Saturday, August 31, 2024

Wrapping up the week: why Poilievre really wants an election; why Harris still needs to work really hard



Why Poilievre wants an early election: Too late! Looking to the United States, we see that Democrats still need to be the grownups while Republicans can still act like children Josh Marshall sums up The State Of The Race:
... in June and July, Joe Biden was looking at a map where the only clear road to victory was through the Blue Wall states, so plausible victory was holding the Blue Wall and winning with literally a single electoral vote. Harris now has multiple paths to victory. She can win in the Blue Wall states. She could win with a mix of Blue Wall or Southern Tier states. She could win them all. Simply put, she has options. She has to fight for every one of them. But she doesn’t have to win every one of them. And Donald Trump is fairly close to having to win every one of them.
Let’s remind ourselves that a two-to-four point lead for Harris isn’t necessarily a “lead.” It’s the range a Democrat needs to be in to overcome Republicans’ Electoral College advantage...
... Donald Trump has no better than a tie now in four or five states, all of which he needs to win: Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania. That’s not a good place to be. At the moment Harris is nominally ahead in all but one of those states.
...I like where Harris is at this point in the cycle. It’s infinitely better than where Biden was even though numerically speaking they’re not dramatically different. But this is going to be hard slog all the way to November 5th.
Finally, this --  off topic but beautiful:
Post by @aptnnews
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