Saturday, August 10, 2024

Today's News: Ukraine's Kursk invasion


Here is a roundup from some of the better sources of Ukraine Russia War information, with their analysis about the recent surprising, and surprisingly successful, Kursk offensive:
Post by @ianbremmer
View on Threads
As the war in Ukraine settled into a stalemate, two assumptions became prevalent among analysts: First, that it is nearly impossible to achieve any surprise on a battlefield blanketed by drones. Second, that it is nearly impossible to mount fast-moving offensive operations, given the extensive defenses erected by both sides. Ukraine has challenged both assumptions over the past few days with its surprise, lightning-fast thrust into Russia’s Kursk region — an area familiar to military historians as the site, during World War II, of the biggest tank battle in history.
The Ukrainian military shocked the entire world — and the Russian defenders — when it sent an armored column on Tuesday across the border from Ukraine’s Sumy region. There had been cross-border raids by Ukraine before, but those were much smaller operations conducted by Russian volunteers. This was something much more ambitious: a combined-arms offensive utilizing armored vehicles (some of them German- and U.S.-made), infantry, artillery and electronic-warfare equipment. Ukraine reportedly committed elements of four elite brigades to the operation....
The Kyiv Independent
... For everyone involved and invested in Ukraine’s struggle for existence, but especially for its leaders, maintaining a clear grip on reality was, is, and will be, crucial.
In the industrial-scale war on our hands here, the only reality that matters is the reality on the battlefield. The battlefield is where Russia is convinced it can win its war, and the battlefield is where it must be convinced that it cannot.
And so, whether we are talking about high-level strategic deliberations in Washington, Brussels, and Kyiv, bilateral communication channels, or information policy vis-a-vis the public, it all has to be closely tied to that battlefield reality.
Kyiv and the West must not let themselves sleepwalk into a losing war in Ukraine; for Ukraine and the free world, there is still so much to lose.

Phillips's Newsletter
... The Ukrainians are showing the capability to manufacture, plan and execute effective far-range strikes into Russia. They could threaten Russian power generation in the way that Russia has threatened theirs, they can hit military facilities, transportation systems, etc.
This will mean Russia will either have to defend much more, or simply decide to risk it. We have seen the last winter what happens when vital infrastructure cant be defended. When Ukraine was starved of vital anti-air weaponry from the USA, the Russians launched their most successful campaign of the war—their attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure.
Russia will have to consider itself vulnerable to something similar this winter.
Mick Ryan's Futura Doctrina:
...Ukraine must begin planning for how best to capitalize on Russia’s impending wane. Doing so will not be easy: its people are suffering, and many of the factors that will determine its success are beyond its control. Kyiv, for example, cannot determine when or where Russian forces will culminate, and it cannot be certain that the West will provide continuous support. But Ukraine can closely study the battlefield for signs of Russian weakness. It can work with NATO to train and prepare for new offensives. It can manage outside expectations. And it can devise a new theory of victory—one that makes Russia’s military position truly untenable. It is then, and only then, that Ukraine will be able to negotiate on favorable terms and secure a durable win.
At Balloon Juice, Adam Silverman writes a nightly Ukraine roundup post:
... the Ukrainians are trying to demonstrate to the Biden administration, as well everyone else, that the emperor – Putin – has no clothes. That no matter what red lines he declares, no matter what he says he’ll do if they’re breached, such as tactically using nukes during a conventional war, these are just agitprop and hollow threats in order to establish reflexive control over the leaders of his adversaries in order to give himself a preemptive veto in their decision-making process. I also think they have studied Prigozhin’s aborted revolt from a little over a year ago, how Putin personally responded, and how Russia’s military, security services, and law enforcement were unable to do anything to actually stop his Wagner mercenaries. I think they have a very, very, very good understanding of what Russia is an is not able to do to actually defend itself within its own borders and is exploiting those weaknesses.
And remember all those times in the last two years when Russia apologists and fellow travellers were saying that Ukraine should just abandon the territories now occupied by Russia and sign a peace deal with Russia? Well, Kinzinger is calling them out now:
Posted by at

No comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)