Today's News: Update on the Russia Ukraine War

I haven't seen as much about the Russia Ukraine War lately. So tonight I wanted to highlight 

some recent tweets and articles to summarize the situation:

Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 13 June 2022

Find out more about the UK government's response: https://t.co/tMxM9CXCRe

🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/oV79kZBRi6

— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) June 13, 2022

One interesting tweet I saw today was this estimation of just how large this war is

⚡️ Commander: Active hostilities ongoing across 1,105 kilometers of frontline.

According to the chief of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, Valery Zaluzhny, the frontlines constitute 2,450 kilometers in total.

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) June 13, 2022

Based on the numbers in this tweet, the Russia Ukraine War "active hostilities" line is the equivalent of the distance from Winnipeg to Calgary.  Its "frontline" in total would stretch from Winnipeg to Vancouver. 

That is a huge distance for military forces to try to cover, even if each army has more than a hundred thousand troops. 

Here is a lengthy thread from Mike Martin which summarizes the important conflicts in the war now:

Not much has happened around Kharkiv. A few weeks ago the Ukrainians pushed the Russians back almost to the international border (the Russians had stripped out lots of forces to go to the East). Since then there has been some backwards and forwards but not much change.

— Dr Mike Martin ⛵️ (@ThreshedThought) June 12, 2022

Kherson is important for two reasons. Firstly the Russians were gonna hold a referendum there and declare it part of Russia. You don’t hear much about that any more.

— Dr Mike Martin ⛵️ (@ThreshedThought) June 12, 2022

If the Russians hold it they have a launch pad for future incursions or invasions into Russia after the conflict ends.

If the Ukrainians take it back then the country is a lot more defendable going forward.

— Dr Mike Martin ⛵️ (@ThreshedThought) June 12, 2022

Looking eastward, here is Mike Martin's next comment:

What is interesting about the city of severodonetsk is that there is a river behind the Ukrainian forces and high ground on the other bank: that is, if the Ukrainians do withdraw they have a very defendable position (and they have prepared defences there).

— Dr Mike Martin ⛵️ (@ThreshedThought) June 12, 2022

Firstly, that neither army has the capacity for manoeuvre. We knew the Russians didn’t, but I previously overestimated the ability of the Ukrainians to manoeuvre. At best the ukr have been able to fight and attritional defence inflicting high casualties on the Russians.

— Dr Mike Martin ⛵️ (@ThreshedThought) June 12, 2022

Overall time is the most interesting factor. The longer Ukraine can hold, the better it gets for them as more western weapons come online and sanctions start to build.

— Dr Mike Martin ⛵️ (@ThreshedThought) June 12, 2022

In an interesting article broadly covering the situation in several areas of the front, Markos at 

Daily Kos gives this useful description of how Russia is fighting this war: 

 ...Russia has honed its one winning strategy—flatten a town, send in some poor souls to see if any defenses remain. That probe gets smacked? Oh well. Must’ve sucked! Turn rubble into smaller rubble. Send in next probe. Lather, rinse, repeat, until all that’s left is dust and craters. Move on to the next town. 

...But if Russia’s rate of advance is microscopic, that still doesn’t mean Ukraine is in better position to retake lost ground. Ukraine faces the same challenges Russian does—in their cautious counter-offensives around Kherson, Kharkiv, and Izyum areas, advancing Ukrainian troops are at the mercy of Russian artillery fire. The country’s wide-open and mostly-flat terrain (plus the proliferation of drones) is ill-suited for sneak attacks. Meanwhile, Russia has been busy digging its own fortifications around key Ukrainian avenues of advance. 

The biggest challenge won’t be stopping Russia, it will be reversing their existing gains. And that’s where the outcome of this war gets hazy. Russia won’t meet its goals, but that doesn’t mean Ukraine will either. 

 And in other news, a Resistance is forming in the parts of Ukraine now occupied by Russia:

There are signs that a nascent Ukrainian insurgency is growing in potency, allowing Ukraine's military to deliver deadly strikes on Russian-controlled territory. https://t.co/qP579nqioP

— The New York Times (@nytimes) June 11, 2022

Here's an interesting summary article about the varying opinions among European nations:

What next? Ukraine's allies divided over Russia endgame https://t.co/TShfZdgFPy pic.twitter.com/EaHFArTDTf

— Reuters (@Reuters) June 13, 2022

Finally, here's some happy news:

Double wedding of the Ukrainian paratroopers from 25th Brigade in the area close to the front line.
Olha+Vladyslav=💙
Khrystyna+Mykola=💛#UAarmy pic.twitter.com/iQkDCo4Jze

— Defence of Ukraine (@DefenceU) June 12, 2022