Tuesday, March 15, 2022

Today's News: Extinction Burst

An "extinction burst" is what little kids do when they melt down in a temper tantrum because they can't get what they want. 
From what I am reading tonight, Russia is now trying an "extinction burst" of attacks on Ukraine - Putin is furious that Ukraine won't surrender, and the Russian generals are making a desperation move before they run out of soldiers, ammo, food, gas, and the will to fight. 
Kos pointed out last Friday that Russia has been trying to advance on too many targets all at once, and failing to achieve their goals: 
Russia sucks at logistics, and yet they’re trying to keep a dozen lines of attack operational. Yeah, no wonder they’ve mostly grinded to a halt. Let’s zoom in on that Kyiv and Kharkiv/Sumi axes:  

See that long tendril from Sumi to Kyiv? That exists because Belorussia is north of Kyiv, Sumi is Russian border. It’s easier for Russia to get its supplies into the Kyiv area through Sumi than it is through yet another country. Yet despite being just kilometers from the border, Russia has been unable to take it. And that means that long tendril is 334 kms long (~210 miles), none of it secure, all ripe pickings for Ukrainian territorial defense forces—locals with guns and, increasingly, anti-tank missiles.....A regiment is around 600 soldiers, and [Russia has] shown no ability to mass larger groups for major assaults. One POW was complaining that his unit took more casualties from their own artillery than Ukrainians. Air cover is severely limited, likely for the same reason. Russian communication gear is literally commercial walkie talkies. Their $30 million advanced fighters have Samsung GPS units fixed to their windows. They can’t communicate, they can’t coordinate. This is the sort of thing western militaries practice time and time and time again. It’s expensive! It’s complicated! But our commanders don’t take the money and spend it on Italian villas and vodkas instead. 
Now ponder how Russia is expecting to take Kharkiv (pop. 1.4 million, pre-war of course), Sumy (pop. 265,000), Kyiv (pop. 2.9 million), Odesa (pop. 993,000), Mykolaiv (pop. 486,000) and Chernihiv (pop. 285,000) if they can’t even pull together 1,000 troops for an assault. No wonder they’ve settled on trying to terrorize civilians into compliance!
But Ukraine will not be terrorized, they will not give up, not after what they have been through these last 19 days. 
We are now on day nineteen of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and it remains in something of a holding pattern. Russian airstrikes are ramping up, and no, NATO will still not implement a no-fly zone because it will mean shooting down Russian targets, blowing up air defences on Russian soil, and dragging us into a shooting war with a nuclear power while at the same time not doing anything about ground-based shelling or missile-strikes. 
While sanctions continue to ramp up, the IMF is warning of a massive recession in Russia, which could have bigger international ramifications. 
That says it all in a couple of sentences. 
Here's what we can expect to see now:
Some tweets from today's US Defense Dept briefing: And Russia has no reserves left near the Ukraine borders: Steven Pifer in Bulletin of The Atomic Scientists has an interesting article about the "tacit" rules that the West and Russia have agreed on so far, to avoid crossing "red lines" so that the Russia Ukraine War will not escalate into World War Three. 
First, President Biden, NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg, and NATO member-state leaders have said that, while they will defend NATO territory, NATO forces will not take on Russian forces to defend Ukraine. ....It explains NATO’s decision not to establish a no-fly zone over Ukraine.... 
Second, US and NATO intelligence-sharing with Ukraine appears acceptable under the rules....they have not challenged US, British, and NATO aircraft conducting intelligence and air surveillance missions to look at what the Russian military is doing in, near, and over Ukraine. .... once the Russian military launched its invasion. US and British aircraft no longer fly in Ukrainian air space and appear to take more care regarding flights over the Black Sea. 
Third, the rules permit at least some Western arms shipments to Ukraine. In the weeks before and since Russian forces attacked, the United States, NATO member-states, and others have provided a stream of defense assistance to Ukraine,...the Russians do not like the arms shipments, though they have not acted to interdict them. ...[regarding the offer of Migs from Poland] The European Union, Polish, and US officials aired too much of the Mig-29 issue in public ... The fighters should have just been given to the Ukrainian air force with no public discussion, denying Moscow the opportunity to try to impose a limit on the arms provision rule.... 
Fourth, economic and other sanctions appear acceptable, if disliked, within the tacit rules, even if they went well beyond what the Kremlin might have anticipated. ...Moscow thus far has not wielded what many see as its major counter-sanction: an embargo of oil and gas sales to Europe, which would cause an energy crisis there.... 
But as the days go by, and as Russia increases its attacks on civilians, the suffering is horrific:
These war crimes will not be forgotten or forgiven. 
Here is one interesting "take" from journalist Julian Roepcke, an angle I had not thought of before: Yes, I can understand why Ukraine would not want to give away its territory, especially those provinces that would give Russia a direct access to Crimea and the Black Sea - Putin can strut and call that a victory, though its a far cry from what he actually wanted.
And the so-called "break-away" regions which supposedly already belong to Russia aren't happy with their new Russian overlords, either - people are demonstrating, two mayors have been arrested and illegally replaced; The Resistance in these provinces is just beginning:
There is going to be a significant long-standing effect from this war that I don't think anyone has yet understood -- for the first time, a billion people around the world who are under 40 years old will know what is is like to be threatened by nuclear war. 
  I think - I hope! - that this experience will make everyone put a little more thought and consideration into the quality of the politicians they are electing in the future. Because it matters!
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Monday, March 14, 2022

Today's News: Ukraine perseveres

This is wonderful: We don't know when this war will end. But whenever it is, we are now 18 days closer. 
And here's some good news: Russia is now desperate enough to start asking China for help. And I don't think anyone knows what China will do. Historically China tries to back winners, not losers: Here's an interesting analysis by Hunter over at Daily Kos (By the way, Kos has become one site I am checking every day for its Ukraine news and analysis - it is excellent.)  Anyway, today Hunter notes the news about Russia wanting help from China likely originated from US Intelligence, to put both Russia and China on an uncomfortable spot: 
 Chinese leaders have little to gain from standing by Putin even as Putin loses, cannot risk involving themselves to any extent that would genuinely help Putin to win, and could themselves face unified international sanctions for even attempting it. 
China's only plausible move, according to that analysis, is to abandon Putin and attempt to limit the damage. The current attempts to remain vaguely neutral will only rebound more harshly on China as a desperate Putin attempts to escalate his conflict in an all-or-nothing bid to salvage his nation's stature—and his own skin. 
We can expect U.S. intelligence "leaks" to crop up quickly, if Chinese leaders give the go-ahead to Russia's new weapons requests. It won't go unnoticed. And that means that the United Nations and other nations are now putting China in a position where neutrality can't be faked. China will either provide the weapons or it will not. The nation's frustrated leaders can't stall for time much longer. 
But Ukrainians must be feeling desperate too, as Russian war crimes continue. Hunter describes this as a deliberate strategy: 
The Russian "strategy" of shelling urban centers in an apparent attempt to level what they cannot militarily capture, however, continues. And the civilian death toll is rising rapidly. 
These stories are terrible: And this: Tens of thousands of volunteer soldiers are arriving in Ukraine to help: And the whole world is angry at Russia for what they are trying to do: The DO SOMETHING! crowd continues to bellow, however - NATO, the US and Canada are moving heaven and earth to get arms to Ukraine, but I still see comments deriding them for "doing nothing" because they refuse a No-Fly Zone.  I can understand why Zelenskiy keeps asking for it, but here in the West I am starting to wonder if the NFZ complaint has become just another right-wing political talking point, somethingelse to criticize Biden and Trudeau over. Or do people here actually not understand that the West, while trying to save Ukraine, is also trying to prevent a nuclear war? We're not just playing a game of Risk here.
Its frightening just how nuts this general is: And finally, things do happen in other news too.
Sometimes there is so much going on that it's easy to lose track and let things get forgotten or pushed aside. For example, the FluTruxKlan is still trying to act up, and municipal police are still letting them. Calgary is PISSED! And Trump keeps doing rallies and getting into the news again, and I hate it! It horrified me recently to realize that I am likely going to be hearing about Trump for the rest of my life!  The only good thing about Trump is that he is so stupid - unlike Hitler, Trump himself doesn't know how to lead people nor get anything done, and he can never hire anyone competent either. 
All the same, my soul leaps down every time I hear his name. 
So sometimes I re-read this, from Tiny Fairy Tales, just to help me regain some perspective and because it is so beautiful:


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Sunday, March 13, 2022

Today's News: Stepping on a Lego

I found this image on twitter -- and anyone who has ever stepped barefoot on a lego knows what will happen next:

Many stories tonight projecting Russia's ultimate defeat - provided Ukraine can hang on long enough and the arms keep flowing from Canada, the US and Europe. Cities are just being hammered, and Russia is committing war crimes every day. But here is an excellent article by Bush apologist/ international relations expert Francis Fukuyama: 
Russia is heading for an outright defeat in Ukraine. Russian planning was incompetent, based on a flawed assumption that Ukrainians were favorable to Russia and that their military would collapse immediately following an invasion. Russian soldiers were evidently carrying dress uniforms for their victory parade in Kyiv rather than extra ammo and rations. Putin at this point has committed the bulk of his entire military to this operation—there are no vast reserves of forces he can call up to add to the battle. 
Russian troops are stuck outside various Ukrainian cities where they face huge supply problems and constant Ukrainian attacks. The collapse of their position could be sudden and catastrophic, rather than happening slowly through a war of attrition. The army in the field will reach a point where it can neither be supplied nor withdrawn, and morale will vaporize. 
From CNN:
This whole 25-tweet thread is worth checking but here is the main map showing the situation March 11: Here is an interesting analysis of the Kyiv situation: Another lengthy thread on why Russia's army is not winning: I don't know whether this story is true or not, but it SHOULD be true! I've been seeing so many pictures from Ukraine and here are the ones that affected me the most. 
This used to be a pleasant street: These little angel wings!


This is beautiful:

Finally, this:
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Saturday, March 12, 2022

Today's News: Let's call that hope

Some discouragement in the Russia Ukraine War today, but lets start with some beautiful things:
British Poet Laureate Simon Armitage has written a poem about this war: "Its war again. 
An air-raid siren can't fully mute the cathedral bells. 
Let's call that hope." 
My heart: Journalist Laura Rosen tweets about an interview with military analyst Michael Kofman about what went wrong: Here's some other interesting analyses today: (On a side note, isn't it too bad now that Canada doesn't have any way to organize its international grain sales this fall - a "Canadian Wheat Board", if you will - to help the world out of the coming shortages. What a concept! But I digress...) The more "DO SOMETHING!" hysteria I see, the more I realize what a difficult path Biden and Trudeau and NATO are trying to take here. Its been  2+ weeks since Russia invaded and honestly some of the reaction is reminding me of how we first reacted to Covid two years ato -- a sincere though naive desire to FINISH THIS NOW so we can declare it OVER! This, combined with increasing anger that the powers that be aren't wrapping this up; cynical reactions of "that'll never work!" and "they ain't doing it right!" to everything the West is doing; combined now with justifiable demonization of Putin, who could well be history's greatest monster. 
Here is a couple of negative reactions toward everything NATO is doing for Ukraine: This morning Biden apparently made some remarks warning Russia against trying any chemical or biological warfare false-flag attacks: And this immediately ratchetted up the war drumbeats here in the West to the point that Biden had to clamp it down severely this afternoon: Thus provoking more angry reaction from people who want more done: Maybe Vindman is right - he's certainly more expert than I am. But damn it, I don't want World War 3 to start over this either! I read a very interesting commentary sorting out some of these points by Markos at Daily Kos today:
The argument for doing more is predicated on the civilian carnage we’re seeing in Ukraine. Putin must be stopped, it is argued, to save civilian deaths. 
However, a wider war doesn’t mean fewer civilian deaths, it means more. 
If Russia’s modus operandi is to bombard its foes into submission, what makes anyone think that Russian bombs and missiles would stop falling on population centers? What’s more likely is that they’ll start falling on more population centers. 
Suddenly, capital cities like Warsaw, Vilnius, Riga, Tallin, Bucharest, and Sofia would be in range of Russia-based missile systems, and many more in range via Russian naval and strategic air assets in the Mediterranean, North, and Baltic seas. And that’s not including the Belorussian and Russian civilians who would die on the other side of the line (in case anyone cares). Even if we take nuclear weapons off the table, what’s stopping a desperate Putin from dropping chemical weapons on population centers across the region? 
Are we willing to put tens of millions of new civilians at risk, to feel better about the millions currently at risk? I know this sounds heartless, and especially so to those currently trapped in Russia’s line of fire. But adding a broader international profile to the casualty list doesn’t bring back the victims of Russian aggression. It just adds to them. 
We are doing a lot. We’ve armed Ukraine with modern weapons systems that have allowed it to fight a vastly superior enemy to a standstill. It is that effectiveness that has unleashed death on Ukrainian civilians. Ironically, if “saving civilians” was really the moral imperative, we never should’ve armed Ukraine. 
But of course, that’s not what we’re all fighting for. We’re fighting for freedom and democracy and the right of self-determination, and Ukrainians knew the stakes, and they decided to fight. Our job is to support them in that fight, and make sure they get the most effective equipment for the job. (So not fighter jets, because they’re difficult to maintain and easy to destroy, but new air defense systems that can reach higher altitudes than the man-portable ones currently used so effectively by Ukrainian forces, to name one example.) 
It’s okay to be frustrated and want there to be more to do. But remember, actions have consequences, and in this case, additional civilian deaths. And so we need to manage the situation as carefully as President Joe Biden has thus far. 
Now on to some Canadian stuff:
With the CPC leadership campaign is starting up, here's some good advice that I really hope the party ignores -- because I hope the Liberals can continue their string of victories over the Conservatives and if the Cons select an experienced leader who won't knuckle under to knuckle-draggers this time, then Trudeau will likely have a real fight on his hands to keep those suburban Toronto and Quebec ridings that the Liberals need to maintain their government:
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Friday, March 11, 2022

Today's News: Hunkering Down

When you're waiting at a pile of sandbags for an invading army, why not just play some music?  

I get the impression today that we are realizing there may not be a quick end to the Russia Ukraine War - the easy answer of a No Fly Zone is not happening, and it wasn't an easy answer anyway.  The Russians aren't advancing much but they're not retreating either. So it will grind on. 
It will, I believe, now depend on whether Ukraine can keep holding on as arms deliveries from the West increase but as daily life for Ukrainians becomes more and more difficult. Food and medicines, for one thing -- if there are going to be any trucker convoys in Europe, then maybe they should be focusing on how to deliver food and supplies to Ukraine cities.
And while I am no supporter of No Fly Zones, but maybe those food convoys could be protected from attack on Ukraine highways by Western airpower - a type of "defensive corridor" NFZ, if you will.
But I digress.  For today, here is the map from ISW - virtually the same map as yesterday:
And from their daily report:
The likelihood is increasing that Ukrainian forces could fight to a standstill the Russian ground forces attempting to encircle and take Kyiv. Russian forces also appear to be largely stalemated around Kharkiv and distracted from efforts to seize that city. Russian advances in the south around Mykolayiv and toward Zaporizhya and in the east around Donetsk and Luhansk made little progress as well in the last 24 hours. Russia likely retains much greater combat power in the south and east and will probably renew more effective offensive operations in the coming days, but the effective reach and speed of such operations is questionable given the general performance of the Russian military to date.
Seth Abramson released his major article tonight and it is excellent though depressing read - his basic thesis is that the West is already fighting World War Three (aka Cold War Two) against Putin, and the war won't stop until Putin is dead or deposed. 
Best to read it for yourself:
His 10 truths will be difficult for us all.
Here's another interesting article that might help explain why Ukraine is able to fight so well now: Another interesting thread: And several news reports today: I still get the impression that some people under 40 aren't getting it yet: Some funnier stuff:







And because yesterday was International Women's Day: Here's a fascinating story: Here's a little language lesson:
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Thursday, March 10, 2022

Today's News: Threading the Needle

Undeniably, the coming days and weeks of the Ukraine Russia War will prove to be the most important challenge in world history since Operation Overlord in 1944. 
The West is trying to save Ukraine without declaring war on Russia. 
That is a difficult needle to thread, and it will get harder as the weeks go by. 
I suspect that's mainly why Trudeau, Anand, Freeland and Joly went to Europe this week, to communicate directly with European leaders and strategize for how the West can protect democracy and defeat Putin without embroiling the world in Armageddon. As usual, the National Post just can't stand it. 
They really hated hearing about how popular Trudeau is in Europe -- 45 minutes with the Queen! Cheers in Latvia! and in Berlin! So they have been trying to re-cast the trip as just another Trudeau photo opportunity (I refuse to link to their so-called "opinion" pieces). 
And then of course here comes the CBC, trolling obediently behind, sniping about the "taxpayer dime" when the world is facing World War 3. 
This is CBC reporter Travis Dhanraj's whiney tweet this morning, trying to justify his cringe-worthy question to Freeland and Joly - a question that was ratioed so unmercifully that he finally had to follow it with a mealy-mouthed sort-of apology: And when you've lost Robin Urback.... Getting back to the real world -- the war -- it was a hard, sad day. The destruction of a Ukraine hospital dominated the news, and the stories from refugees are incredible, in both good ways and bad: When we look back on that phone call between Trump and Zelenskiy, it seems like it was from another, safer world: Again today -- because people are wringing their hands and can't think of anything else to do -- we keep hearing the No-Fly-Zone-NOW! drumbeat. 
Once again the US and NATO have had to respond that it is both unnecessary, and dangerous: I was glad to see China is starting to acknowledge that this is endangering us all: Finally, something a little humorous:
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Wednesday, March 09, 2022

Today's News: Maybe Russia could just declare victory and leave?

I was all excited earlier today when it looked as though Poland and the US had an airplane deal worked out. 
But that doesn't seem to be the case tonight. 
One thing is certain: Biden will do what he can to stop Putin's war of aggression, but he will not be stampeded into actions that could backfire on the security of the west. 
Which means the No Fly Zone continues to be a non-starter - and finally today, I didn't see as many people chattering like the NFZ was the only possible military tactic whose success would be instantaneous, guaranteed, and innocuous.  
In the meantime, the enormous volume of arms deliveries continue:
NATO is not fucking around either: Russia is not winning: Gas prices are rising in the US and I think Biden is rightly concerned that the economic pain will dampen US support for Russian sanctions and other support for Ukraine if the war grinds on. There was news today that Biden has tried to talk to Saudi Arabia about increasing oil production but Saudi Arabia brushed him off. Bad idea: And on a side note, here's a great thread about how Americans can deal with higher gas prices: One thing that worries me about Putin is his ego may not let him give up irregardless of what damage Russia is enduring: But there was also other news today of hints from Zelenskiy that the war could end if Putin would settle for keeping the break-away regions he already has - basically, declare victory and leave. 
This might be a deal that both the Ukraine and Putin could live with: Here in Canada, Jason Kenny's contribution to the international relations discussion during such a fraught time ---- is to whine about how mean everyone is to poor poor Alberta: Finally, here's one tweet that really startled me today -- basically, its been a hell of a winter for all of us:
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Tuesday, March 08, 2022

Today's News: Poetry of a sort

There's a lot of news and tweets about the Ukraine-Russia War, so I am now following three Twitter Lists: 
From The Horse Whisperer: Ukraine Coverage 
I think maybe the war is going better for Ukraine now. 
They're getting some of the help they need:
I don't know if we can conclude quite yet that Russia is losing. But today, they ain't winning: I'm reading more analysis tonight and I don't think my optimism for Ukraine's success is just a dead cat bounce: Here is this, for International Women's Day - I don't think these women are going to be interested in helping Russia pretend to win the war: And I am even finding today some poetical moments of hope: And another great Rae tweet -- that Lavrov statement was utterly bizarre: And finally, this is just so great:
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