Updating the Ukraine-Russia War: the F16s are coming

Over at Balloon Juice, national security expert Adam Silverman has written a piece about the war in Ukraine every single day since Russia started their unjust and illegal war.  

At Routine Proceedings, Dale Smith also writes a Ukraine Dispatch every single day. 

 Every weekend, Phillips O'Brien writes a Weekend Update on substack. 

These knowledgeable and experienced commentators are seeing a recent evolution in US thinking about this war -- that Ukraine is winning, that Russia is losing, and that the risk of Russia starting a nuclear war is getting smaller by the day. 

Today Silverman writes about how Russia was viewed when it invaded Ukraine 15 months ago, compared to how it is viewed today: 

My professional opinion is that the beltway consensus was that the Russian army was what we had assessed it to be: professional, properly resourced and equipped, and powerful. 

Another part of the beltway consensus was that despite Ukrainian resolve their was no way they would withstand having the bulk of that force thrown at them. 

These two beliefs, which we now know like much of the beltway’s deeply held convictions are just wrong, were exacerbated and enhanced by the fact that Russia won the information war around Ukraine back in 2014 and almost every policy discussion and almost all of the news reporting was being done within the informational shaping that Russia had successfully undertaken. 

This includes everything from views of Russia’s military to views of Ukraine and the Revolution of Dignity to taking Russia’s nuclear weapons and usage doctrine exactly as Russia wanted us to.

 Silverman then notes the change in tone as shown in these tweets yesterday:

Good for him. This is the correct response. https://t.co/i7euZINuUu

— Michael Weiss (@michaeldweiss) May 21, 2023

Weekend funnies: From being cancelled, to being wrecked by an orca

There are too many people these days who get outraged when they say something awful in a national media and then get asked to defend their views or shut up about them. The right wing rails against so-called "cancel culture"  - even though, of course, it is the right wingers themselves who are busy cancelling liberalism wherever they can.

Now we have another example - a bizarre "Thought Criminals" story in the New Yorker , complaining how problematic it is for a group of self-important right-wingers that nobody wants to listen to their BS anymore.  It is the comments that make this story worth noting, because they are truly hilarious:

once a month, this elite group of brave forbidden intellectuals gather to ask "why can't a white guy say it" https://t.co/Tk4yLREymC

— lauren (@NotABigJerk) May 17, 2023

The harsh cancel culture of a 3000 word puff piece

— Ryan Marino, MD (@RyanMarino) May 17, 2023

Today's News and Views: from Poilievre to Penguins

First, this is such a juvenile response from Poilievre, isn't it:

This is how important foreign interference is to Pierre Poilievre. pic.twitter.com/XBfCgOe8Gm

— Raoul Duke's Salt Shaker (@RodKahx) May 17, 2023

They do the same thing during election campaigns, when they are "too busy" to attend all-candidate meetings.
This will only change if the press calls out the cowardly "too busy" excuse, instead of just thinking its cute.

— Cathie from Canada 🇨🇦 😷🏳️‍🌈 (@CathieCanada) May 17, 2023

It is just more proof that Pierre Poilievre is far out of his depth and that conservatives choosing him as a 'leader' was a huge mistake for them. It only causes us to remember why Poilievre should never be entrusted with anything more important than weekly trash collection.

— FranklyMyDear (@MrDash109) May 17, 2023

Now, of course, Poilievre's staff is desperately trying to walk back his juvenile response, blaming Johnson for whatever. 

Weekend funnies: From Amazon delivery drivers to Met Gala chickens

WELCOME
TO THE WEEKEND pic.twitter.com/6kbG3hFBWF

— Brittlestar (@brittlestar) May 12, 2023

First up, Amazon delivery drivers!

amazon: your driver just passed the 172 mile marker on 95 north

me: stop

— the hype (@TheHyyyype) May 12, 2023

Cops everywhere, tense standoff, and our hero - the unshakeable Amazon delivery driver - struts in like they're delivering a pizza to a Netflix marathon 🍕pic.twitter.com/LhyHjfYuMw

— LeGate🤠 (@williamlegate) May 1, 2023

The Stupid! It Burns!

First, the most serious story today in Canada was the Alberta wildfires -- and I'm not sure whether this newest development is stupid, or criminal, or maybe both, but tonight there were reports that even though the Alberta wildfires continue to burn, some municipalities will be allowing evacuated people to return to their homes in spite of the risk:

In Alberta, residents evacuated from wildfires are being told they must return home and "live with fires" in a clear parallel to covid messaging. Covid infection propaganda has opened the door, enabling dangers formerly considered intolerable to be recast as inescapable https://t.co/xhjnbYgcBW

— Nate Bear (@NateB_Panic) May 11, 2023

WATCH: The decision in one #AB county to send wildfire evacuees back home - and the calculated risks they must take. That is our story for @CBCTheNational: https://t.co/3u2DeFWjx8

— Julia Wong (@JuliaWongCBC) May 11, 2023

And in spite of the irrational anger from this rancher at this meeting in Grande Prairie, I did think he had a point about how he needs better communications from the municipality to show whether livestock is at risk, etc:

Meanwhile, in Grande Prairie…

“You can’t keep us out of the evacuation zone, this is just like COVID and we’re not going to listen, put your efforts into posting pictures (not fighting the fires) or we’re gonna go in, what are you gonna do?”#abpoli #ableg #cdnpoli pic.twitter.com/PseFKr4LWT

— The Breakdown (@TheBreakdownAB) May 9, 2023

Because if Covid has taught us anything, it is the importance of improving communications between government and people.

Coronation Highlights: Canada Indigenous Leadership in London

Just one additional note about the Coronation -- here are some of the highlights I gathered about significant moments for Indigenous delegation members in their visit to London.

In the Globe and Mail, Royal expert John Fraser posts an interesting comment about King Charles' coronation: 

Over at Canada House, there was a considerable gathering of Canadians to watch the coronation on large television monitors, a gathering which included many Indigenous visitors. A witness to the proceedings, verified by another person present, reported that the most striking thing to happen during the live broadcast of the service was when the King was crowned and later during the playing and singing of God Save the King, Indigenous members in the gathering all stood in respect. Most of the non-Indigenous viewers stayed glued to their seats.

This suggests interesting days to come in the story of Canada, especially when the King and Queen make their next visit.

Ambassador Goodale also told a reporter they are working on setting up a Royal Visit to Canada now.

Another day for thoughts and prayers

Another day of Republican thoughts and prayers.

Its also distressing to note that cartoonist Michael de Adder at the Washington Post posted this cartoon a week ago (following the Cleveland Texas massacre) not yesterday (following the Allen Texas massacre). Unfortunately, there are just too many mass shootings to count.

Don't lose sight of this. After Uvalde, Texas cops at every level, including and especially DPS, are aware their state is mass shooter central and now mostly see the aftermath as a PR problem. A news cycle to be managed. https://t.co/ObAkQWGqPY

— zeddy (@Zeddary) May 7, 2023

Here's a comment from Brittlestar:

WE'RE TOO STUPID TO HAVE GUNS https://t.co/caiS1ssoYk

— Brittlestar (@brittlestar) April 29, 2023

And from Chris Rock:

It’s time to seriously consider Chris Rock’s gun control plan since they’ll never do anything about the guns pic.twitter.com/4eI3CHcHio

— Wu Tang is for the Children (@WUTangKids) May 7, 2023

"...the moment is struck, a pact is sworn"

Here is the Coronation photo where Charles and Camilla really looked happy -- they're on the balcony, it's over, they made it, and nobody stumbled, collapsed, or dropped the Crown Jewels. 

Phew!

My post title tonight is from the poem written by British Poet Laureate Simon Armitage "An Unexpected Guest" in honour of King Charles' coronation. 

The poem follows the story of a woman invited to attend a coronation and uses lines from Samuel Pepys diary, which described his encounter with the coronation of King Charles II, pointing to the historical significance of the occasion.

Here is the last stanza: 

She’ll watch it again on the ten o’clock news 

from the armchair throne in her living room: 

did the cameras notice her coral pink hat 

or her best coat pinned with the hero’s medal she got 

for being herself? The invitation is propped 

on the mantelpiece by the carriage clock. 

She adorned the day with ordinariness; 

she is blessed to have brought the extraordinary home. 

And now she’ll remember the house sparrow 

she thought she’d seen in the abbey roof 

arcing from eave to eave, beyond and above. 

Some tweets:

What. A. Day.

Thank you to everyone who made it happen #Coronation pic.twitter.com/qaYFXSjjli

— The Prince and Princess of Wales (@KensingtonRoyal) May 6, 2023

Today's News: The Story Behind The Story?

Trudeau's brother Sacha testified today to the Ethics Committee and for a non-politician he did very well -- he didn't "spin a story", he didn't punch up a headline or two, he didn't trade insults with the insulting Con MPs who were trying to goad him. 

He just talked about the history about the Chinese donation - noting in passing his own expertise about China society, and his respect for the Chinese people = and also told the committee that the PET Foundation management had been disfunctional.

Alexandre Trudeau: I hoped this could be a forum for the truth to come out.
A House of Commons committee? A forum for truth? Oh, heavens no. It hasn’t been for a loooooooong time. #ETHI

— Dale Smith (@journo_dale) May 3, 2023

When WE Charity tried to clear itself by hiring a former senior judge and a top forensic accountant to go over its governance and finances, the media and politicians said the experts were conflicted and compromised. So I understand Mr. Trudeau’s frustration.

— Mark Bourrie (@MarkBourrie) May 3, 2023

Evan Scrimshaw (Scrimshaw Unscripted) notes the real issue isn't the Trudeau family at all, its Canada's intelligence agencies: CSIS' Leaking Ship A National, not Political Crisis:

...why is nobody else able to see what has been obvious for the last two months, which is that the real story here is a RCMP-CSIS war?

...I don’t have national security sources who can clue me in on this shit, but what I do have is a bullshit detector and a functioning brain, and this is the only theory of this story that adds up. CSIS, or elements within it, are mad at the lack of action that’s been taken on foreign interference and they’d like it to change. The RCMP has not listened to them, for reasons unclear. And now there’s a turf war.

...the matter at hand when it comes to CSIS is not why is the Prime Minister sitting on all of this incredibly important intelligence but why isn’t CSIS acting on this information if it’s as valuable and credible as the way it’s reported out suggests? Why can’t CSIS persuade the RCMP to do something about any of this if it is credible, and if it’s not credible enough for the RCMP to do anything why is it being given to Bob Fife?

...Trudeau said today that the reason Chong wasn’t told, and implicitly why he wasn’t told, was that CSIS made the determination that it did not rise to a sufficient level for it to be disseminated broadly. Maybe that call was right, maybe it wasn’t, argue with a rock for all I care. But what matters in that is that CSIS doesn’t get to have their cake and eat it too. Either these leaks are justified by the truly important nature of the information disclosed, or the information disclosed wasn’t important enough to disclose to the PMO or to Chong.

...We have an unserious spy agency at war with either our political government, our national police force, or both. We have a spy agency willing to leak things to the press they deemed insufficiently important to brief the PMO about. We have a pundit class eager to make the Prime Minister to blame for things he did not know about. And we have an opposition accusing the Prime Minister of knowingly holding back information when the PM never had it.

"So I'd best be on my way In the early morning rain"

 

Sad news today -- Gordon Lightfoot has passed. 

I included some tweets and songs of his in a post from September, when he was at the CNE. 

The CBC has this outstanding compilation of his best songs.  Here is another compilation from Billboard magazine. 

Here are some of tonight's best tweets:

Gordon Lightfoot has died at the age of 84.
Calling him a Canadian icon or legend is an understatement.
He was one of our greatest singer-songwriters.
Born in Orillia, Ontario on Nov. 17, 1938, he had several #1 albums & songs.
He won 16 Junos.
RIP to a legend. pic.twitter.com/2VBKMZvo0o

— Craig Baird - Canadian History Ehx (@CraigBaird) May 2, 2023

The 3 Gords are now reunited ❤️🇨🇦

RIP Gordon Lightfoot pic.twitter.com/B6ujxmheUS

— 🍁Canadian Fletchy☘️ 🌻🇺🇦 (@Darth_Pingu) May 2, 2023

Weekend funnies: Nostalgia and Dark Brandon and Orcas

A little nostalgia:

The reason you think things were better when you were younger is that you were too stupid to know how bad things were then.

— Dennis Detwiller (@drgonzo123) April 28, 2023

As I contemplate our problems in 2023, I have to keep remembering: 

• when I was 8, we were practicing hiding from a nuclear war by scurrying under our school desks when our civil defense air raid siren sounded.
• when I was 13, JFK was assassinated. 
• by the time I was 15, tens of thousands of American boys were fighting in Vietnam. 
• when I was 17, RFK and MLK were assassinated, and there were riots in Chicago and Detroit and Los Angeles, and Nixon was elected. 
• when I was 19, the Ohio National Guard killed four students at Kent State; the FLQ kidnapped James Cross and Pierre LaPorte, and Trudeau pere declared the War Measures Act 

So yes, sometimes things were bad when I was younger. 

I didn't have any solutions then, either, except to #AlwaysVoteLeft.

 

Moving on - Andrew Coyne isn't impressed with Pierre Poilievre anymore (if he ever was):

It will just be more stupid little Harperian wedge issues, only with more conspiracy theories and culture wars.

— Andrew Coyne 🇺🇦 (@acoyne) April 28, 2023

That's what they said about Doug Ford. Ontario is now going backwards on climate issues, dismantling the healthcare system, underfunding education and social services and turning the province into a cesspool of corruption. Don't worry, they said. Ford will be fine.

— suebaker37 #WomenAgainstPoilievre (@suebaker07) April 28, 2023

I absolutely loved this:

My president.pic.twitter.com/yVkloHzJsj

— Richard Spencer (@RichardBSpencer) April 30, 2023

COVID Update: Life Expectancy, Long Covid, and World Immunization Week

We got our semi-annual booster today so Covid is on my mind tonight. 

It's still hard to grasp the impact of the Covid pandemic worldwide until you realize how many millions have died, with millions more left to mourn. 

In Forbes magazine, healthcare analysis Joshua Cohen writes about Covid 19's enormous death toll:

Thus far, recorded Covid-19 deaths worldwide are at 6.86 million. This is likely an underestimate, given the underreporting of fatalities in countries, such as China. More importantly, based on excess mortality calculations there’s mounting evidence that the Covid-19 pandemic has taken a massive toll on global life expectancy. Not since the famine in China in 1959, have we seen such a sharp decline in life expectancy worldwide.

...In sum, the Covid-19 pandemic has led to global increases in mortality and declines in period life expectancy that are without precedent in modern times. Historically, countries have generally recovered within two years from mortality shocks, such as the 1918-20 influenza pandemic and the two world wars. And so, we can expect many countries to soon return to pre-Covid-19-pandemic life expectancy. However, each country’s ability to bounce back differs, and some, like the U.S., will likely have more trouble than others because of underlying health trends that had been in place before the pandemic. 

“Global life expectancy has dropped two years in a row for the first time since 1959, and if it drops again in 2022 this will be historically unprecedented in modern history.” pic.twitter.com/jFEX68wahI

— Dr. Lucky Tran (@luckytran) March 4, 2023

2) Life expectancy of Canada 🇨🇦 vs US 🇺🇸 during the early pandemic. One failed miserably in 2020 and 2021 pic.twitter.com/AviNyvirke

— Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) March 9, 2023

Though Canada's life expectancy also declined in 2020, it didn't plummet like the US did.

Weekend funnies: From steam-punk to Ted Lasso to a golfer dog

An historian Craig Baird is using AI to generate "steam-punk" versions of Canadian legends. Here's a couple:

4. Farley Mowat

One of Canada's most beloved writers, his books have been transl

5. Rita Joe

Called the Poet Laureate of the Mi'kmaq People, Rita Joe survived Residential School and relearned her language & culture. Her poems often outlined her experiences at the school.
Rita Joe Day is celebrated in Nova Scotia every Feb. 20.

🧵5/10 pic.twitter.com/GcF53hwZYD

— Craig Baird - Canadian History Ehx (@CraigBaird) April 23, 2023

ated into 52 languages and sold 17 million copies. His best known books are People of the Deer and Never Cry Wolf. His books often had an environmental focus.

🧵4/10 pic.twitter.com/Ea7ABY8q7z

— Craig Baird - Canadian History Ehx (@CraigBaird) April 23, 2023

And Peggy Atwood loved hers:

This is pretty wonderful! Who did it? Artist or a i ? Where can I get one? :) love the ticking hat… https://t.co/xEhprF6uCz

— Margaret E. Atwood (@MargaretAtwood) April 23, 2023

I loved this one, too:

This is the Twitter content that I am staying here for 👇 https://t.co/7A0wTx8viw

— Dr. Fiona Mattatall 🪩 (@FionaMattatall) April 22, 2023

Today's edition of "Christ, what an asshole"

So today our hero Elon Musk struck a blow for the working man by taking away those elitist blue verification checks!

Sort of.

I'll never be as rich as this man, but at least I'll never be as pathetic either pic.twitter.com/g7ulABeWbo

— Mike Drucker (@MikeDrucker) April 20, 2023

this is honestly the most comically ridiculous thing ever. paying? please. there's still verification, only now it's some kind of weird passive aggressive thing Musk personally decides on? https://t.co/Y8JhC2U9Bb

— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) April 21, 2023

Musk is pretending that celebrities like Stephen King and LeBron James, who said they would not pay for Twitter, are paying for Twitter, got called on it, and admitted he is paying their fees.
Feel like they should be labeled "Musk funded media" pic.twitter.com/2xFbEqWpLz

— Don Moynihan (@donmoyn) April 20, 2023

There used to be actual value to the blue marks, like showing people who to listen to when they needed help. 
Like, for instance, the City of New York. 

But Musk has once again demonstrated he doesn't understand what he is doing:

The Elon clusterfuck is ON pic.twitter.com/4dRlYq8GLz

— Kara Swisher (@karaswisher) April 20, 2023

Around the Substacks: from Van Gogh Sneakers, to Delaware courts, to Pierre Poilievre and the CBC

First up, here is an example of the type of creative thing that AI can now do: Van Gogh Sneakers! 

For anyone interested in creating fascinating stuff via AI (Artificial Intelligence),  Ethan Mollick has written a One Useful Thing article: How to How to use AI to do practical stuff: A new guide. Here is his introduction

The first thing people try to do with AI is what it is worst at; using it like Google...

Second, they may try something speculative, using it like Alexa, and asking a question, often about the AI itself. Will AI take my job? What do you like to eat? These answers are also terrible.

If people still stick around, they start to ask more interesting questions, either for fun or based on half-remembered college essay prompts: Write an article on why ducks are the best bird. Why is Catcher in the Rye a good novel? These are better. As a result, people see blocks of text on a topic they don’t care about very much...They usually quit around now, convinced that everyone is going to use this to cheat at school, but not much else.

All of these uses are not what AI is actually good at, and how it can be helpful. They can blind you to the real power of these tools.

To find out more, read the whole article - https://www.oneusefulthing.org/p/how-to-use-ai-to-do-practical-stuff.