

The West & NATO did act in response to Russian violence against Ukrainians. It likely contributed to Russia’s failure around Kyiv.
The idea that a lot of weapons + diplomatic support + unprecedented economic pressure amounts to nothing more than prevarication just isn’t accurate. https://t.co/NWB1Garnhz

— Nicholas Grossman (@NGrossman81) April 3, 2022

We'll likely be seeing more of this type of suggestion -- well-meaning, yes, but....

One billionaire could end this war in Ukraine. Of course there are add-ons in arming & maintaining creative runways, etc., but seems worth a think. (2/2)

— Sean Penn (@SeanPenn) March 31, 2022

More news:

The next decisive battle will be in the Donbas where Russian units are regrouping and attempting to push UKR forces out. That’s the front to watch in the coming weeks. How this battle turns will probably inform Moscow's thinking on prospects in a sustained war. 4/

— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) April 2, 2022

I want people to remember videos like this when I've pointed out the supply lines for Russia into Ukraine get longer over time.

It takes constant civil engineering work to keep road & rail lines of communications clear during a war.

Think how you would drive through this mess🤔 https://t.co/hE7YhEBOSC

— Trent Telenko (@TrentTelenko) April 2, 2022

A pack of Ukrainian tractors hunting their prey. https://t.co/qKUo6V62OG pic.twitter.com/HGcAQaPKVD

— ONC3X (@ONC3X) April 1, 2022

"Typically, I've had a couple of months to prepare for trips," one physician said. "But, with the invasion of Ukraine, I got about 11 hours' notice." https://t.co/Gu3kRPrbaB

— ABC News (@ABC) April 3, 2022

Markos has a significant article posted tonight describing Phase Two of the war -- the Donbas region in the south, where the Ukrainian and Russian armies will likely be fighting next -- the article is too lengthy to excerpt, so just read it for yourself on Daily Kos

Ukraine update: Both Russia and Ukraine face difficult choice as Phase II of the war begins https://t.co/s3xkPuaJsn

— Daily Kos (@dailykos) April 3, 2022

Today's News: "A new day is dawning"

After the world bore witness to the unmarked graves of Indigenous children in the thousands last year & ongoing searches, the time has come 2 an doorway 2 healing. Finally the Catholic Church admitted it’s wrongs. Forgiveness couldn’t even begin without it. A new day is dawning.

— Brandi Morin (@Songstress28) April 2, 2022

In Rome, Pope Francis apologized this morning for the tragic history of residential schools -- the Canadian delegation including Saskatchewan archbishop Donald Bolen were able to smile together as they danced the round dance in St. Peter's Square. (AFP Getty photo)

Thank you, @Pontifex. It has caused terrible harm and damage. I hope that this is a chance for healing to begin. It is for me personally, having left the church on hearing of those terrible abuses, a chance perhaps to again find solace in the community of my childhood.

— Kat’s sunflower seeds in wet cement (@KatTapestry) April 1, 2022

Here is the full text of Pope Francis’s apology for residential school. Catholic Church’s role in colonial institutions fills me with ‘indignation and shame,’ @Pontifex says in historic speech at the Vatican https://t.co/TpwL1gaezQ via @globeandmail #Indigenous #reconciliation

— André Picard (@picardonhealth) April 1, 2022

Dr Wilton Littlechild, who has advocated for years 4 the Catholic Church to apologize; was a TRC Commissioner, he’s a survivor of residential schools and now uses a walker-it’s his 78th bday today. He danced in St Peters Square celebrating @Pontifex apology which is momentous pic.twitter.com/8al4YDELAU

— Brandi Morin (@Songstress28) April 1, 2022

Celebrating in St Peters Square with round dancing- locals join in. Lots of smiles, Chief Willie Littlechild is beaming. pic.twitter.com/23Sh6kLmzO

— Brandi Morin (@Songstress28) April 1, 2022

Pope Francis’ apology for the Roman Catholic Church’s role in operating residential schools in Canada would not have happened without the advocacy of Survivors. To those who shared their truths, and relived their painful memories with bravery and determination: Thank you.

— Justin Trudeau (@JustinTrudeau) April 1, 2022

The meetings in Rome this week between Indigenous leaders and the Vatican are historic. The Doctrine of Discovery, Residential Schools reflect a colonial past whose terrible impact must be understood as we seek to overcome it. #UNDRIP

— Bob Rae (@BobRae48) March 31, 2022

The Doctrine of Discovery is described here - basically it is the doctrine invented 500 years ago that allowed European Christian monarchs to claim ownership of non-European lands.

So the Pope has apologized for his Church’s part in the damage done to Indigenous children in Canada’s coercive residential schools. How about he follows this repentance by rescinding the papal bull inventing the even more damaging Doctrine of Discovery? https://t.co/5gmWLM4IZ5

— Meteor_Blades (@Meteor_Blades) April 1, 2022

Friends don't let friends (or family members, co-workers/community members/strangers) do residential school denialism. #TruthBeforeReconciliation

— Sean Carleton (@SeanCarleton) April 1, 2022

The Truth And Reconciliation reports are all posted here 

Today's News: Walking Together

Tonight, I decided to start with this outstanding photo from Alessandra Tarantino, AP, as the visit to the Vatican of Canadian First Nations, Metis and Inuit representatives for healing and justice continues -- I am using the title "Walking Together" because the hashtag #WalkingTogether was also used today in several tweets about the meetings 

Here is an excerpt from Jason Warick's CBC news story continuing the national coverage of this historic visit with Pope Francis to talk about the terrible legacy of Canadian residential schools: 

As a Canadian delegation prepares for its final meeting with Pope Francis in the Vatican Friday, a growing chorus in Canada is hoping Francis commits to immediately remedying the Roman Catholic Church's broken compensation promises to residential school survivors. 

Canadian bishops announced a renewed fundraising effort last fall — $30 million over five years — and say work is well underway. But critics are skeptical. 

Even if that money can be raised, they say it's wrong to make the dwindling number of elderly survivors wait that long. 

They say that if Canadian bishops won't do it immediately, the Vatican should. 

 Although all the full specifics of the Vatican's holdings are unknown, a tabulation of known assets puts them in the tens or possibly hundreds of billions of dollars. 

Survivors say the compensation money isn't for them — it's to fund addictions and mental health supports, job training, recreation, language preservation and other programs for their descendants suffering through intergenerational trauma. 

"It affected my children, my grandchildren. So many are lost," said survivor and mental health worker Audrey Eyahpaise of the Beardy's & Okemasis Cree Nation. The survivors say the Vatican is just as responsible as the local religious orders and dioceses. 

"This has been a struggle for many years. They've been patient. They keep hearing broken promises," said University of Saskatchewan Indigenous studies professor and Peter Ballantyne Cree Nation member Bonita Beatty. 

"It's a hierarchy. They report up to the Vatican. So yes, he [Pope Francis] is responsible for the various arms of his government. He can't just wash his hands of it."

Today's meetings were with First Nations representatives, following meetings earlier this week with Metis and Inuit representatives. Tomorrow is a final public meeting with all the representatives. Move coverage from today:

The First Nations delegation walks through the streets of Rome on their way 2 meet w @Pontifex re: brutality of residential schools-Catholic Church administered over 60%. Children’s lives shattered & taken. Now, survivors & ancestors stop traffic at the birthplace of colonization pic.twitter.com/gl9Gt469BT

— Brandi Morin (@Songstress28) March 31, 2022

Today the Assembly of First Nations @AFN_Updates delegation of survivors, Elders, meet the Pope, seeking an apology. Number 58 of the TRC Calls to Action. It was called for within one year of the TRC’s release nearly 7 years ago. The empty tikinagan. Our missing children . #TRC58 pic.twitter.com/8a4rElwb2l

— Tanya Talaga (@TanyaTalaga) March 31, 2022

A moving song, for children who didn't make it home, ends First Nations delegates' conference foĺlowing @Pontifex meeting. #WalkingTogether @CCCB_CECC@archedmonton pic.twitter.com/NPrhJ84M3G

— Andrew_Ehrkamp (@AndrewEhrkamp) March 31, 2022

Stories told, & justice called for

Lots of hope from #FirstNations delegates as they leave the Vatican today

It’s up to the church, & all Catholics in Canada, to determine what happens next#cdnpoli #skpoli #Indigenous pic.twitter.com/LwCWijAll0

— Max FineDay (@MaxFineDay) March 31, 2022

'I’ve been blown away': Residential school survivors showed courage, resilience and dignity this week as they faced the head of the very institution whose clergy abused them as children, says @Niigaanwewidam.

See more on this episode of Nation to Nation: https://t.co/ccPPn1rTQS

— APTN News (@APTNNews) April 1, 2022

ever come to fruition. But, I stand firm that @Pontifex can’t expect us to pay for his trip here considering the wealth of the church and more importantly it was his religion that caused so much heartache, trauma and loss. A’ho! 🪶😡💔🧡 pic.twitter.com/UAP6lbmhh4

— Indigenous Voices Matter🪶🇨🇦🇺🇦 (@Voic6Indigenous) April 1, 2022

Kúkpi7 Rosanne Casimir of Tk’emlúps te Secwépemc spoke today from Rome about the need to disclose all records & documents related to residential institutions as part of efforts toward healing and justice.
Photo credit: Fred Cattroll #AFNVaticanVisit2022 #CTA58 #walkingtogether pic.twitter.com/mrAJ3ljIGF

— 𝓔𝓵𝓲𝔃𝓪𝓫𝓮𝓽𝓱 𝓛𝓲𝓵𝓵𝔂 (@ChitkwesuManetu) March 31, 2022

The Missionary
The Indian Agent
The RCMP Officer
The Game Warden

“The Four Horsemen of the Indigenous Apocalypse.”
- Ojibway Elder Fred Kelly, Delegation to The Vatican March 2022

— George Nelson (@gnelsonII) April 1, 2022

As a settler, this list hit me in the gut -- it is a list of our shame and sorrow for all of us.