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Saturday, March 06, 2004

Finally -- The Big Picture: Projected Electoral College Vote, 2004 I've been looking for some analysis like this -- though the electoral systems are different, the "popular vote" is somewhat meaningless compared to the electoral college (US) or riding (Canada) vote. So I get frustrated reading 1,000-person election polls in both our countries which don't factor in the locations of support. In Canada, support in the four western provinces for a party is often meaningless in the end, because we have so few ridings compared to Ontario and Quebec. That said, a candidate with popularity of 60 per cent or more in either country will win. Its when the polls show popularity in the 45 to 55 per cent range (where Bush and Kerry are now, depending on which poll you read) that the location of their support becomes crucial.

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