"We will fight and we will win" - Inspiration from Justin Trudeau, comments from Wesley Wark, Charlie Angus, Evan Scrimshaw, Paul Krugman, Jeff Tiedrich. And in late news, US now saying "never mind"?

My illustration today was posted by CdnHistoryEhx - it shows the Battle of Queenston Heights, Oct 13 1812 by John David Kelly. Despite being outnumbered by three to one, the Canadians and the British won against the United States. 

It seemed appropriate because once again Canada finds itself fighting an unwanted battle against a much stronger bully.

 

Trudeau gave a brilliant speech today, and held a brilliant press conference. 

"We will fight, and we will win. ... We're going to make sure nobody goes hungry, and everyone carries their share."

Yes, I agree this was the most remarkable part - Trudeau is not pussyfooting around:

If you can't listen to all of it, read Wesley Wark's excellent analysis:

Wesley Wark / Wesley Wark’s National Security and Intelligence Newsletter

Trudeau comes out swinging

Or, he gets three big punches in, but shadow boxing

... This was Trudeau the boxer, on his toes....

He aimed three big roundhouses.

The very first, right off the top, was aimed at the Trump administration as a whole, that bizarre coterie of loyalists, weirdos, and the under-qualified...

The second punch was aimed at the gut of the American people. Canadian counter-tariffs, Trudeau indicated, was never a shot we wanted to take....

The third swing was to the chin of the Donald. Trudeau didn’t refer to him as The President or Mr. President, just “Donald.” Lese majeste! Cue up howls from the rabid right wing media in the US. This was almost a worse afront than failing to wear a suit. Trudeau reminded Donald that over the course of their respective political careers, “we have done great things together.” Note to Trudeau speech writers—Donald’s memory and grasp of history is not the best (but it doesn’t matter). The PM then went on to really power it in, quoting and agreeing with the Wall Street Journal--that “Donald—this is a very dumb thing to do.”

Then finally, he turned to the Canadian people, not with a punch, but a promise, hopefully not a fairy-tale. American tariffs will be tough, he said, no sugar-coating, but the government will be there to support you.

Probably the most unscripted thing that Trudeau had to say, which came out in the brief Q and A with the media, was that what Trump wants to see with the tariffs is a total collapse of the Canadian economy, which would make it easier for Trump to annex us. Not going to happen, he said.

It was inspiring for everyone:

Charlie Angus / The Resistance

Message to Trump: Canada won't burn in your dumpster fire

This Is Canada's Moment

...This isn't a trade war – it is an existential threat.

...I have never been more inspired by the determination of people across this country to stand up and be counted. To defend our values. To defend our diversity and national fairness. To defend our beautiful land.

That's where Canada is at today.

...no doubt in the coming days, the arsonist-in-chief will shout louder, and try to distract more dramatically. Perhaps the media will follow him to see where he is going.

This is the power of the big lie.

But the big lie is about to face down-to-earth Canadian truth.

We don't need to boast or shout. That's not who we are.

Canadians are hunkering down. We know that we are in the fight of our lives. But at the end of the day, Canada will still be standing.

True. North. Strong. Free.

Elbows up, people. Elbows up.

Poilievre and the Conservatives just don't have an answer:

Evan Scrimshaw / Scrimshaw Unscripted

Tariffs, And Conservatives Panic

On Harper’s Intervention And Tariff Reality

...The problem for the Conservatives is they want this election to be about a bunch of other things than tariffs, and for perceptions of the economy to be about inflation and carbon taxes and not tariffs. It’s just not going to work. Trump’s ability to command the news cycle means there won’t be a relent of this, and the (mostly) Conservative Premiers won’t help. Doug Ford going on American TV within a couple hours of Trump’s confirmation is a sign that we’re not getting a reprieve from tariff talk.

The problem with what a lot of Conservatives hope is that they think this tariff situation will happen, or not, and then we’ll go back to the issues we cared about before. The problem is, tariffs aren’t a destination to meet and then pass, but the beginning of a process. That process will include economic pain, job losses, store closures, and more, on both sides of the border. And that pain, those closures, those human tragedies, will have unforeseen consequences. If the American people face job losses and price hikes, maybe even rolling brownouts, it’s going to continue to play out. Maybe the US backs down tomorrow, maybe next week, maybe in 3 weeks. Trump will inevitably say 78 things that all contradict themselves and send us all into a tizzy. This is our lives now.

The Conservatives have to blunt Carney’s message on the economy and his reputation as a man who can be trusted, but the problem is they’re trying to attack something that is self-evidently true. Even if you give Carney no credit at all for the GFC, Carney led the UK through post-Brexit referendum uncertainty and the most chaotic Parliament since the 70s, if not longer. Carney’s record isn’t perfect, and I think in a lot of ways his record is of being needlessly conservative in terms of when he pulls the trigger on big calls, but that's my opinion. It’s certainly not a criticism the Conservatives can launch.

The other part of the Brexit of it all is that Brexit is the closest thing to Trump’s trade war we have in one specific way - that process descended into vanity and who and declarations from some of the dumbest men on earth all the time. As someone who has had to manage an economy where the opinions of Steve Baker and Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg and Nadine Dorries and so many other true morons had the economy in the balance, it’s not a bad proxy for this. This man had to manage an economy where the country’s Parliament kept hearing all these speeches from red wall Labour MPs whose voters wanted Brexit claiming to support their constituents' wishes before walking right through the division lobbies with the Remainers. It was utterly insane, and he managed to keep the ship of state afloat.

The problem with attacking Carney’s fitness for the moment is that he’s fit. He might be a crap politician and he might have bad answers to a lot of questions but Mark Carney is not out of place talking to foreign leaders or ringing around business leaders. The attacks on Carney make sense in one way (it’s their only move) and no sense in the other (they won’t land). Sometimes there isn’t a move. The Conservatives are in deep shit, because there isn’t an immediate or obvious solution. Carney can and very well might botch this, Poilievre might be able to come through this looking tough. It’s not impossible to see a Conservative win - hell, I’d still bet on a Conservative majority if you put a gun to my head right now. But if this is the best they’ve got? They’re fucked.

Why is Trump doing this to us? 

Economist Paul Krugman thinks its because Trump just hates us:

Paul Krugman

Trump Hates Canada for its Decency

The president lacks basic decency, and loathes people who do

...efforts to find some kind of economic justification for Trump’s Canada-hatred have the feeling of desperate efforts to avoid the obvious. Canada is a pretty decent place, as nations go. And Trump, whom nobody would describe as a decent person, dislikes and maybe even fears people who are.

I mean, look at the people Trump has chosen to play prominent roles in his administration. I guess if you search hard enough you can find officials without a sex scandal, a financial scandal, a history of anti-semitism or racism, or a record of substance abuse in a senior position. But it isn’t easy. It really looks as if being vile is a fundamental job qualification.

And so we’re having a trade war. Trump appears to believe that we don’t need anything from Canada. Automobile manufacturers who rely on Canadian parts, Midwestern oil refineries that rely on Canadian oil, builders who rely on Canadian lumber, households that rely on Canadian hydropower for their electricity will soon learn otherwise. Trump may imagine that he can bully Canada into submission. But he can’t; Canadians of all political persuasions are furious. Doug Ford, the conservative premier of Ontario, has the right atttitude: he has threatened to cut off U.S. electricity “with a smile on my face.” And remember that Canada can’t concede to U.S. demands, even if it were in a mood to do so (which it very much isn’t) because there aren’t any coherent U.S. demands; Canada has done nothing wrong!

So I don’t know how this ends. But U.S. voters will soon be feeling real pain, and I very much doubt that it will end in a Trump victory.

Jeff Tiedrich thinks its because deranged dictators always think they are economic geniuses:

Jeff Tiedrich / everyone is entitled to my own opinion

Donny Dumbfuck’s gonna learn about tariffs the hard way

everyone with a brain can see what’s coming

deranged dictators sure love to inflict their fucked-up ideas about economics on the rest of us.

Uncle Joe Stalin’s forced collectivization of farms led to massive famine — millions starved to death in Ukraine alone. (why the hell is it always Ukraine?)

then there was Mao’s economic clusterfuck known as the Great Leap Forward. historians aren’t exactly sure how many people died from it, but it’s generally thought to be somewhere between 15 to 55 million.

Donny Convict will probably never put up numbers like that — but that isn’t going to stop him from trying like hell.

yesterday, Donny announced his Great Leap Feet-First Into The Fucking Shitter.

...and yes, indeed — the markets freaked right out after the announcement. the Dow dropped off a cliff.

...and — oh, look! we’re in a trade war now.

HONG KONG — China and Canada moved swiftly on Tuesday to retaliate against newly imposed U.S. tariffs, announcing their own levies on U.S. goods that could further disrupt the United States’ trade with its top three trading partners.

everyone with a brain saw this coming. unfortunately, ‘everyone with a brain’ is a demographic that does not include our current president — or his party. the dumbfuck still doesn’t understand that tariffs are a tax paid by the importer and passed onto you and me, the consumers — and there’s no way to explain it to him. he simply doesn’t want to know.

...Donny’s going to have to do multi-billion-dollars bailouts all over again — bailouts that we, the taxpayers, will have to eat.

when Mao did his Great Leap Forward, the Chinese Communist Party had to create their own propaganda to hype it.

but Donny doesn’t have to bother with any of that for his Great Leap Feet-First Into The Fucking Shitter — he’s got his brainwashed cultists doing it for him...

In other news, Trump ranted and railed to Congress tonight:

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Wark watched it so I didn't have to -- thanks!

Wesley Wark / Wesley Wark’s National Security and Intelligence Newsletter

Trump's pomposity

Or, watching the clock, one hour and thirty-nine gruelling minutes

Donald Trump is a pompous man. The pomposity was on full display for the full one hour and thirty-nine minutes of his speech before Congress on the evening of March 4. Most of it was about his domestic agenda, most replayed his electioneering on illegal aliens, out-of-control crime, the Washington swamp, and his culture wars. He is a vexed man.

...No mention of making Canada the 51st state, but take no comfort in that. There was, instead, real clarity that the US under Trump intends to turn itself into an autarkic economy, manufacturing, mining and growing everything it needs within its own borders. This will include cars. It will include “drill baby, drill.” Autarky will make America great again. Beggar your neighbour, and the global trading system, but who cares. America First.

There were annexationist threats against the Panama canal—“we are taking it back” he told his Republican cheerleaders. Greenland, Trump said, is needed for US and international security. Why wasn’t clear. Menacingly, he said “I think we are going to get it—one way or another.”

....Trump is a dangerous man. His ideas are dangerous for Americans, certainly for the world. He believes that the world is with him, his common sense revolution is sweeping the globe. Messianic that. But there was one more clue hiding in plain sight in the speech to Congress. Referencing the assassination threat against him on the campaign trail, he said that be firmly believed that he had been “saved by God to make America great again.”

Be careful about self-proclaimed messiahs. Be careful about a crowd that chants “USA” in a cadence that reminded me, chillingly, of “Sieg Heil.”

Late news:

Now it looks like the United States is trying to pull an Emily Litella "Never Mind!"

The US might be trying to calm the stock markets tonight by backing down already, though I wouldn't take Lutnick's comments to the bank:

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CBC is reporting this story:

Alexander Panetta, Katie Simpson, Meagan Fitzpatrick / CBC News

Trump defends his trade war. But an ally hints at de-escalation

While the U.S. president delivers defiant speech, senior aide works the phones with Canada, Mexico

...Now Trump's tariff point man says there could be an adjustment on Wednesday.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick made the claim Tuesday after speaking to officials at different levels of Canadian government about finding an off-ramp. Lutnick went public with that possibility in media appearances, saying Trump was considering some sort of compromise in this one specific dispute with Canada and Mexico.

"I think there's going to be a significant announcement tomorrow," Lutnick told CBC News inside the Capitol. "There's been lots of talking," he said, referring to his conversations with Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc.

He later added that Canada had made an excellent offer to co-operate in stopping fentanyl, and that there was a chance at a compromise with both Canada and Mexico: "I think there's some room.... We'll announce that tomorrow."

It's not clear how certain this is. A Lutnick phone call with Ontario Premier Doug Ford was described as "tough" in tone by a senior Ontario government source, and Canadian officials, separately, downplayed talk of an imminent deal.

...The source told CBC News that Lutnick was clearly trying to get Canadians to de-escalate, as Canada implements counter-tariffs and Ford has made dramatic threats, including putting an export tax on electricity.

The continent-wide tariff war has swiftly roiled American markets and risks turning into a political headache for Trump.

Earlier Tuesday, American news media were reporting the souring economic mood. And Democrats who have been stumbling around in search of a clear message since the election are testing one on tariffs.

...President Trump wants tax cuts for billionaires, and to pay for it, he'll collect tariffs on the goods ordinary people buy, is how that argument goes.

..." It makes no sense to start a trade war with America's closest trade partners," Schumer said. "The casualty of that trade war will be consumers and American households."

He ridiculed the idea that fentanyl from Canada was the real impetus for these tariffs. To impose the tariffs, Trump declared fentanyl deaths a national emergency and used it to invoke the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977.

Lawyers for multinational companies are preparing to argue in court that Trump abused the law and that fentanyl deaths were a false pretext.

They can point to the president's own words that he's mostly tightened the border already, and the words of his aides praising Canada and Mexico's actions to halt the cross-border flow of fentanyl.

Democrats have also drafted a motion aimed at forcing a vote in Congress to knock down the tariffs on Canada and Mexico — which is a long shot.

But if Lutnick is right, all of this might be moot by Wednesday. And the countries might move on to other irritants: Trump's litany of other tariff threats, and a review of CUSMA.

Republicans expressed confidence that Trump had a secret strategy. Or rather, they hoped so. Republican Senate Majority Leader John Thune told CNN he's worried about the economic effect of these tariffs.

Well, maybe....but after the last three months, Canada isn't going to believe anything Trump says anymore.

       

Finally, this:

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