Yes, the Annexing Canada talk is serious now. Deadly serious.

People have been chatting about this sotto voce for weeks, but also saying "it's so paranoid, I don't really believe it, not really..." 

We will look back on March 7 as the weekend people finally believed it -- that Trump and his crazy administration actually do want to take over Canada - by referendum, or by annexation, or by war.

Trudeau and Joli already knew this and they've been sounding the alarm.

Now, we're all listening.

Canada Bureau Chief Matina Stevis-Gridneff / New York Times

How Trump’s ‘51st State’ Canada Talk Came to Be Seen as Deadly Serious

President Trump, in an early February call, challenged the border treaty between the two countries and told Justin Trudeau he didn’t like their shared water agreements.

After President Trump imposed tariffs on Canada on Tuesday, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made an extraordinary statement that was largely lost in the fray of the moment.

“The excuse that he’s giving for these tariffs today of fentanyl is completely bogus, completely unjustified, completely false,” Mr. Trudeau told the news media in Ottawa.

“What he wants is to see a total collapse of the Canadian economy, because that’ll make it easier to annex us,” he added.

This is the story of how Mr. Trudeau went from thinking Mr. Trump was joking when he referred to him as “governor” and Canada as “the 51st state” in early December to publicly stating that Canada’s closest ally and neighbor was implementing a strategy of crushing the country in order to take it over.

...Mr. Lutnick called Mr. LeBlanc after the leaders had spoken on Feb. 3, and issued a devastating message, according to several people familiar with the call: Mr. Trump, he said, had come to realize that the relationship between the United States and Canada was governed by a slew of agreements and treaties that were easy to abandon.

Mr. Trump was interested in doing just that, Mr. Lutnick said.

He wanted to eject Canada out of an intelligence-sharing group known as the Five Eyes that also includes Britain, Australia and New Zealand.

He wanted to tear up the Great Lakes agreements and conventions between the two nations that lay out how they share and manage Lakes Superior, Huron, Erie and Ontario.

And he is also reviewing military cooperation between the two countries, particularly the North American Aerospace Defense Command.

...In subsequent communications between senior Canadian officials and Trump advisers, this list of topics has come up again and again, making it hard for the Canadian government to dismiss them.

The only soothing of nerves has come from Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the four people familiar with the matter said. Mr. Rubio has refrained from delivering threats, and recently dismissed the idea that the United States was looking at scrapping military cooperation.

But Canada’s politicians across the spectrum, and Canadian society at large, are frayed and deeply concerned. Officials do not see the Trump administration’s threats as empty; they see a new normal when it comes to the United States....

This thread summarizes the NYT article and adds more details:

2/ The New York Times reports on first-hand accounts of what has been said in trade talks between the US and Canada, which led to Canadian PM Justin Trudeau saying publicly on March 4th that he believed Trump wanted to annex Canada.https://t.co/y0CVtKQrSo

— ChrisO_wiki (@ChrisO_wiki) March 7, 2025

12/ The reference to the 1908 treaty is somewhat odd, as the National Post has pointed out: it was only one of a series of 11 treaties under which the US, Britain and Canada defined the border and divided up the management of boundary rivers and lakes.

— ChrisO_wiki (@ChrisO_wiki) March 7, 2025

14/ Most of Canada's freshwater is in fact in the Great Lakes and the St Lawrence River. The Great Lakes (with the exception of Lake Michigan) are divided roughly down the middle between the US and Canada, which controls about 60% of their surface area. pic.twitter.com/zFf0oTJ40W

— ChrisO_wiki (@ChrisO_wiki) March 7, 2025

16/ Kicking Canada out of NORAD would be even less practical – most of the North Warning System to spot incoming missiles is in Canada, as are all of the Forward Operating Locations where fighter interceptors are based. However, practicality no longer seems to be a concern. /end pic.twitter.com/FxgKjAucgm

— ChrisO_wiki (@ChrisO_wiki) March 7, 2025

Malcolm Nance writes a chilling summary:

  

Malcolm Nance / Special Intelligence

URGENT WARNING: Trump is Planning to Invade Canada & Greenland

The Regime’s Big Talk Indicates that the Decision Has Been Made; They Just Don’t Know How or When.

...details of Trump’s phone conversations with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau have given me, and finally, the New York Times, an unambiguous intelligence indicator that the decision has been made to annex Canada. This is my assessment of the situation.

Bottom Line Up Front Assessment

The political rhetoric in the first five weeks of the Trump regime is giving clear indications that the United States fully intends to invade and seize Canada and Greenland at President Trump’s command. The possible timeline is 6-18 months of political destabilization to weaken the Canadian economy, split political parties, and carry out secret destabilization efforts, including identifying and making contact with Canadians who would betray their country.

The best hope is that the operation would be compromised and the planning publicized well in advance of mobilization by anti-Trump loyalists to the Constitution in the intelligence and armed forces who would recognize the campaign's foolhardiness. However, this does not guarantee that Trump would not carry out the attack.

The occupation of Canada would quickly become a continent-wide, high-intensity modern war akin to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It would rapidly devolve into a higher-intensity insurgency, which could lead to the deaths of thousands on both sides. Any operation would most likely collapse the American economy and precipitate a violent Second American Civil War.

This timeline is the most likely but worst course of action. Aerial combat operations followed by Special Forces actions to seize key facilities against Canada’s armed forces could come quickly and with almost no warning.

...Trump’s Most Likely Plan of Action

Phase 1 - Political Destabilization and Subversion of Greenland...

Phase 2 - Economic Destabilization of Canada

To get a false Casus Belli, Trump would likely dump massive amounts of money into fringe political groups. One of them is Wexit, a group that wants Western Canada, particularly the oil-rich provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan, to split and join the USA. Groups such as these, under the guidance of the Republican party via clandestine pathways operated by the CIA, could receive tens of millions of dollars to fund a nationwide information warfare campaign to give the appearance that there are a large majority of Canadians who want to leave and join the USA. Elon Musk would likely dedicate hundreds of millions of dollars to this ridiculous idea. Coupled with a massive international social media attack, the confusion would be enough to give Trump cover that he was “rescuing” the Canadian people from an extremist liberal autocratic government. Dozens of false polls would cover the truth and drown out opposition.

Phase 3 - Invade Greenland and then Canada...

Political Consequences of War: Insurgency, Mutiny, Civil War

The consequences of any decision to move to Greenland or Canada are grave for the people of the United States. The political turmoil that would follow would immediately constitute a Constitutional crisis ... On a global scale, the United States would become a pariah nation... As many as 60% of the American Armed Forces would refuse to execute any operation to attack Canada.

...Like the Russian invaders of Ukraine, orders would go out under the guise of “training exercises” and end with the seizure of Greenland and Canada. However, the other critical units, such as the 101st and 82nd Airborne Divisions, would be needed to take Montreal, Quebec City, Ottowa, Toronto, Edmonton, Regina, and Vancouver. Their mobilization for Greenland operation would provide cover for a blitz on Canada. The operations concept would be to “dare” the Canadians to open fire on them in hopes that the country would just “Lay back and let it happen.” Team Trump’s sycophants somehow seem to believe that the Canadians would surrender quickly and quietly.

They have never been to a hockey game.

...the Canadian people would likely rise up as a body and fight to the death. The US may be able to seize a few airports and, over a few weeks, push heavy forces into Canada, but all this would do is send in a protracted paramilitary counterinsurgency. It is one thing to seize terrain and another to hold it. The American public would be confronted with video images of their sons and daughters being picked off one by one at night by Canadian soldiers, reservists, and citizens who volunteered as paramilitary partisans. Imagine Afghanistan, but where the opponents have some of the most advanced surface-to-air missile systems, shooting American helicopters down with impunity or IEDs improvised, explosive devices hidden in Beaver dams or moose carcasses. The very idea that we are forced to discuss this is fantastical and ridiculous. However, the Trump administration appears to be serious....

Such an extremely disastrous decision as invading Canada would lead to the Second American Civil War. Border states from Michigan to Maine would immediately refuse to comply with all orders from Washington....

Team Trump is blathering on and on with a complete and total disregard for the consequences that could destroy the unity and fabric of this nation...

This is not the first outbreak of Expansionist Fever in American history, but in signing the UN Charter, all countries agreed to put this nonsense behind them. As put forward by the US administration it represents a clear and present threat to Canada’s territorial integrity, a…

— Bob Rae (@BobRae48) March 8, 2025

I wonder if France and Britain will help Canada, like we twice helped them? The fear is they might be too busy trying to save Ukraine and Europe from Russia:

The US probably made a deal with Russia. You get Europe we get Canada. Europe will be too busy to help us. It's up to us.

— Root Route (@s2root.bsky.social) March 8, 2025 at 4:05 AM

Oh Canada -- even in this perilous time, we find something to laugh about!

Just trying to imagine America trying to take, and hold, Newfoundland. OMJ

— Chris Miller, PhD 🇨🇦 (@NSwilderness) March 8, 2025