Oh, I really hope the Telegraph is wrong and these guys are right:
It comes as sources told The Times that Nato had sent an intelligence report to its members and allies alerting them to the fact that Russia is expected to test its nuclear-capable torpedo drone Poseidon, possibly in the Black Sea, which it controlshttps://t.co/NfTI1gMQZ0 pic.twitter.com/hNhxyW7mTj— Telegraph World News (@TelegraphWorld) October 3, 2022
Given how poorly they have done everything else in this war, if Russia does try to play nuclear chicken with the West then it likely won't work out very well for Russia. But as Ukraine wins back more and more of its territory, Putin will be increasingly desperate:
Could not agree more. The footage we've seen shows nothing more than engineering equipment. Most likely scenario? Russia is commandeering niche vehicles for use on the battlefield. https://t.co/eDZL8ZoSU7— The Intel Crab (@IntelCrab) October 3, 2022
Canada's decision to support NATO membership for Ukraine surprised me, because in the past it seemed that NATO had always backed away from provoking Putin too much.
Russia no longer has full control of any of four ‘annexed’ Ukrainian provinces. https://t.co/q9fOtp2RGB— Diane Marie 🇺🇦 (@DianeMariePosts) October 4, 2022
Fukuyama is making a prediction:
Canada supports Ukraine's bid to join @NATO, said Foreign Affairs Minister @melaniejoly, and that Canada must, "redouble efforts for the Ukrainian people."— Julie Dzerowicz (@JulieDzerowicz) October 3, 2022
Read more here: https://t.co/EePV6u1zW5
#NATOPA #NATO #DavenportTO @NATOCanada @natopapress
This was true yesterday, but may no longer be true now:
Fukuyama makes observation and prediction. People mock Fukuyama on basis of misunderstanding stemming from the title of one of his long-ago books. Fukuyama's observation and prediction turn out to be pretty well-founded. Repeat.— Dan Gardner (@dgardner) October 3, 2022
The cycle of history in the post-history age. https://t.co/Myscml0C6p
Yes. But surely you agree that if Moscow goes nuclear, that means that from that moment on, any conventional counteraction will be met with another Russian nuclear reaction? Like with knife gangs: one day, one gang starts using guns. Do you think it will go back to using knives?— Otto von Bismarck (@ultimiratio) October 3, 2022
Elon Musk, of course, is popping in to promote the stupid "Putin needs an off-ramp" idea.
.@Angry_Staffer is spot on. A reminder: 2 days ago, Putin announced an annexation of Ukraine’s sovereign territory, then shot missiles at civilians. Why would anyone recommend an off-ramp for Putin? https://t.co/dUHLE5cFTQ— Mark Hertling (@MarkHertling) October 2, 2022
Elon Musk suggests Ukraine should be "neutral" in Russia's war in Ukraine and in an approach to peace, and says Crimea is "formally part of Russia" (US/other allies recognize Crimea is Ukrainian).— Shannon Vavra (@shanvav) October 3, 2022
Ukraine's Ambassador to Germany weighs in: "Fuck off is my very diplomatic reply"
This is moral idiocy, repetition of Kremlin propaganda, a betrayal of Ukrainian courage & sacrifice, and puts a few minutes browsing Crimea on Wikipedia over the current horrific reality of Putin's bloody war. https://t.co/63rmDmqTzb— Garry Kasparov (@Kasparov63) October 3, 2022
And I praised you as so many did for those acts. But should good deeds purchase immunity for later bad ones, or should every act & statement be judged on its merits? Should Ukrainians who thanked you for Starlink be silent when you spread Kremlin talking points against them?— Garry Kasparov (@Kasparov63) October 4, 2022
Zelenskyy tweets back, and Musk responds:
The most interesting thing about that Elon Musk trial balloon is the reveal that Russian sources of the proposal feel in danger of losing Crimea on the battlefield— David Frum (@davidfrum) October 3, 2022
I still very much support Ukraine, but am convinced that massive escalation of the war will cause great harm to Ukraine and possibly the world.— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 3, 2022
actually, the US government also paid millions for Starlink terminals for Ukraine.
Not fair, sir. Have you seen all those kickass Ukrainian cats?— Lorenzo The Cat (@LorenzoTheCat) October 3, 2022
In news about the war itself, Ukraine continues to advance quickly -- Markos describes how they do it so much better than the Russians did:
It’s a shame that the brain doesn’t alert you when it’s empty like the stomach does— rihanna’s cupid bow (@ririscupidbow) October 2, 2022
Markos goes on to write about the misery that is now the Russian army, and how the mobilization is a disaster. Along with some horrific stories of how the new recruits are treated, he includes these tweets:The Russian approach to taking a city is to lay waste to it with artillery, then send cannon fodder ahead in “reconnaissance by fire.” If defenses remain, sure you lose some cheap infantry, but artillery has a better idea of where those defenses remain and it opens up again. Rinse, lather, and repeat until no resistance remains....Ukraine does it differently. They avoid direct urban warfare, cutting off a town’s supply lines until just one road out is left. This forces Russia to abandon hardened defensive positions lest they remain trapped, a la Mariupol. Thing is, armor is not the best escape vehicle—it breaks down and is slow, using up a great deal of diesel that may already be in short supply. So it’s easier to abandon the heavy stuff, steal some civilian vehicles, and hightail it out of dodge at top speed. Ukrainian artillery can target those roads, and many won’t make it out, but many do. End result, towns like Lyman are liberated with very little damage to their infrastructure. Not only does this encircle-and-starve-out approach save Ukrainian lives, but it moves the front much faster than Russia’s wasteful rinse-lather-repeat approach.And here’s the bonus—Ukraine doesn’t even need to stick around for a town to surrender. It can leave a blocking force behind to pin down the Russian garrison as the spearhead races ahead.
Dire conditions of the Russian Army. This video is from Russian social media & was filmed by one of the mobilized who was sent to Omsk. They spend days & nights in the open field, eat what they have & drink. No command, no uniform, no barracks, no tents, no sleeping bags. pic.twitter.com/HWmDVa5EHV— Viktor Kovalenko (@MrKovalenko) October 3, 2022
I also saw this tweet today -- wouldn't this just shatter the world, if China decides to risk invading Taiwan while North America and Europe are focused on Ukraine:
2/ In a military unit near Moscow, contract servicemen wanted to take away some of the mobilised men's equipment and telephones. This did not work: the newcomers simply beat up the "oldtimers".— ChrisO (@ChrisO_wiki) October 3, 2022
Moving on to other news, here's a story I couldn't resist:
Ominous sign #China is quietly preparing to invade #Taiwan— Indo-Pacific News - Geo-Politics & Military News (@IndoPac_Info) October 3, 2022
China is quietly preparing civilian ferries for war & experts are becoming more convinced it is gearing up for something serious
As I've been saying for a few months. October is a dangerous monthhttps://t.co/CTQiIs3oS8