Trying to protect the NDP vote in Elmwood-Transcona?

Canada is still mystified by Singh's decision to "rip up" his Supply and Confidence agreement with Trudeau. 

Funny, most of the time when people “rip up agreements” it’s because the other side didn’t deliver. Notice @theJagmeetSingh never once mentioned that? And that because he can’t. Because we DID deliver. Voters will not look kindly on him.

— Mark Gerretsen 🇨🇦 🇺🇦 (@MarkGerretsen) September 5, 2024

Here's an interesting interview that tries to dig into why Singh did it:

If you want to watch David Cochrane absolutely eviscerate Jagmeet Singh on national television, it’s the first twenty minutes of this clip. https://t.co/WvceDwK39d

— Dale Smith (@journo_dale) September 6, 2024

Cochrane notes that Singh has been considering this move for a month - he recorded his video announcement in August -- so Cochrane asks Singh several times "Yes, but why, and why NOW?"  

Singh never really answers - lots about high food prices and higher rents, but never explains why he sprang this sudden announcement on the Liberals without even giving Trudeau a phone call heads-up.

Then at the very end of the interview, Cochrane mentions the upcoming Manitoba byelection. 

And that's when I started to wonder....

The riding of Elmwood-Transcona is a working-class riding in Winnipeg that has reliably voted NDP for the last 45 years   However, they did go Conservative once, in 2011. And this time, with Poilievre surging, the Conservatives have nominated a union man, electrician Colin Reynolds, to run against the new NDP candidate Leila Dance, who is executive director of the non-profit Transcona BIZ (business improvement zone). 

So it makes me wonder if the NDP are worried that their hold on this riding is questionable right now -- or, at least, maybe Singh is questioning it, particularly if  NDP canvassers are hearing complaints from prospective supporters about how come the NDP are "sell-outs" to that dastardly Trudeau. 

Because hey, if the NDP actually loses this riding to the Conservatives, that would be an unmitigated disaster for Singh.

I don't think I'm the only one thinking this way:

Unreliable (or worse) agreement partner and leader, timing may have been a panic move as Manitoba by-election advanced voting starts this weekend. #cdnpoli

— David L. Hutchinson (@DavidHutch) September 5, 2024

And in his CTV column, former NDP leader Tom Mulcair writes Why Singh decided to 'go for broke' and pull out of his deal with Trudeau:

....They say that all politics is local. Singh’s decision to walk away from his deal with Trudeau has everything to do with local by-elections in two very different places.

In the Winnipeg by-election you’re looking at people whose families still talk about the Winnipeg general strike. These were hard fought battles. Part of Canadian history. People like longtime NDP MP Bill Blaikie and his son Daniel, both of whom were elected and re-elected in the riding, didn’t need to be told whose side they were on.

... Singh knows that he has to hold on to the Winnipeg riding, but the information I’ve received from people working in that by-election isn’t encouraging for the NDP.

The last hope for Singh to avoid a major mishap in those by-elections on Sept. 16 is to pull off a Layton-esque miracle in the Montreal riding of LaSalle-Émard-Verdun.

The NDP has a very strong and well-liked candidate in local city Councillor Craig Sauvé. There is a good demographic and linguistic mix that could help the NDP. Verdun, for example, is now represented provincially by the resolutely left-wing Québec Solidaire.

This seems to be the hope of Singh if he wants to avoid a rout. It would come with the added bonus, from the NDP’s point of view, of handing Trudeau an embarrassing loss on a par with the Liberal defeat in the recent Toronto-St. Paul’s by-election.

It’s far from certain that the Liberals will not be able to get out enough votes, however. The LaSalle part of the riding was a key part of Paul Martin’s political fiefdom and as long as organizers do their job, the Liberals should be able to hold onto the riding.

And on a side note, I wonder if Singh was just a little pissed off with this:

🇨🇦I STAND WITH TRUDEAU 🇨🇦
Canada needs more Wab Kinew! 🇨🇦🧡🪶🧡🇨🇦 pic.twitter.com/4VUSRdh07R

— BKBelton (@bk_belton) August 29, 2024